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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17747
Location: Berkeley, California
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 Posted: Sun Jul 18, 2021 2:57 pm Post subject: |
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This is what happens when the Republican Party is the wholly owned subsidiary of the carbon industry, and folks like buggy whip and the Exxon executives lie without fear of repercussion.
| Quote: | | Democrats have spent much of this week highlighting the climate measures of the latter package, after the majority of the provisions proposed in President Joe Biden's American Jobs Plan did not make it into the bipartisan infrastructure package. These include both a clean energy standard and a polluter import fees (see more below), as well as incentives for renewables development and electric vehicles. However, it remains to be seen whether either policy will come to fruition, given the limitations of the reconciliation process (especially, for the clean energy standard, the Byrd rule) and the practical challenges of implementation. |
The consequences?
| Quote: | | “Climate change from human activity nearly doubled the area that burned in forest fires in the American West between 1984 and 2015, according to a study in 2016 by scientists at Columbia University and the University of Idaho.” |
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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17747
Location: Berkeley, California
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| Posted: Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:26 pm Post subject: |
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Let’s hope. I still have faith in American ingenuity. Not coming out of southern bible schools. Or Exxon.
| Quote: | | The startup Form Energy Inc. said it has succeeded in building a battery made of iron, designed to be the "kind of battery you need to fully retire thermal assets like coal and natural gas" power plants, according to the company's Chief Executive Mateo Jaramillo. While the iron-air batteries are too heavy for use in electric cars, Form said they will be suited to cheaply storing electricity once they are ready for use by about 2025, if all goes as planned. (The Wall Street Journal) |
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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17747
Location: Berkeley, California
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| Posted: Mon Jul 26, 2021 3:04 pm Post subject: |
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Will buggy whip come out again? Now that being paid for disinformation is a "thing?"
From the NYT.
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Yes, it is getting hotter. And while you might be able to escape the intensifying tropical storms, flooding or droughts by moving elsewhere, refuge from extreme heat is no longer easy to find. Even in Siberia.
Summers that seemed exceedingly hot 50 years ago are becoming much more commonplace. The extreme heat of that era — which had a chance of occurring of only one-tenth of 1 percent during the summer season — is now reached more than 20 percent of the time, according to calculations by the climate scientist James Hansen. That’s 200 times as often. And nights are warming faster than days, at nearly twice the rate. So much for relief.
And though the deadly, intense heat that baked the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada recently was startling, extremely hot temperatures have struck elsewhere in recent years, in surprising places and with calamitous consequences. This should be reason enough — along with the recent disastrous floods in China, Germany and other European countries — to move quickly to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming. But heat waves and other extreme events will continue even after emissions are significantly reduced. That’s why we also need to adapt by, for example, developing heat action plans, early-warning systems and making the power grid more resilient to heat-related disruptions that can knock out electricity for fans and air-conditioning when they are needed most.
And as we look at adaptation strategies, we must be particularly mindful that extreme heat will disproportionately affect older adults, people with chronic illnesses and mobility problems, the poor and isolated, people of color and those who work outdoors. Heat is one of the deadliest kinds of extreme weather in the United States. From 1991 through 2018, 37 percent of heat-related summer deaths were attributable to human-caused climate change, according to a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change in May.
And it has taken a toll elsewhere. In the summer of 2003, a severe heat wave killed an estimated 70,000 people in Europe. Temperatures didn’t just break records but smashed them. What was then a new science of extreme event attribution, which seeks to determine the extent to which climate change is responsible for episodes of extreme weather, found that global warming had at least doubled the likelihood of that heat wave. Another brutal hot spell hit Russia in 2010, killing an estimated 55,000 people.
Extreme heat also descended on Britain and Japan in 2018, and in Sweden in 2018 and 2021. A prolonged heat wave settled over Siberia in the first six months of 2020. The town of Verkhoyansk, which saw its temperature plunge to minus 90 degrees Fahrenheit in 1892, recorded the hottest temperature ever above the Arctic Circle on June 20, 2020, when the mercury hit 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius). That’s bad P.R. for a town that competes with another Russian community for the title of the Pole of Cold.
These events are emblematic of a larger trend in extreme heat, driven by global warming. And it’s not just a climate problem; as those mortality figures show, it can be a public health catastrophe. In addition to heat stress, extreme heat can worsen chronic conditions such as cardiovascular, respiratory and cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes-related conditions. The study in Nature Climate Change found that human-induced climate change increased the annual average temperature globally in the warm season by nearly three degrees, to 73.4 degrees Fahrenheit, across 732 locations around the world.
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The intense heat that hit the Pacific Northwest in late June and early July would have been virtually impossible in the absence of human-caused climate change, according to an analysis by an international group of scientists working with the group World Weather Attribution. Scientists say they had never seen such a jump in record temperatures like this — breaking records by up to 11 degrees — prompting a co-leader at World Weather Attribution to suggest to the magazine Scientific American that the region may have crossed a threshold in which these kinds of events become much more common. Climate change doesn’t always proceed in a linear fashion and often exceeds the predictions of computer models.
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What does the future hold? It’s a simple and deadly formula: The greater our emissions of heat-trapping gases, the higher the temperature rise and the greater the health risks. Claudia Tebaldi, an earth scientist and climate modeler at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, told The Times this month that as a general rule, for every one-degree increase in global average temperature, extreme temperatures will rise by up to twice as much.
Last year was the warmest on record, effectively tying with 2016, with the past seven years the hottest years ever recorded. And that has created conditions that have made extreme summer heat more frequent. Among other things, it is weakening the jet stream and causing weather patterns, like the recent heat dome that sat over the Pacific Northwest, to remain stuck in place for days.
About 12,000 Americans die from heat-related deaths each year. Under a climate scenario in which heat-trapping gas emissions continue to rise, that number would increase by 97,000 deaths in the United States by the year 2100, according to a recent study. If only modest progress is made in constraining emissions, those deaths are projected to rise by 36,000. With aggressive emissions reductions, deaths would go up by 14,000.
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Air-conditioning has become more widespread, though not in the Pacific Northwest, and has staved off many heat-related deaths. But when the power goes out, which it’s more likely to do during severe heat waves, everyone is vulnerable. In Portland, Ore., where a high-temperature record of 116 degrees was set in June, streets buckled and streetcar power cables melted, affecting access to lifesaving cooling centers. More than 6,000 people lost electricity.
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A cooling center in Portland, Ore., during a record-setting heat wave in June. Credit...Nathan Howard/Getty Images
The extraordinary heat and drought in the Northwest and Canada are estimated to have killed more than a billion marine animals, including hundreds of millions of mussels, an important part of the food chain. Agricultural crops were also hit hard. Wheat was scorched . Dry crop foliage increases fire risk. The high temperatures also added to the drought conditions across the state of Washington. Heat and drought feed on each other, and wildfires can follow. The Pacific Northwest grows most of the world’s cherries . Preliminary estimates were that 50 percent to 70 percent of the cherry crop was damaged, along with apples, apricots and raspberries. Workers who harvest those crops are among the most vulnerable to heat stress. |
But when you get paid to deny...and you attack because the science is against you... |
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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17747
Location: Berkeley, California
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| Posted: Sat Jul 31, 2021 12:15 pm Post subject: |
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Those who have made a living lying for Exxon, and those who slavishly repeat their claims, will pretend that the drought in California and throughout the west has nothing to do with climate change or burning carbon. They will make a habit out of ignoring science. Like this:
| Quote: | HOW WILL TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN CALIFORNIA?
Average summer temperatures in California have risen by approximately 3 degrees F (1.8℃) since 1896, with more than half of that increase occurring since the early 1970s. If global greenhouse gas emissions continue at current rates, the state is likely to experience further warming by more than 2 degrees F more by 2040, more than 4 degrees F by 2070, and by more than 6 degrees F by 2100. Some of the most impressive impacts of warming will be felt during short period heat events (e.g. days exceeding 106.6 degrees F). For example, if emissions continue at current rates, Fresno will likely suffer 43 extreme heat days per year between 2050 and 2099; 10 times more than its yearly average between 1961 and 2005.
California’s unique landscape and coastal setting will affect the patterns of warming. For instance, Scripps climate researcher Alexander Gershunov has detected a trend in the flavor of California’s heat waves, with particularly strong impacts along the coast. Specifically, he found that some heat waves have become increasingly humid. These events have produced markedly warmer nighttime temperatures, a trend consistent with climate change projections. Moreover, the mid-summer heat waves are getting stronger in generally cooler coastal areas. This has particular importance to the millions of coastal dwelling Californians whose everyday lives are acclimated to moderate temperatures.
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https://scripps.ucsd.edu/research/climate-change-resources/faq-climate-change-california
My mother always wanted me to go to Scripps. |
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techno900
Joined: 28 Mar 2001
Posts: 4161
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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17747
Location: Berkeley, California
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| Posted: Sat Jul 31, 2021 10:10 pm Post subject: |
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| And that means we shouldn’t do anything? Oh, you’re just trolling. |
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techno900
Joined: 28 Mar 2001
Posts: 4161
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| Posted: Sun Aug 01, 2021 10:43 am Post subject: |
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| mac wrote: | | And that means we shouldn’t do anything? Oh, you’re just trolling. |
And you think the US isn't doing anything? The US is making good headway in reducing CO2, but unless the other major players get onboard, our progress means little. China is doing just the opposite and I suspect that they will not meet their commitments for the Paris Agreement nor do they care to work in that direction. All this has been mentioned before, but you choose not to acknowledge the issue.
| Quote: | Since 2000, the most dramatic changes have taken place in China, as the slider below shows. Its coal fleet grew five-fold between 2000 and 2019 to reach 1,005GW, nearly half the global total.
China is the world’s largest CO2 emitter and uses half the coal consumed each year, so its future path is disproportionately important for global efforts to tackle climate change. |
https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-plants |
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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17747
Location: Berkeley, California
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| Posted: Sun Aug 01, 2021 11:28 am Post subject: |
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| techno900 wrote: |
And you think the US isn't doing anything? The US is making good headway in reducing CO2, but unless the other major players get onboard, our progress means little. China is doing just the opposite and I suspect that they will not meet their commitments for the Paris Agreement nor do they care to work in that direction. All this has been mentioned before, but you choose not to acknowledge the issue.
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More happy horse shit from the land of pig shit. There is much wrong with China, politically and economically, and their environmental policies would gladden the heart of the most corrupt carbon apologist. I have said that Trump’s efforts, particularly tariffs, were ineffective virtue signaling—where they weren’t counterproductive and damaging to American farmers and consumers. But if you want to debate responding to the Chinese government—start another thread.
The solution to global warming is to develop the technology that will bring alternatives to the market place. Since Exxon and their ilk decided decades ago to invest in lying and cheating instead of becoming a clean energy company, the heavy lifting will have to come from the government. Some of that has been done, Biden will do more. Carbon companies will continue to cling to their subsidies and you will continue to whine about government and China. Go back to sleep. |
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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17747
Location: Berkeley, California
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| Posted: Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:23 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | a. ISTOCKPHOTO.COM/MICHAEL WARREN
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By Michael Paul Nelson, The Conversation and Peter Mark Groffman, The Conversation
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AUGUST 3, 2021 07:54 PM ET
The severity of heat, drought, fires and floods has many researchers questioning whether climate change, fueled by human actions, is progressing faster than predicted and what that means for the future.
CLIMATE CHANGE
FLOODING
Record-breaking heat waves and drought have left West Coast rivers lethally hot for salmon, literally cooked millions of mussels and clams in their shells and left forests primed to burn. The extraordinary severity of 2021’s heat and drought, and its fires and floods, has many people questioning whether climate change, fueled by human actions, is progressing even faster than studies have predicted and what that means for the future.
As ecologists, we have watched climate change play out over decades at long-term research sites in forests, fields and coastal areas across the U.S.
A recent series of five papers in the journal Ecosphere presents more than 25 case studies from these sites, providing a unique perspective on the changes underway and what’s likely ahead as the planet continues to warm.
Here are snapshots of what we’re seeing firsthand in the National Science Foundation’s Long-Term Ecological Research Network sites, from the effect of increasing fires in Oregon’s Cascades to shifting marine life off the coast of Maine, and surprising resilience in Baltimore’s urban forests.
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FORESTS
In the Cascade Mountains of the Pacific Northwest, scientists have been tracking changes in the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, a 16,000-acre watershed, for 70 years. The forest is a blend of iconic old-growth hemlock, cedar and Douglas fir trees, many of them 400 to 500 years old; steep terrain; fast, cold-running streams; and a smattering of forest plantations.
While it’s tempting to see permanence in an old-growth forest, the climate may be exceeding thresholds, pushing even these ecosystems dominated by long-lived trees into conditions outside of anything they have experienced.
In the coming century, the rising temperature is expected to prolong summer droughts and increase winter floods as snow melts sooner or falls as rain.
As a result, we anticipate more frequent and more severe forest fires, more trees dying and shifts in stream and land ecosystems. New species, such as timber wolves, are likely to move in, while some native species, such as the Northern spotted owl, disappear. We’ll also likely see shifts in public values and land management that can either help or hurt species’ survival.
These changes will interact with one another in surprising, perhaps unimaginable, ways. The biological responses to changes in the physical systems have, thus far, been subtle and variable, but that could change. Even with records going back more than 70 years, the magnitude and direction of future changes is largely uncertain – we can anticipate some changes, but there may be tipping points and interactions that we don’t yet understand.
RURAL AND URBAN EASTERN FORESTS
In the Northeastern U.S., the forests are younger because humans have been using the land longer and in more intense ways. At the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the White Mountains of New Hampshire, the ecosystem has shown remarkable resilience to disturbance.
It was established by the Forest Service in 1955, and early research included clear-cutting entire watersheds to study the impact on the water quality and ecosystems.
Current research there focuses on whether this capacity for resilience has been degraded by climate change, acid rain, invasion by pests and pathogens and the inexorable march of climate migrant species, such as oak and pine that may displace the sugar maple and beech that currently dominate the forest.
These recent results suggest that in 50 years, these northern hardwood forests will likely still resemble the communities we see today, with sugar maple and beech dominating a closed-canopy forest. However, the responses of forest growth and tree species to the drivers of change now suggest that their resilience may be overwhelmed toward the end of the 21st century, resulting in a forest with markedly different structure and services.
This might come as a surprise, but in comparing urban forest research sites, like a network site in Baltimore, with rural forests, we have found that some urban forests may actually be more resilient. In the same paper describing the resilience at Hubbard Brook, researchers discuss how forests in the mid-Atlantic and southeastern regions of the U.S. have experienced changes in biodiversity because of fire suppression and high deer populations that don’t affect natural areas in cities as much. These changes reduce the resilience of these forests, resulting in the loss of oak and a suite of biodiversity and ecosystem services associated with these species.
MIDWESTERN FIELDS
Kellogg Biological Station in southwest Michigan is the only Long-Term Ecological Research site in an agricultural setting. Insects, and how they might change in a warming future, are a concern.
Research here shows how the arrival of invasive predators has changed native and exotic predator and prey communities in ways that may make the ecosystems less resilient. Invasive species have the potential to reshape interactions among entire communities, in turn influencing ecosystem function and ecosystem services.
Like shifting climate patterns, the movement of species outside their native ranges can have profound consequences for biodiversity and the functioning of communities in the invaded areas. In agricultural ecosystems of the north-central U.S., successive invasions of exotic lady beetle predators have influenced community structure and ecosystem processes with wide-ranging effect on both natural and managed ecosystems. Now the question is whether the changing climate will affect insect communities, with implications for pest management and native species loss
ATLANTIC MARINE LIFE
Changes in biodiversity are especially dynamic in coastal marine sites.
In 2012, a researcher reported seeing a blue crab, Callinectes sapidus, swimming in the estuary of the Plum Island Ecosystem Long-Term Ecological Research site, an estuary in northeastern Massachusetts we call PIE. The site is in the cooler waters of the Gulf of Maine and 70 miles (114 km) north of the historical northern limit of blue crabs.
Then, in 2014, a male fiddler crab, Minuca pugnax, turned up. Like the blue crab, its historic northern limit was south of PIE. Field surveys found that fiddler crabs were now not only in PIE, but as far north as Maine.
The northern shift of these crabs’ habitat as the water warms reflects what scientists are seeing for marine species globally as global temperatures rise.
The movement of species into nonnative ranges, whether as an introduced species or via climate-driven range shifts, represents a biological disturbance in the system. What that will mean for these species in the future, and the structure, function and services of ecosystems they move into, is less clear. Coastal marine ecosystems are especially dynamic, and our colleagues at sites in Massachusetts, Virginia, Georgia, Florida and California are helping us understand and predict these effects.
TRACKING CHANGE TODAY TO RESPOND TO THE FUTURE
These snapshots reflect changes elsewhere across the Long-Term Ecological Research Network.
The network has roughly 2,000 researchers at 28 sites around the country as well as in Antarctica and on a Pacific coral reef. Together they represent thousands of years of on-the-ground observation and experimentation. Their research feeds into global climate analysis, like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report expected to be released on Aug. 9.
Predicting the future of ecosystems is difficult, particularly under an accelerating force like climate change. These extensive long-term datasets, with everything from changes in soil nutrients to the growth and decline of animal species, provide insight into the changes underway to guide responses for the future.
Michael Paul Nelson is a professor of Environmental Ethics and Philosophy and Oregon State University. Peter Mark Groffman is a professor at the City University of New York Graduate Center.
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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17747
Location: Berkeley, California
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| Posted: Thu Aug 05, 2021 11:43 am Post subject: |
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Not to worry, let's keep the subsidies for buggy whips.
| Quote: | By
Sarah Kaplan
Today at 11:01 a.m. EDT
929
Human-caused warming has led to an “almost complete loss of stability” in the system that drives Atlantic Ocean currents, a new study has found — raising the worrying prospect that this critical aquatic “conveyor belt” could be close to collapse.
In recent years, scientists have warned about a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which transports warm, salty water from the tropics to northern Europe and then sends colder water back south along the ocean floor. Researchers who study ancient climate change have also uncovered evidence that the AMOC can turn off abruptly, causing wild temperature swings and other dramatic shifts in global weather systems.
Sign up for the latest news about climate change, energy and the environment, delivered every Thursday
Scientists haven’t directly observed the AMOC slowing down. But the new analysis, published Thursday in the journal Nature Climate Change, draws on more than a century of ocean temperature and salinity data to show significant changes in eight indirect measures of the circulation’s strength. |
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