Hatteras Skunker?

[guruwind]

I'll be coming to hatteras for the first time. Been dreaming of windsurfing there for years literally. I'm passing through for a few days with my wife as part of a larger east coast road trip.
Only thing is the weather forecast looks not great. The long range forecast for the time I'm there (Sunday to Wednesday before memorial day weekend) is cloudy and rainy. 50% t-storms and the like.


Question. Are forecasts pretty accurate for hatteras that far in advance.
I know up here in the great lakes the forecasts aren't predictable that far out because of the complex lake effects.
Is this forecast a blessing in disguise that means lots of shifting pressure and decent wind when the sky opens up?

I know in the carribean the forecast can say rain everyday but thats ok because it only rains for an hour or two.

Im considering reversing the order of the entire roadtrip to take our chances in hatteras at a different date. Don't want to get skunked!!!.

Thanks anyone who can "shed some light" on the subject and "clear" my mind.

dave

[bred2shred]

On the East coast, I don't trust any forecast more than about two to three days out- if things are sounding good that far out, I'll start to pay attention. One or two days out, if I get multiple forecasts that seem to be in agreement, I'll start to get excited. But nothing really counts until the actual day. Forecasts farther than four days out, good luck.

Most of our wind is driven by fronts. They can speed up, slow down, park, intensify, weaken, go North, go South... It's not like we have a steady trade wind that blows for weeks on end. So I wouldn't put much stock in any long-term forecast.

Right now is still the windy season on the OBX (as well as much of the northern east coast). In my experience (and from many opinions) the closer to Spring & Fall that you go, the better your odds. Summer time can be pretty dismal. So your odds of getting wind right now are pretty high, but as always, there is the possibility of being skunked.

Last September I was down for a week and a half and got several windy days (some with wind in the 30's and 40's). A few weeks later, my friends went for a week and got like 1/2 a day on a 6.5- that was it. Any East coast location can be hit or miss.

sm

[PeconicPuffin]

In Hatteras you're more likely to get wind when they don't forecast it, than be skunked when they do. You're going at a great time of year...be optimistic!

I was in Hatteras two weeks ago for three days. The forecast was iffy for all three...and I sailed for at least two hours on all three.

In the Spring the wind is often a few knots stronger in the north near Salvo than it is down in Avon. Any of the shops can help point you in the right direction.

[btbill]

Well, the saying "you should have been here last week!" usually rings true for Hatteras wind, but this Spring we have simply been blasted from the SW! We have had sooo much SW wind that not only are the dune lines affected, but the ocean water is considerably warmer than is normal for this time of year. Perhaps the warm water is not caused by the wind, but rather is the cause for why we have had so much SW wind.

All in all, the forecasts are pretty accurate for Hatteras. If you view the NOAA, IWS, and WindGuru forecasts together, you can get a fairly good idea of what will happen. I include links and real time feeds to these sources on OBX Beach Life.

Also, weather here is very dependent upon where you are at on the islands. It may be blowing 15mph in Avon and 30mph in Nags Head, or the complete opposite. Nice thing is that the OBX is blanketed with IWS wind meters so its easy to know where to go during the course of any given day.

All in all, remain mobile while you are here and keep an eye on IWS for the latest OBX meter readings. The Sat/Radar view is also invaluable to see where storms cells and front lines are moving across or around the islands. Check in with the local shops too for where to go on a given day as the local advice is quite valuable. Also be sure to check the OBX Beach Life Forum for regular updates on where the local crew is going on any given windy day if you are interested in joining the fray.

[Wind-NC.com]

Your window is a little too far out to be sure. I do see a Bermuda High setting up closer to the weekend, which is a good sign for some cranking SW! But it's hard to know how long that'll last, and as of right now there's a huge SE event forecast on Tues/Wed, which rarely comes to fruition... But when it does, it can be EPIC port tack down the line wavesailing!! (if you're into that kind of thing)

Thunderstorms usually blow through pretty quickly out here, and rarely kill the whole day. (knock on wood)

Wind skunking can happen anywhere, but if it happens here, you can always go surfing, fishing, SUPing, take out the Serenity and go for a cruise, or hit the wide open empty beaches and bask in the beauty of solitude!

Hope to see you soon!

[Wind-NC.com]

It's looking pretty solid for wind Sunday through Wednesday.... Might be a bit rainy, but hey, you're getting wet anyway, right? Got your 4.2 and 80 liter board ready??

[guruwind]

Just got back fromt he trip recently.
I rented an 85 liter board and 4.2.
Ive never even used stuff that small on teh great lakes.
Unfortuneatly for me it was northeast while i was there. So pretty choppy for my jibe-learning. But still had a lot of fun. Was an interesting place for me and my wife to hang out for a couple days.