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real-human
Joined: 02 Jul 2011
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 Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 12:01 am Post subject: |
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two more examples 50 contacts and none infected and no masks at that time. if airborne the would all be sick.
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• A contact investigation for an early confirmed COVID-19 case from Washington State identified 50 contacts, none of whom had evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection through 6 weeks of follow-up. All contacts were monitored daily for 14 days following exposure. Eight developed symptoms but tested negative via rRT-PCR. Thirty-eight contacts underwent voluntary enhanced contact investigation, revealing varying degrees of unprotected face-to-face interactions with the case-patient. Negative rRT-PCR and serologic follow-up collected approximately 6 weeks post exposure suggest no evidence of secondary transmission.
Chu et al. (May 29, 2020). Investigation and Serologic Follow-Up of Contacts of Early Confirmed Case-Patient with COVID-19, United States. Emerging Infectious Diseases. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2608.201423
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less than 50% of all the people wearing masks and no massive outbreak at that time and before. in fact there was a drop in daily casesvs the days they monitored.
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• [Pre-print, not peer reviewed] An observational study of shoppers (n=5,517) entering 36 different grocery and retail locations across southeastern Wisconsin (June 3-9, 2020) found that the likelihood of an individual wearing a mask was associated with older age, being female, and shopping in an urban location. Fewer than 50% of individuals observed were wearing a mask.
Haischer et al. (July 14, 2020). Who Is Wearing a Mask Gender- Age- and Location-Related Differences during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Pre-print downloaded July 14 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.13.20152736 |
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real-human
Joined: 02 Jul 2011
Posts: 14885
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| Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:29 am Post subject: |
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examples of the fine details why elderly do not want to be first in line for the new vacines. takes at least a year to see testing results and intial trials were not gearewd for older people.
https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2020-07-14/moderna-phase-one-results-show-coronavirus-vaccine-safe-induces-immune-response
Moderna Phase 1 Results Show Coronavirus Vaccine Safe, Induces Immune Response
| Quote: | The results released Tuesday involved three doses of the vaccine, tested in groups of 15 volunteers aged 18-55 who got two shots, 28 days apart. The groups tested 25, 100 or 250 micrograms of the vaccine.
Adverse events after the second dose occurred in seven of the 13 volunteers who got the 25-microgram dose, all 15 participants who received the 100 microgram dose and all 14 who got the 250 microgram dose. In the highest-dose group, three patients had severe reactions such as fever, chills, headache or nausea. One of these had a fever of 103.28 Fahrenheit (39.6 C).
"We didn't see any events that are characterized as serious adverse events," said lead author Dr Lisa Jackson of Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute in Seattle, referring to reactions that require hospitalization or result in death.
In June, Moderna said it selected the 100-microgram dose for its late-stage study to minimize adverse reactions.
At that dose, Moderna said the company is on track to deliver about 500 million doses per year, and possibly up to 1 billion doses per year, starting in 2021, from the company's internal U.S. manufacturing site and strategic collaboration with Swiss drugmaker Lonza .
"It's a good first step," said Dr William Schaffner, a vaccine expert at Vanderbilt University Medical Center who was not involved in the study.
"There's nothing here that would inhibit one from going ahead to the Phase 2/Phase 3 trials," he said.
In April, Moderna expanded the Phase 1 trial to include adults over 55, who are more at risk of serious disease, with the aim of enrolling 120 volunteers. Moderna said it will follow study volunteers for a year to look for side effects and check how long immunity lasts.
Moderna started its phase 2 trial in May and expects to start a phase 3 trial on July 27.
Phase 1 trials aim to ensure a treatment is safe and help determine an effective dose. Phase 2 trials test a treatment in a larger group and get an early read on effectiveness. Phase 3 trials are conducted in a large group of individuals to confirm efficacy and identify rare side effects. Moderna's Phase 3 trial will be conducted in 30,000 volunteers. |
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GURGLETROUSERS
Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 2643
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| Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 12:09 pm Post subject: |
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I was fearing as much. For the vaccine to be truly effective it must surely require one of the higher doses which appears to produce a high percentage of nasty side effects. Presumably, it could be more serious if given to less robust elderly patients?
From what I've read so far I'm pinning my hopes on the Oxford version, which appears to have impressed those who have studied the preliminary results. They suggest a decent time span (couple of years at least) of potential immunity. (Top up at intervals possible.)
If there are still doubts of side effects by the end of the year, I would wait 6 months or so till next summer, and carry on as now. Being retired, and lucky enough to be able to avoid all interior contact (except weekly very early semi-deserted opening hour food shopping) it would just be a continuation of the present.
It's surprising what you adjust to when you have to. For the last several years I've been alone ( relationship difficult to maintain when freedom of action is at stake) and self sufficient. I cut my own hair (clippers and and clip ons), buy bike and sea spares by internet, or post, and have enough clothes and household gear to last, so what is being sacrificed! |
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real-human
Joined: 02 Jul 2011
Posts: 14885
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| Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:06 pm Post subject: |
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finally, as we all know my writing skills are very lacking... This guy nails what I have been saying very clearly. He just does not get into the data I have of contact like keyboards, coating in the hospital and so on. But at least he is copying me on the R value argument that it would be much higher if airborne.
again he did not attack the church choir one like i did for handling the chairs, again the clinic example I have showed if they washed the door handle after every use they were able to drop the germ levels from 50% or something like that to 5% even found on the back of the nurses chairs. We know the church choir set up the chairs and then moved the chairs and maybe even put them away. for just one potential. This is not peer reviewed.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768396
July 13, 2020
Airborne Transmission of SARS-CoV-2
Theoretical Considerations and Available Evidence
| Quote: | | Many of these same characteristics have previously been demonstrated for influenza and other common respiratory viruses. These data provide a useful theoretical framework for possible aerosol-based transmission for SARS-CoV-2, but what is less clear is the extent to which these characteristics lead to infections. Demonstrating that speaking and coughing can generate aerosols or that it is possible to recover viral RNA from air does not prove aerosol-based transmission; infection depends as well on the route of exposure, the size of inoculum, the duration of exposure, and host defenses. |
| Quote: | Notwithstanding the experimental data suggesting the possibility of aerosol-based transmission, the data on infection rates and transmissions in populations during normal daily life are difficult to reconcile with long-range aerosol-based transmission. First, the reproduction number for COVID-19 before measures were taken to mitigate its spread was estimated to be about 2.5, meaning that each person with COVID-19 infected an average of 2 to 3 other people. This reproduction number is similar to influenza and quite different from that of viruses that are well known to spread via aerosols such as measles, which has a reproduction number closer to 18. Considering that most people with COVID-19 are contagious for about 1 week, a reproduction number of 2 to 3 is quite small given the large number of interactions, crowds, and personal contacts that most people have under normal circumstances within a 7-day period. Either the amount of SARS-CoV-2 required to cause infection is much larger than measles or aerosols are not the dominant mode of transmission.
Similarly, the secondary attack rate for SARS-CoV-2 is low. Case series that have evaluated close contacts of patients with confirmed COVID-19 have reported that only about 5% of contacts become infected. However, even this low attack rate is not spread evenly among close contacts but varies depending on the duration and intensity of contact. The risk is highest among household members, in whom transmission rates range between 10% and 40%.2-4 Close but less sustained contact such as sharing a meal is associated with a secondary attack rate of about 7%, whereas passing interactions among people shopping is associated with a secondary attack rate of 0.6%.4 |
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real-human
Joined: 02 Jul 2011
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| Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:38 pm Post subject: |
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Tamil Nadu to conduct BCG vaccine trials on elderly to reduce Covid-19 incidence
Read more at: https://www.deccanherald.com/national/tamil-nadu-to-conduct-bcg-vaccine-trials-on-elderly-to-reduce-covid-19-incidence-861586.html
| Quote: | The government said the trials will be conducted at the National Institute for Research in Tuberculosis (NIRT) in this metropolis and sanction for the same has been accorded. The Tamil Nadu government’s announcements comes on the heels of independen...studies suggesting that the BCG vaccine, which is widely used in countries like India as part of their fight against tuberculosis (TB), is found to be effective in reducing the incidence of Covid-19 and the mortality rate
The BCG vaccine has been an integral part of India’s immunisation programmee for the past several decades. Health Minister C Vijayabhaskar said the BCG vaccine is found to be playing a role in increasing innate immunity and there are chances of reducing morbidity and mortality if the vaccine is administered to people in the age of 60 to 95 years. |
Read more at: https://www.deccanherald.com/national/tamil-nadu-to-conduct-bcg-vaccine-trials-on-elderly-to-reduce-covid-19-incidence-861586.html
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GURGLETROUSERS
Joined: 30 Dec 2009
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| Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:06 am Post subject: |
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Good finds. I particularly like - 'Whereas passing interactions among people shopping is associated with a secondary attack rate of 0,6%.4'
I don't know if you've seen the latest Oxford research news Dean, but it is reported this morning that they have made a significant breakthrough. Their vaccine can, it is claimed, provide double protection against the virus. Blood samples taken from volunteers in the phase one trials have shown that the vaccine stimulated the body to produce antibodies, AND T cells.
They are working with a big pharma company so that the vaccine could be fairly widely available around mid September. That is the kind of target they are working to. (Phase three testing is already under way with thousands of volunteers.) Even better than first proposed. |
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real-human
Joined: 02 Jul 2011
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| Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:32 pm Post subject: |
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| GURGLETROUSERS wrote: | Good finds. I particularly like - 'Whereas passing interactions among people shopping is associated with a secondary attack rate of 0,6%.4'
I don't know if you've seen the latest Oxford research news Dean, but it is reported this morning that they have made a significant breakthrough. Their vaccine can, it is claimed, provide double protection against the virus. Blood samples taken from volunteers in the phase one trials have shown that the vaccine stimulated the body to produce antibodies, AND T cells.
They are working with a big pharma company so that the vaccine could be fairly widely available around mid September. That is the kind of target they are working to. (Phase three testing is already under way with thousands of volunteers.) Even better than first proposed. |
I think the problem with their phase three testing as I noted before if it the same one, is they are using countries that have had TB vaccinations for the phase 3. There could be a huge differential for the countries that did not get that vaccination in secondary effects and body reaction. I can only assume they did this knowingly. So for us we have to be cautious and let others get it first in our countries and wait 6 months for problems and data to be shown... before we get the jab.
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GURGLETROUSERS
Joined: 30 Dec 2009
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| Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:37 pm Post subject: |
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Yes. A problem they faced in the English trials was that the rate of infection had fallen right off, and was slowing results. I certainly understand your point about testing in such places as Brazil, and I suppose they must be aware of the problems. Perhaps they will give an explanation in due course?
I think you are correct in saying us oldies would be wise in waiting 6 months after (if/when assuming all continues to plan) the vaccine is released for general
use, in case any unexpected problems arise, before risking it. No great problem for me as I said. |
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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999
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Location: Berkeley, California
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| Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:10 pm Post subject: |
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| In a pandemic, as we learned from AIDS, there is a point to moving quickly, even if it is riskier. But most vaccines entail some risk, so finding the sweet spot may take some time. |
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real-human
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