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swchandler



Joined: 08 Nov 1993
Posts: 10419

PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2022 9:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"CB—the supply chain problems are universal, and almost certainly have nothing to do with either the Trump or the Biden administrations. I worked in the shipping industry while the idea of “just in time” delivery became standard. Certainly holding less inventory, and the ability to ship directly to an end user rather than from warehouse to warehouse had the benefit of saving costs, which became some combination of consumer savings and greater profit. The system worked fine—until it didn’t. Add in lower levels of protection for blue collar workers during the darkest days of the pandemic and you had people leaving factories throughout the world, and also leaving trucking, and warehousing. Less manufacturing, less transport, less storage. My American-made windows took 3 months to get here.


mac, I think that you hit right to the heart in your comments above, I like the part "until it didn't". One of your chief frailties as a nation is the state of our manufacturing base, and that's beyond huge. All that is being done somewhere else, in today's world. They will be the leaders of manufacturing technology and development as it develops. That's sobering.

And, then one might ask, what do we want to do next as a nation in a more challenging world. How are we going to invest in tomorrow? Who is stepping up and what's being offered?

Believe me, it's much more than freaking out about the oil , gas and coal industries. I'm not against them, but they need to step up to the future, With the right focus, they could excel. We will be consumers until we die, and far beyond that.
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boggsman1



Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 8887
Location: at a computer

PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2022 9:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mr Gybe I enjoyed Daniel Day Lewis in the movie "There will be blood", a stellar performance in a movie about California's oil production .. A lot has changed since then , and a lot has changed since 1985 .. It's a tricky position but I still think we need to reduce our consumption ... It's doable
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17236
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2022 10:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

coboardhead wrote:
Mac

I realize there is an issue in every industry right now. We are still seeing the aftermath of a global shut down. My industry is shortage driven right now. My gripe is that we are being told one thing...buy an EV...yet, not told that we don't get too for awhile.

Most Americans look at what they do over the next few months. Not the next few years. I need a new car now...not next year...so I won't be buying an EV for a decade cause that's how long I keep a work car. I'm not the only person making these sorts of decisions. Sometimes there are ramifications that go well beyond good intentions.

Boggsman. I had an order in on a RAV4 plug in hybrid before I got extended out 24 months...24 months!!! I have to have an SUV to get to job sites in the winter and there really are a limited supply. I MIGHT be able to get a Honda plug in...maybe...


CB--As a project manager, I have done projects that take 2, 4, and ten years. Part of the American problem is that they focus on the next quarter--for bonuses, or cash flow, or elections. Big things take big time--and talent.

I have a 17 year old van that pretty much only goes from my house to the launch--about 7 miles round trip. I fill it once a month, or less. The carbon signature of keeping it is less than buying an ev or hybrid. My business commuting vehicle is a Giant, And as much as my neighbors love their Tesla, and the customer service program, I won't give Elon any money. But I did refurbish my garage, and set it up to be able to handle solar panels. They are inevitable. I was an early adopter of passive solar--doing most of the work myself, more than forty years ago. It heated most of the house.

What I want is the truth about cost-effectiveness. Increased efficiency, passive solar, and for many purposes solar all make sense and are cost-effective now. You won't get a bit of truth from the carbon industry. Or SUV salespeople.
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coboardhead



Joined: 26 Oct 2009
Posts: 4195

PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mac

Not sure what you mean by SUV salesmen. Are all wheel drive SUV's more available than they are telling me?
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mrgybe



Joined: 01 Jul 2008
Posts: 5171

PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

boggsman1 wrote:
It's a tricky position but I still think we need to reduce our consumption ... It's doable

Boggsy, Every credible energy outlook predicts that carbon energy will increase for at least the next 20 to 40 years. Coal usage is now at an all time high and increasing, and, as I have said previously, the biggest challenge facing the O&G industry is not competition from so-called green energy, it is to find and produce sufficient quantities to meet the ever increasing demand. Those are the facts and no amount of infantile vulgarity and deflections from your fellow lefties will change that. The only other scalable and reliable energy source currently available is nuclear, which I support, but opposition from the usual suspects will continue to stall progress in that arena.

It seems that you are unable to agree that controlling our own energy production is preferable to outsourcing it to hostile/ unreliable countries, so we'll have to disagree.
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J64TWB



Joined: 24 Dec 2013
Posts: 1685

PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2022 6:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec1_2.pdf
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boggsman1



Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 8887
Location: at a computer

PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mr G ... we tried . We were producing 13-15/mbd in 2017-2017. Then it collapsed because of costs . Today that's not feasible so the US is doing what it can .. I believe if EV's become 35% of the market our consumption will meet our production .. That is doable ..
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coboardhead



Joined: 26 Oct 2009
Posts: 4195

PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2022 11:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

boggsman1 wrote:
Mr G ... we tried . We were producing 13-15/mbd in 2017-2017. Then it collapsed because of costs . Today that's not feasible so the US is doing what it can .. I believe if EV's become 35% of the market our consumption will meet our production .. That is doable ..


World wide electricity demand is expected to rise 57% by 2050 from a study using 2017 as a basis.

US electricity is expected to rise by about 1% per year (without considering EV's) Right now, the transportation sector uses about 3% of the electricity. An explosive increase in EV use (if we can find them) will increase that to a potential increase in electricity demands of 20 to 40% by year 2050.

So. Let's say Colorado continues to meet our 30% green energy. It will be difficult to increase that because the good sites are being used up (best wind, solar, hydro)

So. Hydrocarbon Terrawatts by 2050 compared to total energy today (assuming a middle number of increased demand of 30%).

2050 terrawatts vs today = .7(1.30) = .91. Even if we can stay at 30% renewable, we will need carbon fuels to supply 90% of the total (including renewables). A few years further out and we will need carbon fuels to supply more total energy than we consumed prior to the renewable revolution.

Increased demand is going to erase most of our gains in renewable technology.

Just to be clear. I'm a proponent of renewable energy. But, I see conservation as being of utmost importanance. I don't see us weaning ourselves from carbon sources. The only real answer is the nuclear option.
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mrgybe



Joined: 01 Jul 2008
Posts: 5171

PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2022 12:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CB, Agreed on all counts. Absent a Damascene conversion of the environmental lobby and lawmakers on nuclear, a huge increase in EVs will move hydrocarbons from fuel tanks to natural gas power plants; coal plants will also increase. There are efficiencies in central power generation, but there are also significant transmission losses. The grid will need a complete overhaul. Conveniently out of site will be the massive mining operations to find the minerals needed for batteries/ solar panels/ wind turbines. China currently has a stranglehold on the global supply of many of those minerals; we've seen what happens when a hostile nation can use that kind of leverage. And then, of course, there is the colossal toxic waste involved in those mining operations and in the disposal of huge batteries, solar panels and turbine blades. Some of this can be overcome; the cost will be astronomical.

There are no simple solutions as some would like to believe.
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17236
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2022 12:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

115 degrees today in Oklahoma. 104 yesterday in Paris. London runway that melted has been repaired. Government busy arresting Barbara Lee for protesting abortion ruling. Flacks for big carbon busy whining about mining waste and batteries--while they brag about blocking research into better solar panels and batteries.

Yes, the GOP and the oil industry know hypocrisy.
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