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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17330
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Mon Aug 29, 2022 8:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Very funny. Isobars is eager to capture the thread here, but not allow any contrary information into his brain. The issue for climate change, the substance within the bill, is developing and scaling the necessary technology to reduce emissions, and then spread that technology beyond the US. The carbon industry doesn’t want that to happen, so they spread their talking points through Murdoch media. When asked to jump, Isobars doesn’t think, he only asks “how high?”

The interesting think in the bill is that Congress (and I don’t know who did the drafting work) put incentives rather than tariffs to try bring auto manufacturing back to the US. It will be interesting to see how well it works. Of course, both higher carbon fuel costs, and emission controls on container ships, send an economic signal about where goods should be manufactured.


Too bad that Isobars doesn’t read broadly or think independently. This all goes over his head.
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 20866

PostPosted: Sun Sep 25, 2022 4:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Who ya gonna believe ... political zealots, EV salesmen, or the endless articles written by real people about their multistate EV road trips? Even though the latter articles were intended to be positive, they were real eye-rollers. They wasted so many hours at power stations that they were happy to cover 400 miles in an entire day. Besides being boring as hell and very expensive*, who's got time for that? (Unless I stopped to sail or sight-see, I often covered a thousand miles in a day, mostly on two-lane roads.)

* Dawdling in restaurants and staying in motels for 3 days costs far more than gasoline would cost even at today's prices, and the long-term effect of EVs on global temps is out in the 4th or 5th decimal place (WSJ and endless other analyses).
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17330
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fifth worst hurricane to ever make landfall. Increased in intensity by warm waters.

But I want my SUV!!!!!!!!!!

Nothing to see here. Only billions in damage.
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techno900



Joined: 28 Mar 2001
Posts: 4102

PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 3:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, maybe not.


Quote:
BY SOLCYRE BURGA SEPTEMBER 29, 2022 3:23 PM EDT
Hurricane Ian devastated southern Florida on Wednesday afternoon when it hit as a Category 4 storm, causing intense flooding and leaving 2.5 million Floridians without power.

While this storm marks the most powerful hurricane seen this season, it makes history as the ninth category 4 or 5 hurricane to hit the mainland U.S. in the last 50 years—six of which have occurred since just 2017. Five of these made landfall along the Florida coastline, with Hurricane Andrew alone causing an estimated $26 billion in damages to the state in 1992. Two others have impacted Louisiana, with the remaining hitting Texas and South Carolina.


https://time.com/6218275/strongest-hurricanes-us-map/

Damage wise? Time will tell
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17330
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

techno900 wrote:
Well, maybe not.


Quote:
BY SOLCYRE BURGA SEPTEMBER 29, 2022 3:23 PM EDT
Hurricane Ian devastated southern Florida on Wednesday afternoon when it hit as a Category 4 storm, causing intense flooding and leaving 2.5 million Floridians without power.

While this storm marks the most powerful hurricane seen this season, it makes history as the ninth category 4 or 5 hurricane to hit the mainland U.S. in the last 50 years—six of which have occurred …

https://time.com/6218275/strongest-hurricanes-us-map/

Damage wise? Time will tell


I hate to rain on Techno’s parade—for a rare occasion he has used a credible source. But before you take a victory lap with a big smug smile….

Colorado State University hurricane expert Dr. Philip Klotzbach said that Ian shares the No. 5 spot on the list with several other storms, most notably Hurricane Charley, which hit the same area in Florida in 2004 with 150 mph winds.
Quote:


Hmm, tied for fifth. Like I said.
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techno900



Joined: 28 Mar 2001
Posts: 4102

PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mac wrote:
techno900 wrote:
Well, maybe not.


Quote:
BY SOLCYRE BURGA SEPTEMBER 29, 2022 3:23 PM EDT
Hurricane Ian devastated southern Florida on Wednesday afternoon when it hit as a Category 4 storm, causing intense flooding and leaving 2.5 million Floridians without power.

While this storm marks the most powerful hurricane seen this season, it makes history as the ninth category 4 or 5 hurricane to hit the mainland U.S. in the last 50 years—six of which have occurred …

https://time.com/6218275/strongest-hurricanes-us-map/

Damage wise? Time will tell


I hate to rain on Techno’s parade—for a rare occasion he has used a credible source. But before you take a victory lap with a big smug smile….

Colorado State University hurricane expert Dr. Philip Klotzbach said that Ian shares the No. 5 spot on the list with several other storms, most notably Hurricane Charley, which hit the same area in Florida in 2004 with 150 mph winds.
Quote:


Hmm, tied for fifth. Like I said.



You may want to check out: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastint.shtml

You may take note that of the strongest 30 storms listed, 22 of them happened more than 50 years ago.
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17330
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gracious me, two credible sources from Techno in two days. A record. But let's be clear on how the different sources actually agree. The NOAA chart identifies 3 category 5 hurricanes and 15 category 4 hurricanes. I studied a few of those, like Hugo, which wiped out the restaurant I ate at, and the house that my friends stayed at, for a coastal zone conference. Ian approached the coast with fears that it would be another category 5 https://www.usatoday.com/videos/news/nation/2022/09/28/hurricane-ian-nears-landfall-just-shy-cat-5-speed/10450822002/

but was just shy. So according to those records, it is tied for fourth.

Of course, there is more to this than just the category. How much damage did it do, was that because at hit urban areas or less developed areas, how does it compare to Andrew, Hugo, and Katrina--the big ones of my life. The other one that sticks in my mind is Bertha, since I was in North Carolina and went through Topsail Beach after it hit. Katrina is not on the NOAA list (makes me wonder how old it is), but was rated a Category 5. So that makes Ian tied for fifth. Like my source said.

The other interesting thing is that on Techno's list there are only a few relatively modern hurricanes--Hugo in 1989 and Andrew in 1992. While I believe the pressure readings that are posted, they don't tell you anything about the actual size of the hurricane. Now we have much more dense data, and the size of Ian, and its tracking along the coast, makes it a whopper. Kind of like Sandy. Lest we forget, the current Governor of Florida, asking for federal disaster relief, opposed it for the Sandy victims.

Of course this is the climate thread, and the issue is that warmer water makes hurricanes more intense. It doesn't necessarily make them more common--that is a false metric--but a favorite of the deniers. Heat is the fuel. Global warming is the source of the extra heat. Deny away, mother nature bats clean-up.
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17330
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Contrary to the sources that Techno bathes his brain in:

Quote:
As Hurricane Ian barreled toward Florida this week, it did what six other storms did over the past six years as they approached the United States: It intensified, quickly.

A few factors help account for the shift, including the warming waters — fueled by climate change — that give hurricanes more energy to release through crushing winds and pounding waves. Climate scientists suspect the slow movement of storms like Ian also stems from global warming, giving them a greater opportunity to strengthen and destroy as long as day-to-day conditions remain ripe.

10 steps you can take to lower your carbon footprint
Since 2017, an unprecedented number of storms rated Category 4 or stronger have lashed the U.S. shoreline: Harvey, Irma, Maria, Michael, Laura, Ida and now Ian. They all qualify as “rapid intensification events,” when a storm’s wind speeds increase by at least 35 mph within 24 hours.


These kinds of storms have increased in number in recent decades. Sixteen of the 20 hurricanes over the past two seasons in the Atlantic basin have undergone rapid intensification.

“Especially in the near-coastal region where the hurricane is just ahead of landfall, what we are witnessing is that the hurricane intensification rates have been ramping up,” said Karthik Balaguru, a climate scientist at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. “And that is a bit disconcerting.”

Ian was only the latest case when its winds nearly doubled within a 24-hour period, going from a low-end hurricane with sustained 75 mph winds Monday to a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds Tuesday. Then, as it approached Florida on Wednesday, its winds surged even faster, going from 120 mph around 2 a.m. to 155 mph by 7 a.m.

Ian has brought ‘historic’ damage to Florida, DeSantis says; 2.6M lose power in the state

The series of intense hurricanes striking the United States since 2017 is “one of the busiest times for landfalling powerful hurricanes that we’ve seen historically,” said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University. One comparable period of hurricane activity came from 1945 to 1950, when five Category 4 hurricanes hit Florida in six years, making Klotzbach reluctant to call the series of intense storms since 2017 unprecedented.


People look on destroyed boats after Hurricane Ian swept through Fort Myers, Fla. (Cristobal Herrera-Ulashkevich/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)
And, Klotzbach added, a period of rapid strengthening is almost a prerequisite for a storm to become among the most powerful hurricanes. “The stronger the storm, the more likely it is to undergo rapid intensification,” he said.
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techno900



Joined: 28 Mar 2001
Posts: 4102

PostPosted: Sun Oct 02, 2022 9:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mac said:
Quote:
Gracious me, two credible sources from Techno in two days.


Then Mac said:
Quote:
Contrary to the sources that Techno bathes his brain in:


I guess NOAA isn't credible with him, or is it?

He may need to see someone about his considerable confusion.

For balance - From: https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-sea-surface-temperature

Quote:
Key Points

Sea surface temperature increased during the 20th century and continues to rise. From 1901 through 2020, temperature rose at an average rate of 0.14°F per decade (see Figure 1).

Sea surface temperature has been consistently higher during the past three decades than at any other time since reliable observations began in 1880 (see Figure 1).

Based on the historical record, increases in sea surface temperature have largely occurred over two key periods: between 1910 and 1940, and from about 1970 to the present. Sea surface temperature appears to have cooled between 1880 and 1910 (see Figure 1).

Changes in sea surface temperature vary regionally. While most parts of the world’s oceans have seen temperature rise, a few areas have actually experienced cooling—for example, parts of the North Atlantic (see Figure 2).
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17330
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Sun Oct 02, 2022 6:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

techno900 wrote:
Mac said:
Quote:
Gracious me, two credible sources from Techno in two days.


Then Mac said:
Quote:
Contrary to the sources that Techno bathes his brain in:


I guess NOAA isn't credible with him, or is it?

He may need to see someone about his considerable confusion.

For balance - From: https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-sea-surface-temperature

Quote:
Key Points

Sea surface temperature increased during the 20th century and continues to rise. From 1901 through 2020, temperature rose at an average rate of 0.14°F per decade (see Figure 1).

Sea surface temperature has been consistently higher during the past three decades than at any other time since reliable observations began in 1880 (see Figure 1).

Based on the historical record, increases in sea surface temperature have largely occurred over two key periods: between 1910 and 1940, and from about 1970 to the present. Sea surface temperature appears to have cooled between 1880 and 1910 (see Figure 1).

Changes in sea surface temperature vary regionally. While most parts of the world’s oceans have seen temperature rise, a few areas have actually experienced cooling—for example, parts of the North Atlantic (see Figure 2).


Techno's on a roll--three credible sources, unlike his usual red state global warming deniers. But I think it is Techno that is confused. My thesis is simple: global warming did not cause Hurricane Ian, but it made it worse.

Techno's initial response was a gotcha--it wasn't as big as I my sources said. But it was, and Techno's source lacked the modern storms. Now he posts some material about the rate of temperature increase, which is accurate, as far as it goes. But the understated inference is that increases of only 0.14 degrees per decade really aren't that big of a change to worry about.

Most of the models and scientists agree that the massive amount of heat that has been stored in the oceans--90% of the excess heat--will eventually find its way to increase global temperatures, and we will see an acceleration in both the rate of increase of global temperatures, and sea level rise. I've worked with scientists at Scripps for decades, and the most recent reports are at least sobering, if not terrifying:

Quote:
Earth’s oceans have absorbed 60 percent more heat per year than previously thought
Morgan Kelly, Princeton Environmental Institute, and Robert Monroe, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Nov. 1, 2018, 9:45 a.m.
For each year during the past quarter century, the world’s oceans have absorbed an amount of heat energy that is 150 times the energy humans produce as electricity annually, according to a study led by researchers at Princeton and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California-San Diego. The strong ocean warming the researchers found suggests that Earth is more sensitive to fossil-fuel emissions than previously thought.

Sunset on the ocean from a research boat
Ocean research scene

Photo by Abigale Wyatt, Department of Geosciences
The researchers reported in the journal Nature Nov. 1 that the world’s oceans took up more than 13 zettajoules — which is a joule, the standard unit of energy, followed by 21 zeroes — of heat energy each year between 1991 and 2016. The study was funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Princeton Environmental Institute.

First author Laure Resplandy, an assistant professor of geosciences and the Princeton Environmental Institute, said that her and her co-authors’ estimate is more than 60 percent higher per year than the figure in the 2014 Fifth Assessment Report on climate change from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

“Imagine if the ocean was only 30 feet deep,” said Resplandy, who was a postdoctoral researcher at Scripps. “Our data show that it would have warmed by 6.5 degrees Celsius [11.7 degrees Fahrenheit] every decade since 1991. In comparison, the estimate of the last IPCC assessment report would correspond to a warming of only 4 degrees Celsius [7.2 degrees Fahrenheit] every decade.”

Scientists know that the ocean takes up roughly 90 percent of all the excess energy produced as the Earth warms, so knowing the actual amount of energy makes it possible to estimate the surface warming we can expect, said co-author Ralph Keeling, a Scripps Oceanography geophysicist and Resplandy’s former postdoctoral adviser.

“The result significantly increases the confidence we can place in estimates of ocean warming and therefore helps reduce uncertainty in the climate sensitivity, particularly closing off the possibility of very low climate sensitivity,” Keeling said.

Climate sensitivity is used to evaluate allowable emissions for mitigation strategies. Most climate scientists have agreed in the past decade that if global average temperatures exceed pre-industrial levels by 2℃ (3.6℉), it is all but certain that society will face widespread and dangerous consequences of climate change.

The researchers’ findings suggest that if society is to prevent temperatures from rising above that mark, emissions of carbon dioxide, the chief greenhouse gas produced by human activities, must be reduced by 25 percent compared to what was previously estimated, Resplandy said.


Buried in that is an important distinction that is relevant to the mechanics of east coast hurricanes, and may be a surprise to Techno. The mechanics of heat storage in the ocean depends on multiple factors, but depth is a very important first order factor. In much of the world, deep oceans can store heat and slow the rate at which it is transferred to the atmosphere. But hurricanes travel over relatively shallow water, where the heat is transferred more readily. It is this rapid increase in intensity for more recent storms that define how global warming has made hurricanes more intense and deadly.
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