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GURGLETROUSERS



Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 2502

PostPosted: Fri Sep 24, 2021 1:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

P.P.S. Professor Sir John Bell of Oxford backs Sarah Gilbert, and says the virus could resemble the common cold by spring next year. (Immunity boosted by vaccines AND exposure.)

Professor Ferguson, the main government advisor for the original lockdown (the greatest of the doom merchants with his over the top predictions of death) now states that it is unlikely that a full scale lockdown would be needed this winter. Coming from him, that speaks volumes! (A spring in our step indeed.)
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real-human



Joined: 02 Jul 2011
Posts: 12908
Location: on earth

PostPosted: Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

GURGLETROUSERS wrote:
P.P.S. Professor Sir John Bell of Oxford backs Sarah Gilbert, and says the virus could resemble the common cold by spring next year. (Immunity boosted by vaccines AND exposure.)

Professor Ferguson, the main government advisor for the original lockdown (the greatest of the doom merchants with his over the top predictions of death) now states that it is unlikely that a full scale lockdown would be needed this winter. Coming from him, that speaks volumes! (A spring in our step indeed.)


nice ducking by him, COULD... there are lots of coulds out there. IE we just do not know.

and thanks for these recent substantive posts...
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 16641
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

GT--I appreciate the credible posts. A welcome relief from complaints about California gleaned from Fox. Dr. Sarah Gilbert was a leader in the development of the Astra Zeneca vaccine, so she knows far more about the progress of the disease and our control efforts than the standard anti-vaxxer nonsense that gets posted. Much of what she says is solid--she has supported broadening the vaccination around the world rather than obsess about a third dose--in a risk reduction context she is spot on.

We still don't really know a number of things.

1. What level of vaccination is required to achieve herd immunity and reduce this to the level of the flu. The AZ vaccine is less effective, 63%, how much does that have to do with the levels of infection in Great Britain? Is there a stronger case for additional does because of that? AZ is restricted to those over 18, how soon can we get more young people vaccinated?

2. How effective is a previous COVID infection in providing immunity? Does it vary, as one hypothesis suggests, on the severity of the infection? Should we be working on research and tests to assess antibodies and T-cell response in those who were infected but have not yet been vaccinated?

One of the reasons that I remain skeptical of the hypothesis that infection derived immunity is superior to vaccine immunity is the number of ongoing infection and raging hotspots. We have undertested throughout most of the world, and we know that there are far more cases of COVID than confirmed cases. But we don't know how many. 20% more, 40% more, 100% more? But if we guess at 50% more, and add that to our totals of those vaccinated, we would have more than 90% of those over 12 (18 in GB) with assumed immunity--and shouldn't have raging breakouts. So I remain of the opinion (because we don't have all the facts), that mild cases don't prevent reinfection and spread.

The other thing that has become clear is that with the high infectiousness of the delta variant, herd immunity will require 90% or more vaccination or infections that confer strong immune responses.
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real-human



Joined: 02 Jul 2011
Posts: 12908
Location: on earth

PostPosted: Mon Sep 27, 2021 5:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

yep a plot by liberals to stop right wing idiots to not get vaccinated... can you believe the stupidity of right wingers and their inability to think.


‘Owning the left’
Quote:
With the death count rising, at least a few Republicans appear to be worried about what their party and its allies have sown.

In an article this month for Breitbart, the right-wing website formerly run by Steve Bannon, John Nolte argued that the partisan gap in vaccination rates was part of a liberal plot. Liberals like Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Anthony Fauci and Howard Stern have tried so hard to persuade people to get vaccinated, because they know that Republican voters will do the opposite of whatever they say, Nolte wrote.

His argument is certainly bizarre, given that Democratic politicians have been imploring all Americans to get vaccinated and many Republican politicians have not. But Nolte did offer a glimpse at a creeping political fear among some Republicans. “Right now, a countless number of Trump supporters believe they are owning the left by refusing to take a lifesaving vaccine,” Nolte wrote. “In a country where elections are decided on razor-thin margins, does it not benefit one side if their opponents simply drop dead?”

_________________
when good people stay silent the right wing are the only ones heard.
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 16641
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Mon Sep 27, 2021 9:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Darwin bats last?

One of the apparent reasons that delta is so infectious is that viral loads are 1000 times higher. That would also suggest that it is much harder for even young, healthy immune systems to fight it off before damage to the lungs, explaining the dropping average age of hospitalizations and deaths.
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swchandler



Joined: 08 Nov 1993
Posts: 10123

PostPosted: Mon Sep 27, 2021 5:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Today, based on my doctor's recommendation, I received my 3rd shot of Pfiser vaccine. I guess based on mlaronde's view of things, I'm now one step closer to the grave. Yet, I'd like to think that I'm much better prepared for this coming winter.
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 16641
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Mon Sep 27, 2021 7:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mrgybe wrote:
About 80,000 people contracted Covid 19 in China, the epicenter. 68K have recovered, 9K are being treated, 3K have died. In the 2017/18 flu season, 80,000 people died in the US alone.......40,000 in 2016/17, 23,000 in 2015/16, 50,000 in 2014/15. About 30 million people contracted flu in each of those years in the US. Where was the stock market crash, the school closings, the cancelled sports, the toilet paper hoarding then? The President is absolutely correct to give some context in order to calm the panic that is being generated by people like you and others here.


Seldom in doubt, wrong on this one--repeatedly.

Let's see, 40,000 deaths from the flu--a little less than the number of US deaths in Vietnam--and as of today, according to the New York Times, 688,000. From the hoax say Laronde and Trump. Gybe was wrong by more than an order of magnitude. Spinning for Trump is a pretty thankless task. 40% of the populace doesn't need any facts or spin to support him, the rest know he is an incompetent grifter.
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coboardhead



Joined: 26 Oct 2009
Posts: 4081

PostPosted: Mon Sep 27, 2021 7:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mac wrote:
mrgybe wrote:
About 80,000 people contracted Covid 19 in China, the epicenter. 68K have recovered, 9K are being treated, 3K have died. In the 2017/18 flu season, 80,000 people died in the US alone.......40,000 in 2016/17, 23,000 in 2015/16, 50,000 in 2014/15. About 30 million people contracted flu in each of those years in the US. Where was the stock market crash, the school closings, the cancelled sports, the toilet paper hoarding then? The President is absolutely correct to give some context in order to calm the panic that is being generated by people like you and others here.


Seldom in doubt, wrong on this one--repeatedly.

Let's see, 40,000 deaths from the flu--a little less than the number of US deaths in Vietnam--and as of today, according to the New York Times, 688,000. From the hoax say Laronde and Trump. Gybe was wrong by more than an order of magnitude. Spinning for Trump is a pretty thankless task. 40% of the populace doesn't need any facts or spin to support him, the rest know he is an incompetent grifter.


Mrgybe was right. We need to put this into context. More that one in 500 have died of CV. How's that for context?
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 20312

PostPosted: Tue Sep 28, 2021 10:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why is our government firing its employees for not masking up or refusing vaccination, yet transporting illegal aliens to YOUR home town by the hundreds of thousands without even testing them?
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wsurfer



Joined: 17 Aug 2000
Posts: 1413

PostPosted: Tue Sep 28, 2021 11:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

isobars wrote:
Why is our government firing its employees for not masking up or refusing vaccination, yet transporting illegal aliens to YOUR home town by the hundreds of thousands without even testing them?


Where do you get your facts?

Immigration and resettlement has come to a standstill during covid.
Sorry to say but most are being held in detention centers where the risk is high.
Testing is sparse.

They are not going to ship infected immigrants around the country despite your false accusation.

I So Angry.
I So Uninformed!
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