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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1764

PostPosted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 1:42 pm    Post subject: New Link: Worst heatwave since the 19th century. Reply with quote

Look at the headlines below and the fawn seeking refuge from the Pacific Northwest's worst heatwave since the 19th century. How did we get here?

This blog tells the story with images:
https://blog.weatherflow.com/blog/west-coast-wind-blog-history-breaking-heat-wave-for-pacific-northwest/

Mike Godsey
weatherflow.com
Blog: https://blog.weatherflow.com/category/cali-baja/san-fran/
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Photography: https://windnotes.smugmug.com



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Last edited by windfind on Mon Jun 28, 2021 8:33 am; edited 1 time in total
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 20712

PostPosted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 8:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sorry, guys 'n gals, but people from the southeast U.S. aren't impressed.

Kennewick, WA at 115 degrees and a RH of 14% (i.e., today) produces a heat index of 114.

A hot day in the inland SE U.S. (100 degrees, raining) produces a heat index of 194. I witnessed a day at 105 degrees and 100%, for a heat index of 234. I've played tennis in generally comparable conditions in Tallahassee.

Boo freaking hoo. Smile
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bmmiller



Joined: 23 May 2007
Posts: 108

PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2021 9:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I usually don't get involved in the forums, but Isobars claims are just plain false unless he was on another planet.

The highest Heat Index in recorded history on Earth was nowhere near 234F or even 194F, but rather 178F and in Iran. (FYI ... 178F Heat Index is already completely insane and life threatening.) The highest ever substantiated dew point in the US was also not in the Southeast, but rather in the Upper Midwest and it was 90F, which, if you're wondering, is extreme.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/record-dew-point-temperatures.html
https://www.chicagotribune.com/weather/ct-wea-0811-asktom-20160810-column.html

Yes, the Southeast is hot and humid. Yes, Heat Indexes exceed 120F each summer. But the extreme heat the Pacific Northwest is having is still setting records for recorded history and is not something to scoff at.
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17106
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2021 10:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Seldom in doubt, occasionally correct.
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1764

PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2021 10:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Gang,

To pull an "Isobar"*

I grew up in the deep south, mostly in a town whose population went up 50% when my military family of 13 settled there. In Alabama, I played high school varsity football in sweltering conditions for years. So I course I know everything about Heat Index and how people respond to it <b>sar</b>. I also remember how the whole town shut down when there was 1 inch of snow and the temperature dropped below 30. Having lived in South Dakota "I was not impressed".

In the windsurfing/kiting mecca La Ventana Baja when the daytime temps are in the 60's all the tourists are in shorts and T-shirts. But they are puzzled to see all the locals in jackets and knit caps. Even weirder, gringos who have moved to La Ventana permanently are also end up wearing heavy clothes.

So the question is why are temperatures that seem trivial in one part of the country considered life-threatening in another part?

It is called thermal acclimatization. The human body has the ability to physiologically acclimatize to hot or cold conditions over a period of time.

Greatly simplified, When humans live in a hot environment for a while the volume of sweat increases. Urine volume also reduces. In addition, vasodilation of peripheral blood capillaries causes flushing as more blood is close to the surface. That allows heat transfer from the core body areas to the surface where it can be dissipated easily into the environment by radiation. So the heat is a minor issue once you have acclimatized. The converse happens if you live in a cold environment.

So when Isobars played tennis in Tallahassee his body was probably fully acclimatized to that heat and it was nothing to him. But most people west of the Cascades are not remotely acclimatized to such heat nor do they have AC. So this is a big deal to them just like that snow in Alabama.

There is another reason this heatwave is a big deal for the Pacific Northwest. Meteorologists put weather events in perspective by comparing them to the average for that region. Mathematically the sigma is the standard deviation from a normal distribution of the expected climate variable. For this heatwave, the sigma max is 4.4. In simple terms, there is about one chance in 10,000 of such an event. That is news.

There are some updates to the blog: https://blog.weatherflow.com/west-coast-wind-blog-history-breaking-heat-wave-for-pacific-northwest/

Mike Godsey

* to talk or argue mostly by referring to yourself or your experiences rather than the topic at hand.


Last edited by windfind on Mon Jun 28, 2021 5:43 pm; edited 1 time in total
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coachg



Joined: 10 Sep 2000
Posts: 3290

PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2021 3:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That is why we had Green, Yellow, Red & Black flags in the Marine Corps. Depending on how long you were stationed at Quantico it may be a Yellow flag for one person while a Green flag for another.

Coachg
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AlexM



Joined: 03 Jun 2005
Posts: 47
Location: Mosier, Oregon

PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2021 4:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't know much about statistics, but it strikes me that windfind's estimate that the probability of a heatwave like this is 1 in 10,000 must be too low. The past couple of days have set all-time records for high temperature in many places in the area. If we assume that these records go back 100 years (in most cases they probably go back further), then the probability that there will be a new record high on any given day - e.g., specifically on June 28 - will be 1/100, or 1%. But the probability of an all-time record would be 1% X 365 days X 100 years of records, or in other words 1 in 36,500. Moreover, in many cases all-time records were set on both Saturday and Sunday, and perhaps will be exceeded again today. Finally, many of the new records didn't just exceed the old records by a mere degree or two - they completely blew past them! For example, the old all-time record at PDX was 107 - yesterdays' new record was 112! So while a 1 in 10,000 probability is nothing to sniff at, I think we're experiencing something even more rarified than that Rolling Eyes
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 20712

PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2021 5:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My heat index calculation source is NOAA. What's yours, Miller?

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/heatindex.shtml

As for my lack of sympathy, you guys completely ignored my Smile

This is a hobby forum, not Newton's Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica. How does adding brief personal experiences to illustrate barren technical points warrant insults?

Besides, if my 9 words of illustrative personal example is so egregious, where does that leave the 9 lines Godsey wrote:

I grew up in the deep south, mostly in a town whose population went up 50% when my military family of 13 settled there. In Alabama, I played high school varsity football in sweltering conditions for years. So I course I know everything about Heat Index and how people respond to it <b>sac</b>. I also remember how the whole town shut down when there was 1 inch of snow and the temperature dropped below 30. Having lived in South Dakota "I was not impressed".


An inch? Walnut Grove, AL got 20" overnight, and I witnessed 18" overnight in Huntsville. Stuff happens.

As do insults, apparently.

BTW, cold kills 1,900% more people than heat. Look it up.

Don't you guys EVER get tired of your constantly backfiring Isohominem?
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isobans



Joined: 08 Aug 2010
Posts: 79

PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2021 10:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And while you're at it, stop implying your lives matter more than every non-black's. ALL lives matter, at least until their voluntary, deliberate behavior proves otherwise. (Let's face it: whose life matters and contributes more to society ... the shopkeeper or the piece of garbage who beats the shopkeeper into oblivion and torches his shop for freaking kicks?)

Oh, Jesus Christ, mac ... I haven't even looked at your no-doubt-stupid post, but the title alone reinforces our conclusion made years ago that forums serve only one purpose for you: stir up the porta potty, add still more shit to it, and pour it into the parking lot to see how much trouble and hatred you can generate among a group who should be friends.

I agree with Dr. Laura's tirade: OF COURSE it's the woman's right to choose ... WHETHER TO SPREAD HER LEGS. Beyond that point biology takes over. Neither she nor Obama has the right to let a viable newborn die on the slab just because Mommy Dearest no longer wants it.



-iso 2020
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merriam



Joined: 28 Apr 2008
Posts: 93

PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2021 10:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BTW, cold kills 1,900% more people than heat. Look it up.



That figure seemed ridiculous to me so I did look it up. Apparently in the US heat kills many times more than cold.

https://www.weather.gov/hazstat/
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