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Updated Storm BLOG!: the sponsors of the COVID talk show

 
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1646

PostPosted: Fri May 29, 2020 7:17 pm    Post subject: Updated Storm BLOG!: the sponsors of the COVID talk show Reply with quote

Hi Gang,

Update #3: Here is the promised blog with the inside story of the Matt Sounders forecast for the crazy winds Saturday as told by our text exchanges and imagery:

https://blog.weatherflow.com/west-coast-wind-blog-imagery-from-explosive-winds-in-the-gorge-may-31/

Update Sunday morning: Below is some imagery from the wind white-out at the Hatchery with gusts to 50 and Maryhill with gusts to 70. Watch for a blog tomorrow with more imagery and text.

Original Post from Friday: A long time ago this forum was primarily for the discussion of windsurfing related topics. Since that talk has been preempted by more vital topics I thought it might be fun to briefly talk about wind.

Did you notice how fast the sky changed from blue to ominous in the last few hours? Clearly something major is about to occur. Here is a blog I just wrote about the 1000 mile wide Cut-Off Low at 18,000 ft. that has Sherman Island blowing 30 knots at the moment and what that Cut-Off Low is going to do to the Gorge tomorrow.

https://blog.weatherflow.com/west-coast-wind-blog-cut-off-low-at-≈-18000-ft-brings-30-knots-sherman-is-friday-then-gorge-nukes-saturday/

Enjoy,

Mike Godsey
weatherflow.com
windalert.com
iwindsurf.com
ikitesurf.com
sailflow.com
fishweather.com
USAfishing.com



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Last edited by windfind on Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:29 pm; edited 3 times in total
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 19738

PostPosted: Fri May 29, 2020 9:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's what iW's Pro forecaster wrote:
:
When you combine the mighty WSW gradient that sets up in the afternoon with highly unusual atmospheric instability and intense wind shear aloft, what you get is a sudden, violent blast of nuking WSW winds for the Eastern Gorge but also a life-threatening risk of severe thunderstorms that could produce large hail and wind gusts in excess of 60 kt. I cannot emphasize this enough - particularly during this COVID pandemic, when emergency resources may be spread thin and help may not be as close at hand, you do not want to be on the water when a thunderstorm passes!


I hear ya, but still gotta smile because it reminds me of summertime sailing in New Mexico, where not only could we see several 60,000-foot anvil heads at once more days than not, but they were our only source of summertime wind. For several consistent hours on a 4.0 or smaller, T-storms be damned; it was time to pray'n'play. Out East Saturday, though? Fuhgheddaboutit! 50 kts gusting to 60 kt is manageable by an expert at 5,000 feet, but at sea level, when your name isn't Dougherty and your mug isn't on magazine covers ... Double Fhugheddaboutit.
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1646

PostPosted: Sat May 30, 2020 9:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Gang,

Gusts to 35 knots at my house with average winds 33 at the Hatch. Still mild winds out east.

So far the vanguard storm bands are W and E of the Gorge. Lots of lightning strikes in just one hour to the E and W. Matt Sounders says Rooster Rock saw perhaps 50 strikes within 10 miles.

See below for a 1-hour time-lapse of lightning strikes from 6:30 to 7:30 AM today.

You may have thought Matt Sounders was exaggerating about the wind and thunderstorms... not! He is the Weatherflow resident expert on these types of events. (while I could not forecast rain during the monsoon season in SE. Asia)

The main body of the storm is still to the SSW at the Oregon - California border. Let's hope the lightning stays away from the Gorge.

Meanwhile, if you are going to take a pass on today's winds here are lots of windsurfing photos and videos to pass a wild day:

https://windnotes.smugmug.com

Mike Godsey
weatherflow.com
windalert.com
iwindsurf.com
ikitesurf.com
sailflow.com
fishweather.com
USAfishing.com



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4matt
Site Admin


Joined: 27 Jun 2007
Posts: 1

PostPosted: Sat May 30, 2020 9:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I hear ya, but still gotta smile because it reminds me of summertime sailing in New Mexico, where not only could we see several 60,000-foot anvil heads at once more days than not, but they were our only source of summertime wind. For several consistent hours on a 4.0 or smaller, T-storms be damned; it was time to pray'n'play. Out East Saturday, though? Fuhgheddaboutit! 50 kts gusting to 60 kt is manageable by an expert at 5,000 feet, but at sea level, when your name isn't Dougherty and your mug isn't on magazine covers ... Double Fhugheddaboutit.


Always glad to see it when people understand their limits. Very Happy

A word of warning for those who might try to challenge this wind - these storms may well have an important difference compared to monsoon popcorn (as intense as that can be in NM!). There's a good enough balance of instability and wind-shear aloft that these storms may well rotate, turning into supercells for an hour or two as they form. You don't want to tango with a supercell - I don't see any risk for tornadoes, but still.

Also they will eventually begin to coalesce into organized squall lines, and those produce much more coherent and dangerous wind shift, gust front, and downdraft patterns that can be nearly impossible to navigate on a board.

You won't see an event like this very often - even Portland get a pounding this morning and they never get lightning!
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 19738

PostPosted: Sat May 30, 2020 5:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

4matt wrote:
Always glad to see it when people understand their limits. Very Happy

It's not just present limitations, it's also their rate of increase with age. I've seen several buds a generation my junior and with better skills than mine incur some lasting injuries expressly due to extreme gusts on more "ordinary" Gorge days. Our shoulders are especially subject to dislocation when our arms are fully extended and our shoulders already rolled forward when riding swell off the wind, and a much bigger gust slams broadside into our sail ... a common occurrence on big and unstable frontal days. At that point there's not much left to give but the ligaments and tendons in our shoulders.

Then there's the "drive-by" factor, very common the past couple of years. It's like the wind saves itself up for a week, packing all its energy into one 30-minute gust of 40-50 mph. What the heck do we do with that besides rig our smallest gear in advance, hope it's small enough, launch, then slog, swim, or get towed back home a few minutes later.

I've learned some very useful lessons from days and forecasts like that, including:
If all sources agree on such a forecast, I stay home so I'm not tempted to sail. The first time I followed that guideline, an expert sailor died out there.

If I drive anyway, I take a good book.

If I launch, I pay close attention to the sensations in my shoulders, especially when slashing HARD off the lips (a casual slash is begging for a dislocation in those conditions). One violent yank on my extended shoulders and I'm headin' for shore. (That's why I learned to sail hooked in in such conditions; it greatly extends my fun and safety ... up to a point.) I got enough dislocations racing dirt bikes.

And that's even without the T-storms. I'd need all 21 fingers and toes and both hairs on my head to count the times I've watched crowds launch into strong westerlies OBVIOUSLY caused by a T-storm to our west, only to spend the next 2 to 3 hours swimming back to shore when the storm drifted northeast and the wind abruptly switched to offshore at 5-10 mph. Who won ... those who rigged 3 sails and swam for 3 hours to catch 3 reaches, or those who ate a nice meal, read that book, and/or got a nap in preparation for the next 5 hours of good wind after the T-storms passed by ... way by?

And that's just in the garden-variety T-stormy days in the Gorge. This one sounds just a wee bit goostier. Be careful out there, and remember: In cases like this, "Macho" is Spanish for "stupid".

Oh, yes ... Supercells. They sometimes got so intense in the desert SW that they'd produce very steady (for NM) and powerful (25, 35, even 45 mph average ... 80 mph one day and night in Utah) winds a hundred miles away. Imagine that kind of power constrained and contorted by Gorge topography.

Update from evening iW summary: Arlington gusts reached hurricane velocity.
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isobans



Joined: 08 Aug 2010
Posts: 39

PostPosted: Sun May 31, 2020 3:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

isobars wrote:


If I LAUNCH, I pay close attention to the SENSATIONS in my shoulders, especially when slashing HARD off the LIPS (a casual slash is BEGGING for a dislocation in those conditions). One violent YANK on my extended shoulders and I'm HEADin' for shore.


~enough innuendo, children read this
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1646

PostPosted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Gang,

Here is a Blog that uses text exchanges and imagery to give you the inside story about explosive winds in the Gorge May 31 by Matt Sounders and Mike Godsey:

https://blog.weatherflow.com/west-coast-wind-blog-imagery-from-explosive-winds-in-the-gorge-may-31/

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com



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