| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
pmartin
Joined: 10 Jul 2011
Posts: 28
|
 Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 12:38 am Post subject: Jalama This Weekend |
 |
|
Any advice for a wave sailing noob thinking of heading up to Jalama Beach this Fri/Sat? I sailed there a few weekends ago with some mellow surf and good wind and had a blast!
I understand it can get pretty hairy up there though. Just wanted to check to see what you guys think the conditions might be like this weekend?
Thanks!
|
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
mikecole
Joined: 21 Sep 2000
Posts: 164
|
| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:32 am Post subject: |
|
|
Wind forecast is no sure thing but it never is at Jalama... NWS calling for 10-20 gust to 25. I like to see 15-25 or better. Small surf for Fri/Sat so no need to worry about the extra crunchy Jalama. I like to check Harvest before I head up. My guide:
Harvest < 8ft no worries.
Harvest > 8ft < 12ft bring extra mast. Fun!
harvest > 15ft bring extra mast, courage and patience. Can be amazing if
period >= 15sec. If you are patient you'll get out between sets and scare the shit out of yourself!
Hope to meet you this weekend if it blows! Look for the older dude on hot sails that falls off and swims a lot!
Mike
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
gronquist
Joined: 12 May 2000
Posts: 70
|
| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 11:04 am Post subject: |
|
|
| agreed. I don't think it'll blow 4.2, we'll be fortunate if it's 5.5 to 5.0. No real swell. great for learning. just watch the indicators at Arguello, Vandenberg, and Conception.
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
pmartin
Joined: 10 Jul 2011
Posts: 28
|
| Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:43 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Jalama looks like it might be brutal this weekend. Would I be completely out of my mind to try and head up there Sat/Sun?
Trying to get some more fall windsurfing in!
Thanks for any advice.
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
jc_surfsail
Joined: 15 Jan 2002
Posts: 24
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:01 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Here is what NOAA is saying for that area:
• Sat NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 8 to 11 ft. Slight chance of showers.
• Sun N winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft.
Surfline is saying swell is 7-10 foot @ 295-300 degrees @ 12 seconds.
With that swell angle and period the resulting surf @ Jalama is about half the swell size so you are probably looking @ head high + wave size.
For Sunday I would think that wind might be a little too north to fill all the way to the beach but I'm not a forecaster.
This brings up a good question for the I-Windsurf forecast team: We sail year round in SoCal so why no human forecast year round???????
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
swchandler
Joined: 08 Nov 1993
Posts: 10588
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2014 1:12 pm Post subject: |
|
|
"This brings up a good question for the I-Windsurf forecast team: We sail year round in SoCal so why no human forecast year round???????"
For some reason, the sole focus on the west coast is Baja. However, whether Mike Godsey is paid by iWindsurf to forecast Baja conditions is unclear, but while he's down there for the Fall and Winter months, you would think that a daily forecast for the California coast would still be doable, since the weather systems that affect both regions are linked to some degree.
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
gronquist
Joined: 12 May 2000
Posts: 70
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2014 10:57 pm Post subject: |
|
|
GREAT question, Chandler.
fall and spring are the real seasons for us here at Arroyo, Jalama, SBarbara....Summer is the off season for us.
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
MalibuGuru
Joined: 11 Nov 1993
Posts: 9300
|
| Posted: Thu Oct 30, 2014 12:38 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Why don't they give us our own "sticky". Instead of calling it where we sailed today, call it "where we're going to sail tomorrow"? I'd bet some of you guys would do better than the forecasters! Smack down.....
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
windfind
Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1901
|
| Posted: Thu Oct 30, 2014 9:35 am Post subject: |
|
|
| swchandler wrote: | "This brings up a good question for the I-Windsurf forecast team: We sail year round in SoCal so why no human forecast year round???????"
For some reason, the sole focus on the west coast is Baja. However, whether Mike Godsey is paid by iWindsurf to forecast Baja conditions is unclear, but while he's down there for the Fall and Winter months, you would think that a daily forecast for the California coast would still be doable, since the weather systems that affect both regions are linked to some degree. |
Hi swchandler,
These are good questions.
First, I am not paid for the Baja winter forecasts. So far it is something I do to pay back the debt I owe the sport that has provided me with so many thrills.
Second, doing winter forecasts is something we have long considered. The issue is that it takes an hour or so to work up a decent forecast. Often it looks obvious that there will be no wind but with deeper digging you find some obscure thing like winds at the 925mb level that may push the ocean wind to the beaches. So throughout the winter we would have to pay a forecaster every day to work up a forecast even though on most winter days the chance of wind is very low.
Third, we would like to forecast for Arroyo and Pismo but so far even the people who live nearby have not found a sensor location for which we can get permission. And without a sensor we cannot verify the accuracy of a forecast which means we cannot learn from our errors. Even with sensors it takes several years of forecasting before you can do a decent forecast. Without a sensor it is hopeless. Sort of like trying to jibe while blindfolded.
Lastly there is the reality that to stay in business we have to make money. And our stats on web site usage show that relatively few people are using the data in the winter. So if we started forecasting all winter our forecast costs would double with little or no increase in revenue. Not a very good business model.
That said... I still hope one of these day we are able to make at least a daily or at least 3x weekly winter forecast for the west coast.
Hope to see you all in Baja this winter!!!
Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com
| Description: |
|
| Filesize: |
485.48 KB |
| Viewed: |
18603 Time(s) |
|
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
swchandler
Joined: 08 Nov 1993
Posts: 10588
|
| Posted: Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:10 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Mike, thanks for addressing our concerns. Speaking for myself, I'm a year round iWindsurf subscriber that always checks out what's going on daily. A regular habit of watching the sensors can have its rewards, like last Saturday at C Street. The human forecast (one of the last this season) was very dismal, but out of nowhere it ended up being a 5.0 day for me.
Again, thanks for the feedback, and good luck with your season down in Baja.
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You can attach files in this forum
You can download files in this forum
|
|
|
Search
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Register
