Implications of an La Nina winter for La Ventana/Baja winds

[rationalnational]

[quote="tstizzle"]

[tstizzle]

i defaulted to los barilles because of proximity to the cabo corridor. but i went to ventana as well in my searching.

don't get me wrong, i love baja. like i said, i go there for at least one week a year. it's has a great zen thing going on, seafood, nice culture, etc. i'm not trying to poo-poo it.

rather, i'm just stating that if you want wind: good, strong, reliable, consistent, predictable, bankable wind, and nothing else matters (for me, that's the definition of a windsurfing vacation), there's absolutely no way baja will hold a candle to lake arenal in costa rica.

arenal has strong wind (almost) every single day. day in and day out. all winter season.

[niknas]

[esteban]

I have been going to baja for 24 years for at least 2-6 months a year during the windy season, mostly to La Ventana. It typically starts blowing in early october and blows into april, sometime even into June! El Nino years are typically wetter and less wind, La Nina drier and more wind, since this is a big La Nina it should be good which for me at 190lbs means 5.2 is the bread n butter sail...used to be 4.7 many years ago so maybe it will be back to that this season( i hope). I ahve sailed down to a 3.2 there but thats very rare, usual range for me is 4.2 to 5.7. La Ventana blows more than Los Barriles because in addtion to the "el Norte" frontal winds it also has a local thermal effect can be quite strong- which is why I started a windsurfing center there!

www.ventanawindsports.com

[MCDORO]

Googled it. Nothing much about wind. Lots of talk about rainfall amounts. La Nina is associated with dry central and southern Pacific Coast winters. Since much of the wind in winter is powered by low pressure systems that are the rain-makers, I assume we are facing a less-than-average wind/winter. That would include Baja, because their source of winter wind is much the same as the coast of California...Low pressure systems out of the Gulf of Alaska. Hope this is wrong.

[MalibuGuru]

High pressure over S. California is the setup. I remember sailing S. Baja in the 1980's when we had alot of high pressure, and other years not much. If I were a betting man I'd say this year won't be that windy. We haven't had any high pressure this summer, although we are finally supposed to warm up later this week for the 1st time this summer. (even though summer just ended)

Look for Santa Ana's.

[esteban]

ask anyone who paid attention to the S Baja winds in an El Nino year compared to a La Nina and you will find most all will say the latter is windier, and thats what I have seen and would bet on, hope I am right!
Where is Mike Godsey on this thread?

[windfind]

Mike Godsey here,

You have to remember that El Niño and La Niña are global events so trying to connect them to the wind at any specific windsurfing site is problematic. But having read a lot about the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle and having gone through both patterns many times while forecasting winter winds in La Ventana I will take a stab at answering your questions. I will have a detailed account in the Baja Guide starting Oct. 1.
http://www.iwindsurf.com/travel.iws?genID=22


In an El Niño the average storm track is further south than normal so there is lots of rain in Southern California and northern Baja. This means there are fewer high pressure events in the 4 corners area that are critical in making the big El Norte wind events and even the weaker El Norte winds that augment the modest La Ventana local sea breezes. Also, since there is little wind in the northern Sea of Cortez the swell has a shorter fetch and averages a smaller size in La Ventana.

In La Niña the storm track averages much further north than noral so in theory high pressure develops easier in the 4 corners and Baja has more El Norte events and the whole Sea of Cortez can blow so even 5.0 winds make Gorge size or larger swell (but not as steep).

But there are two catches:

1. The subtropical jet stream, which normally is not a player in Baja wind can bring very high clouds that stream over Baja's East Cape heading towards Texas. These can stay overhead in the Baja's East Cape area for many days really killing the pressure gradient that causes the wind to curve into the beach.

2. Sometime in a La Niña storms come over the California coast in fast succession so there is no time for high pressure to build in the 4 corners so the Baja winds stay weak. This can also weaken the wind for days on end. In both cases the kite action stays pretty reliable but windsurfing requires really large sails.

In summary:

In a normal year even a 1 week vacation will usually land you 3-5 days or more sailing in La Ventana.

In an El Niño year like last year a longer trip is advised and there can be longer spells with only kite wind.

In La Niña year like the one developing you will most likely have epic conditions and reliable wind with huge swell but with bad luck you could also have a week with little wind. So take the longest trip possible.

And any year there can be a spells where no storms hit the California coast for a week or more so there is no inbound high pressures systems in the 4 corners and Baja has only kite or 6.5 winds. This normally happens 2-3 times per winter.

So tstizzle is right in this La Niña year. If you only have time for a short 5-7 day vacation consider Arenal. It will more likely deliver day after day of really strong wind and choppy B&J conditions.

But Esteban is also correct, if you have a longer vacation consider Baja. This is especially true if you are addicted to very large mellow swell. Not to mention the spectacular beauty, kayaking, biking, fishing, hiking etc.


coboardhead "asked do I need the 65 l board?" Answer: If depends upon your wt. and skill level. The La Ventana winds typical start at or very close to the beach. At 185lbs. a 5.2 and 4.7 are my basic sails but I am on a floaty 90L board. Since La Ventana has mostly relatively smooth swell you can use a larger board than you would in the Bay Area. But some people prefer a smaller board and a 5.7 or larger on the light days. Incidentally, for Gorge sailors that range wind sounds very modest but there is a huge difference swell wise in a fetch of 800 miles versus only a few miles at most Gorge sites. So the endless big swell rides make it pretty damn exciting. Plus there are several places with breaking waves and decent surf riding.


I will be in La Ventana this winter doing FREE daily Baja forecasts. Contact me at mike@iwindsurf.com if you need any advice for your Baja trip or want people to caravan with on the drive down. Rumor has it that isobars will be making his first trip this year!

And thanks for those of you who sent me onsite wind reports this last weekend for the Rolex Cup Big Boat Series races. The yacht I was forecasting all of the races for won First Place for the second year in a row in extremely difficult forecasting conditions. Stoked!!!!! Now if I could only do as well with windsurfing forecasts!

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com

[coboardhead]

Thanks for the great explanation.

I apologize, It was really a rhetorical question. Of course, no one can answer that question.

I have been very blessed with wind on ALL of my trips to Baja. Short or long stays. You just can't be afraid rig up the big gear or kite once in a while.

[tstizzle]