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Blog: Meet Mr. upper trough & winds out East
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1899

PostPosted: Fri Jul 15, 2022 12:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

isobars wrote:
Damn. Just when expectations of WSW winds out east got my juices flowing, iW throws up this all-important tweak this evening (thank you): WNW winds will continue across the bluffs, especially across the Corridor and Near East favoring the Oregon side, the Washington side will be up and down all day.

$#!+! Let me know how it was. Unless something changes, I'll accompany my wife to the gym at 6:30 AM Friday.


My 2 cents:

The transition between WSW flow favorable for The Wall and Roos is very subtle changes in the winds ≈1000 feet aloft (975MB level) that ripple over the hills and sometimes impact the river wind. So never base your Roos decision entirely upon a forecast.

See below. Notice how the models have the transition between WNW to WSW flow occurring just east of Arlington. If the WNW flow prevails the A-town has great wind but Roos suffers. If the WSW wind prevails then the entire river will be good.

So you look at the model data in the image and notice how it has WNW flow favoring A-town side all day.

BUT... then look at the relief map of actual sensors readings in the huge area around Roos and Arlington. Focus the sensors out east that are on flatter terrain without any nearby hills upwind to see actual wind flow.

Since many were showing WSW (red circles) at 10 AM I would watch them for a while and see if more turn WSW or if the A-town sensor shows any direction changes.

If the A. sensor shows any hint of WNW then forget the drive unless you plan on launching at A-town. If the A sensor holds W AND if surrounding sensors are still showing WSW consider making the drive. On your drive watch the direction of every turbine. If most are more WNW it is a bad sign. If more are facing WSW keep driving. Once at Roos walk out to the point and look back and watch the tiniest ripples. (even small swells show history, ripples show the present. That is how I got my "fame" for swell riding with no hands... OMG! I sound like someone familiar) giggle

Mike Godsey
Weatherflow



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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 20935

PostPosted: Fri Jul 15, 2022 3:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Excellent suggestions and information all. I'll start watching those spots closely as adjuncts if and when my first approximation (Arlington wind speed) piques my interest. If I could filter the >90% screen clutter from iW's FlowViz charts, I'd start using them again.

As for your (justified) giggle, I've been using swell and ripples exactly as you suggest for decades all over the country. They tell us a lot about whether and what to rig. The sole turbine visible north of Roosevelt can avert disasters such as hours of swimming. If there are T-storms to our W or NW and that turbine turns northerly, even strong W winds will within minutes turn directly offshore at 5-15 mph. (We old farts DO have some useful info to impart, H20joe.)

I have to pay a lot of attention to forecasts instead of strictly live data, for several reasons. I live 70 miles away (in New Mexico the lakes were 180 miles away), often have to reschedule medical appts for wind, and leave home before dawn if dawn patrol forecasts or numbers look that good. I've found those "WA shoreline winds will suck" warnings to be pretty accurate often enough that I'm starting to bank on them. Add to that the wide, often wild, wind speed fluctuations even on the Oregon side in recent years and especially this year, and I've begun selling off my beloved high wind gear. As for now, I'm seeing clues I can't confirm from current data suggesting that my decision to abort was valid. On the plus side, these problems have really freed up the parking.

I'll be PMing you to pick your brain regarding an idea I have for a tentative, partial, experimental solution. Thanks for the time you put in for all of us.
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alluarjun



Joined: 06 Jul 2022
Posts: 1

PostPosted: Sun Jul 17, 2022 11:43 am    Post subject: Why its Time to Say good bye to Social Security Numbers? Reply with quote

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