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COVID models vs. data: Launch site opening?
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1648

PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:53 pm    Post subject: COVID models vs. data: Launch site opening? Reply with quote

At this point, all of us want to know when we can begin windsurfing and kiting like on a normal year. And that depends upon when the authorities stop distancing and open launch sites. And that, in turn, depends upon the COVID modeling at the state and county level.

However, if you rarely read scientific journal articles and get most of your information from blogs, TV, L. or R. wing news or politicians you can be forgiven for getting the impression that the COVID models are inaccurate or “ridiculous”

But if you actually delve into the hard data collected by thousands of physicians and scientists from many dozens of countries and their equivalents of our CDC it is clear that the COVID models have done an exceptional job of predicting the pandemic vs. the degree of distancing practiced. No data is perfect and certainly, some countries cheat and not every human has been tested but we are looking at the overall data trend pf reality vs. models pattern in dictatorships, socialist countries, democracies etc.

So scroll below and let’s take a look at the vast amount of date from around the world summarized in an animation I have annotated below. Be patient… the data is worth your time. Then come back for rest of my text.

The model's most significant error is that a month ago the model's best case scenario for the Imperial College Modeling of COVID-19 was their lowest curve (blue line). This curve assumed that only 70% of people would largely stay at home and social distance.

No one anticipated that world wide that distancing would be so closely followed by close to 100% of people. So for countries or states or cities that started early the curve was flattened more than the most optimistic models but it certainly was not “ridiculous” and the flattening was due to distancing.

Looking at the animation it is interesting to note that while all the data followed the models the countries that are more authoritarian could enforce distancing more faster and saw curves that flattened earlier.

Likewise countries with effective leadership that acted early saw curves that flattened faster. This is reflected by the fact that in every country but two the approval ratings of their leaders have gone up an incredible 30-40%

I don’t have graphs yet for state by state data for the USA but the picture emerging is clear. Just look at Florida which slowly and haphazardly adopted distancing and now has more COVID cases than Korea with a much larger population. Or look at San Francisco which started distancing early and only had a low % of COVID hospitalizations despite having an International airport with many daily flights to China.

So we have a choice when it comes to reopening our economy:
Use scientific/medical data from hospitalization rates, death rates, increased testing and soon antibody data to slowly ramp down distancing regionally. Then watch our present economic woes give way to a slow economy rebound from pent up demand.
OR

2. Use non-medical opinions from conservative bloggers, economists and politicians so we end distancing early and watch the virus rebound and cause a longer economic decline and more deaths.

This is rebound phenomenon is not just from some “ridiculous” model. It is simply history that a rebound has occurred in every epidemic in places where distancing was lifted prematurely. This is very very basic epidemiology. To ignore it is like having a non-engineer tell you “you can ignore compressional loading in building a bridge.

Incidentally, the current COVID modeling has the peak of infections reaching Hood River around April 26. Then we see the downside of the curve. And sometime after that we will see the infection rate plateauing. Next my guess is that we see rolling openings of facilities based upon # of people vs. distancing. ie. Crowded places like the Hatch may open later than The Wall.

Two of my favorite quotes “those who ignore history are bound to repeat it” & Ignore science at your own peril.”

Mike Godsey



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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 19759

PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2020 6:35 pm    Post subject: Re: COVID models vs. data: Launch site opening? Reply with quote

windfind wrote:
if you rarely read scientific journal articles and get most of your information from blogs, TV, L. or R. wing news or politicians you can be forgiven for getting the impression that the COVID models are inaccurate or “ridiculous” .

Two of my favorite quotes “those who ignore history are bound to repeat it” & Ignore science at your own peril.”

I've taken graduate courses on math modeling, and used it often in my career. I'm certainly no expert, but I do understand its principles, assumptions, limitations, and concepts. Based on that, I still regard a 100% overestimate by the NIH, the CDC, and UW/IHME models as numerically "ridiculous" when such gigantic impacts are at stake. As Dr Fauci has said many times in multiple ways, models are primarily mathematics and assumptions ... only the data are facts. The resulting responses by many governors (e.g., demanding 40,000 ventilators before admitting that only 4,000 were plenty, threatening to have one state's National Guard storm the federal mask repository and take by force trainloads of masks for itself, and diverting ultimately unneeded hospital ships to their states) and even reactions by some mayors who don't know a + sign from a - sign were based on models, panic, and disdain for religion, not on facts.

I realize that we had to act quickly and proactively, that data lag deaths, and that in this case the lag between data and projections is 2.5 weeks (as per Fauci), but there has to be a tradeoff between economic and medical risks and impacts.

I should add that my primary source of scientific data is thousands of peer-reviewed medical studies which have an existential bearing every day on the quality and length of my life. Whether I should wear a mask at Home Depot does not rise to that level. In neither case do politics, real or fake news, or blogs play a part. I'll take Dr Fauci's advice on the mask, but if I didn't ultimately defer to myself on my frequent life or death decisions, I'd be long dead before Westerners ever heard of eating bats.

Another important saying says not to throw the baby out with the bathwater.
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U2U2U2



Joined: 06 Jul 2001
Posts: 5396
Location: Shipsterns Bluff, Tasmania. Colorado

PostPosted: Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I’m still trying to get my solar calculator to work all day.
Windance has a swap scheduled for May 17th.
Interest cause I would like to go, next is scheduled in July.
So those graphs, estimates, witch doctor, and magic 8 ball being on constant use.
What’s the likelyHOOD of the May sway taking place?
I would bank on May 2021.

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westender



Joined: 02 Aug 2007
Posts: 1222
Location: Portland / Gorge

PostPosted: Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

May swap is when the tourists are in town and I don't see that happening? Does not sound like a good idea. Half the reason for going is the CGWA trailer???? Can't imagine they'll do that???
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U2U2U2



Joined: 06 Jul 2001
Posts: 5396
Location: Shipsterns Bluff, Tasmania. Colorado

PostPosted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 7:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

westender wrote:
May swap is when the tourists are in town and I don't see that happening? Does not sound like a good idea. Half the reason for going is the CGWA trailer???? Can't imagine they'll do that???



Well, you did answer. Don’t see it happening , not a good idea, can’t imagine.

I agree .

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cgoudie1



Joined: 10 Apr 2006
Posts: 2324
Location: Killer Sturgeon Cove

PostPosted: Sat Apr 18, 2020 11:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The May 17th Swap meet is not canceled...……...yet. If you really want accuracy, email Dave Nunn windance@windance.com

-Craig

U2U2U2 wrote:
westender wrote:
May swap is when the tourists are in town and I don't see that happening? Does not sound like a good idea. Half the reason for going is the CGWA trailer???? Can't imagine they'll do that???



Well, you did answer. Don’t see it happening , not a good idea, can’t imagine.

I agree .
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U2U2U2



Joined: 06 Jul 2001
Posts: 5396
Location: Shipsterns Bluff, Tasmania. Colorado

PostPosted: Sat Apr 18, 2020 11:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I know and knew it was scheduled , that’s the same as not cancelled, right?
I can call or email Dave , as I have recently. Likely he will delay and hope for the sky’s to clear.
Given the climate , meaning the thoughts, that seem to be prevalent in the Hood River , I thought I might get an opinion from those on the front line, so to speak.
The opinion offered, was well ::

Reply with quote
May swap is when the tourists are in town and I don't see that happening? Does not sound like a good idea. Half the reason for going is the CGWA trailer???? Can't imagine they'll do that???

While he doesn’t say it is a possible event, he says the above, which translates to, un likely to occur, cause it’s not a good idea.
This is the only answer to my question. The bottom line t’s as good or better than any likely to occur.

Westender: while I think you answer was wishy washy, you did answer. Appreciate your involvement.

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westender



Joined: 02 Aug 2007
Posts: 1222
Location: Portland / Gorge

PostPosted: Sat Apr 18, 2020 5:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Last time I was in WD was Feb 21 and thought it was a gamble then. I'm doing my part now by not going to HR. OR and WA have been doing a great job keeping the numbers down. I see the light at the end of the tunnel as a distant speck.
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kmf



Joined: 02 Apr 2001
Posts: 502

PostPosted: Sun Apr 19, 2020 10:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I took a walk on the Hood River waterfront during the afternoon on Sat. April 18. There were groups of individuals totally ignoring the cautions advised about social distancing, ie, a dozen teenage boys hanging after a skateboard session, and fishermen on the shore of the Hook crowding a small patch of beach in search for the elusive fish. The majority of individuals were being careful and were respecting each others space.
So my conclusion is that my wife and I, being in the risky age zone, are going to be forced to be holed up and avoid any social gatherings until a reliable vaccine is available.
The twenty or so people on the waterfront ignoring socializing distances is probably only a small sample of people in the HR area who think that this is all a joke. Thus it guarantees that this virus will be active in HR for a very long time.
I will be surprised if the beaches open up anytime soon.
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cgoudie1



Joined: 10 Apr 2006
Posts: 2324
Location: Killer Sturgeon Cove

PostPosted: Sun Apr 19, 2020 10:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bummer, so you're probably going to have to skip this season entirely,
since a vaccine is probably 9 Months away. I hope you're wrong about
the beaches, but I suspect you're right.

Stay Healthy out there,

-Craig

p.s. No late ski season here as all the resorts closed mid season. I can still hike into the snow though.

kmf wrote:
I took a walk on the Hood River waterfront during the afternoon on Sat. April 18. There were groups of individuals totally ignoring the cautions advised about social distancing, ie, a dozen teenage boys hanging after a skateboard session, and fishermen on the shore of the Hook crowding a small patch of beach in search for the elusive fish. The majority of individuals were being careful and were respecting each others space.
So my conclusion is that my wife and I, being in the risky age zone, are going to be forced to be holed up and avoid any social gatherings until a reliable vaccine is available.
The twenty or so people on the waterfront ignoring socializing distances is probably only a small sample of people in the HR area who think that this is all a joke. Thus it guarantees that this virus will be active in HR for a very long time.
I will be surprised if the beaches open up anytime soon.
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