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Reliable wind predictions for Madison Wisconsin?

 
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dhmark



Joined: 04 Sep 2007
Posts: 351

PostPosted: Thu Jun 17, 2021 8:25 am    Post subject: Reliable wind predictions for Madison Wisconsin? Reply with quote

Need some help in deciding whether to shlep gear to Madison when taking my daughter to UW or save gas and take the hybrid. Windfinder says 17-23 on Monday 6/21, but what does that really mean in terms of probability of sailable wind of 16 kts or better? Thanks if you know.
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dllee



Joined: 03 Jul 2009
Posts: 5054
Location: East Bay

PostPosted: Thu Jun 17, 2021 10:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

5 days ahead?
Nobody can figure the wind out 2 days in advance.
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 20206

PostPosted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 5:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've even seen MANY evening summaries of that day be dead wrong.

Which would disappoint you most ... wasting some dead dinosaurs or missing a sailing opportunity? Even when I drove to Chicago from the Gorge to buy a motor home, I drove a rental car (instead of flying one way) with a board and a couple of rigs crammed inside Just In Case. It paid off.

What do your other forecast sources predict? I study several independent ones, as none stands out consistently and Windfnder is among the least accurate around here.
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flaherty



Joined: 01 May 1997
Posts: 429

PostPosted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 11:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Flip a coin, then go with it's outcome. No regrets this way, blame the coin, it decided, not you. As others have stated, predicting wind that far out , is 50/50 at best.
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DelCarpenter



Joined: 06 Nov 2008
Posts: 494
Location: Cedar Falls, IA

PostPosted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 1:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Achieved 37 years of windsurfing pleasure in the midwest, because I would rather slog than not windsurf. On travels in the midwest I take the board with the widest range. Right now for me that is a Kona One Design. In 2013 on an East Coast trip with only a 77 cm wide, Exocet Speed Slider I hedged my bet with a 55 cm fin with a very wide chord to guarantee being able to go upwind. I'm never trying to guarantee going fast, I'm try to guarantee being able to sail.
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dllee



Joined: 03 Jul 2009
Posts: 5054
Location: East Bay

PostPosted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 1:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ha ha, experience trumps all......
My last ever trip to CC/PI, brought 8' and 8'4" poly glass boards, and 3.5-5.2 sails.
In 22 days, sailed 14, planed......zero, not once.
But got Gladestones 4.4 on the way down, LasCrueces and San Luis on the way back.
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 20206

PostPosted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 6:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

dllee wrote:
My last ever trip to CC/PI, brought 8' and 8'4" poly glass boards, and 3.5-5.2 sails.
In 22 days, sailed 14, planed......zero, not once.

I had trips to CC like that, in Feb and March, even with a 6.8 and a 180 litre board with a centerboard. MAN, was I glad I stopped along the road when wind and water converged.
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dhmark



Joined: 04 Sep 2007
Posts: 351

PostPosted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 8:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was actually trying for more informed opinions on how to determine whether wind conditions might be favorable in Madison, as I have not yet left yet to go there. Someone who sails there might be able to direct me to sites that tend to report better than others, that the predictions tend to be high (or low), that wind in certain directions tends to produce reliable wind based on the weather system that produces it.

For example, if someone was coming to Chicago, I would tell them of course to see the latest prediction, but if the wind was predicted from the North, a 16 mph prediction would be highly likely to be sailable, whereas a Southwest reporting the same would be marginal, Northwest is not really sailable given our launch sites.
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dllee



Joined: 03 Jul 2009
Posts: 5054
Location: East Bay

PostPosted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 9:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What we all are saying, the same thing, no predictions are worth crap.
If predictions don't work for San Francisco, Columbia Gorge, and Maui.....it's probably miss miss for Burlington Vermont.
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NOVAAN



Joined: 28 Sep 1994
Posts: 1390

PostPosted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 3:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

All that said, I think he is looking for some local knowledge on the spots in that area. I know I could provide helpful information for my area. We have 5 spots within 45 min. drive. Each set up differently.
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