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Models WAY off again

 
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ShreddinEd



Joined: 27 Mar 1994
Posts: 172

PostPosted: Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:03 am    Post subject: Models WAY off again Reply with quote

I check the computer models both mobile and web fairly regularly and have never gotten an explanation for this. Once again, they’re diverging dramatically- mobile shows low 20s at the coast today, web only shows 11-12. What gives?
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 20720

PostPosted: Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A round trip to my "local" site burns >20 gallons of gas and eats up time I flat can't spare for a skunk, so I study about 6 forecasts, several of them independent of the others. Not only do they usually disagree, sometimes quite dramatically, but iW's pro forecast words and numbers often conflict with each other, especially when they update the text at noon and forget to update the numbers chart. No specific fx source seems more consistently accurate than the others, so it's always a fresh crapshoot based on decades of frustrating experience.

I've seen midday and evening wind summaries of THAT MORNING and THAT DAY be absurd. My "solution" has been to wait until I see the whites of the fx's eyes ... the real time wind data plots ... reach my wind threshold speed and consistency AND the radar shows no T-storms that could be causing the wind AND the gradient supports the wind speeds I see. Then I drive.

I still encounter skunks and still miss good sessions, but I did my best. No way do I have the time to drive on somebody's whim.
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 20720

PostPosted: Wed Aug 18, 2021 10:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Take Tuesday. Blew all day, averaging near 30 for hours on end. Only Gorge local windbabe and hot sailor Temira forecast it Monday AM. The pros we pay for missed it until they either read her fx Monday or looked out the window in the middle of the following night. Unfortunately, next time, or the next, she'll miss it and someone else will nail it ... or not.

That's the primary reason I no longer travel significant distances/times just to WS. Me smart ... It took me only a few (hundred) skunks to figure that out.
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