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Who thinks this weekend is going to go off?
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mchaco1



Joined: 08 Sep 2010
Posts: 637

PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 11:06 pm    Post subject: Who thinks this weekend is going to go off? Reply with quote

Temira seems very excited about it...but many other sources seem significantly less positive. What do you guys think?
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jota



Joined: 28 Feb 2001
Posts: 172

PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 11:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Temira, bless her heart, gets little credit for being right (which is often or even most of the time), but people notice when she's wrong. Well, she was wrong yesterday and admitted it today, and she was wrong again today as it went off all afternoon at the hatch.

I'm not going to answer your question as I'm less qualified than Temira or any iW forecaster - but they're both calling for near 30s at the hatch tomorrow and still strong Saturday.

Sounds good to me. Time to go retrieve the trash cans from the neighbor's yard.
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mchaco1



Joined: 08 Sep 2010
Posts: 637

PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 11:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In not judging her one way or the other...I usually go by a combination of her and mark worth. I prefer when everybody just agrees so that I dont have to bring everything I own Very Happy I figured with the foggy moors of portland today there was probably something interesting going on out east, hopefully it holds throughout the weekend...
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 13282

PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2012 8:34 am    Post subject: Re: Who thinks this weekend is going to go off? Reply with quote

mchaco1 wrote:
Temira seems very excited about it...but many other sources seem significantly less positive. What do you guys think?

I don't think (about the weather.)

It's gonna do what it's gonna do, there is no best or worst forecast source, I have no Cray/crystal ball/meteorology degree*, so there's no point in thinking about it unless one lives many hours away and has to drive based on forecasts. Except on jammed summer weekends, I just drive when I see the whites of its eyes, i.e., moderately consistent 20 mph winds, a credible gradient, no wind-causing T-storms nearby, and a supporting forecast. My standards slip as winter approaches, but tighten once it gets cold ... and I always take a good book.

*I've watched professional and amateur meteorologists spin their wheels for an hour counting tree leaves, measuring clouds, phoning weather stations on lonely hilltops in the Amazon, scouring computer screens into the night, and rubbing tea leaves into their Taro cards ... with no obvious unique payoff. "Extended windy patterns" don't mean crap to the guy with his 5.2 on the water in the current. We've all seen it rip w/no forecast and fester despite unanimous good forecasts.

Ya tend to get cynical and/or pragmatic after driving many hundreds of thousands of miles chasing forecasts. You learn to examine the sources more closely and keep a log of both the skunks and the victories vs your own observations to make sense of the chaos. Then when that fails and you realize that the weather has a mind of its own, you calm down and revert to whichever approach above floats yer boat.
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mchaco1



Joined: 08 Sep 2010
Posts: 637

PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2012 11:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I usually take that approach, but Im trying to coordinate with other people this weekend and get out on the water with them before the end of the season so planing is necessary.
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 13282

PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2012 12:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mchaco1 wrote:
I usually take that approach ...

At your point in the learning curve, I don't advise my approach. You need even poor-quality TOW, which does me very little good and often produces looooong swims.

My approach is for jaded cynics who punch the air in smug satisfaction when certain other people drive for 1 to 3 hours in case it might blow, rig in the icy drizzle because they thought they saw a ripple, step into the ice water because they thought they saw a whitecap, slog across the lake in case there's another whitecap, give up, undress and derig in the icy drizzle, and drive 1-3 hours home ... unless a blizzard makes the drive back take 5-6 hours, as it often did over the Continental Divide in NM. They shouldda known, but there was no telling them. It was sort of like getting skunked vicariously, which is the best way.
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mchaco1



Joined: 08 Sep 2010
Posts: 637

PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2012 12:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I meant I just look at cams and see whats going on before I leave to decide where to go Very Happy Which still produces plenty of poor quality time in the water this year Laughing
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 13282

PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2012 2:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thus my reticence to drive in to the corridor this year; the odds are against a payoff, for several reasons. We've had plenty of holeygusty closer to home this year; no reason to drive further for it. But with the reduced current and crowds and the return of the thermal boost, I'm softly kicking myself in the butt for missing yesterday and today.
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jota



Joined: 28 Feb 2001
Posts: 172

PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2012 5:29 pm    Post subject: Re: Who thinks this weekend is going to go off? Reply with quote

mchaco1 wrote:
What do you guys think?


Yes.


Last edited by jota on Fri Sep 21, 2012 6:54 pm; edited 1 time in total
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andymc4610



Joined: 19 May 2000
Posts: 672

PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2012 6:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

saturday just east of the clouds....sunday a bit lighter but still sailable, just my opinion.
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