myiW Current Conditions and Forecasts Community Forums Buy and Sell Services
 
Hi guest · myAccount · Log in
 SearchSearch   ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   RegisterRegister 
Coronavirus
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 272, 273, 274, 275  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    iWindsurf Community Forum Index -> Politics, Off-Topic, Opinions
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 20312

PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2021 7:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A big part of my booster decision is based on a fact, an assumption, and policy:
Apparently a fact: A bout of Covid confers 27 times the immunity of the vaccine.

Assumption: I think I had Covid about 20 months ago, before we knew to verify or worry about it.

Policy: Agencies are trending towards offering boosters only to people with much poorer health than mine, despite my age and advanced cancer.

That's OK. It gives more time for facts to emerge.


Last edited by isobars on Wed Sep 22, 2021 1:09 pm; edited 1 time in total
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 16641
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2021 12:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Imagine that, a sensible post from Isobars. He is referring to an Israeli study that has not yet been peer reviewed--that's where the figure of 27 times more immunity originated. Let's see how it plays out. I'm not aware that there is a reliable test that can tell whether someone has previously been infected and recovered, or what level of benefit their T-cells have to fight off a subsequent infection.

It makes me wonder whether we should eventually move back to an inactivated virus to get a more robust immune response. The early research showed that Moderna and Pfizer were much more effective than J and J. On that subject, from Healthline:

Quote:
One advantage of the single-dose Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine is its one-and-done convenience.

But amid concerns over its effectiveness against the highly contagious Delta variant, a San Francisco hospital is offering people who have received the J&J vaccine a second dose of either Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna-NIAID.

Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital made the decision in conjunction with San Francisco’s Department of Public Health, reported ABC7 news.

Health officials are referring to this as a “supplemental dose” rather than a “booster dose.”

Dr. Chris Colwell, chief of emergency medicine at Zuckerberg San Francisco General, told ABC7 that this is because the extra dose that people will receive is not specific for the variants.

Both Pfizer and Moderna are developing new versions of their mRNA vaccines that target certain variants. But they’re also testing to see if a third dose of the original formulation — also a “booster” — increases protection against variants of concern such as Delta.

Whatever you call this extra dose, the goal is to provide people with additional immune protection against the coronavirus.

But do people who have had a single dose of the J&J vaccine need a booster? And if so, when?

Many questions remain about the need for booster
Dr. Larry Corey, a virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and a leader of the COVID-19 Prevention Network, said many questions about COVID-19 vaccine boosters remain unanswered.

However, data that’s available right now suggest that people who’ve had a single dose of the J&J vaccine are well protected against the Delta variant, he said.

In a study published last month in The New England of Medicine, J&J researchers found the company’s vaccine offers lasting protection.

“People had stable antibodies and broader antibodies at 8 months [after immunization] than they essentially did at 8 weeks,” said Corey, who wasn’t involved in that research.

The antibodies also offered protection against the Delta, Beta, and Gamma variants, “which suggests maturation of B-cell responses even without further boosting,” the authors wrote.

Antibodies are just one measure of the immune response to the coronavirus. B cells and T cells also play important roles in fighting the virus and preventing severe illness.

More recently, a press release detailed preliminary results from a real-world J&J vaccine effectiveness study involving almost half a million healthcare workers in South Africa.

In the study, “one dose [of J&J] did really well against Delta and Beta, with respect to mortality and hospitalizations,” said Corey. “Albeit, there was a significant number of breakthrough infections.”


However, the majority of cases that occur in fully vaccinated people do not require hospitalization.

“If you study some of the [coronavirus] cases that have happened with respect to Delta infection, when people have been vaccinated, they are mildly ill,” said Corey.

Overall, the results from the South African study — which was not peer-reviewed — show the J&J vaccine offered 91 to 96 percent protection against dying from COVID-19.

The vaccine’s efficacy against hospitalization was 65 to 67 percent, and was higher — 71 percent — when Delta was the predominant variant in the country.

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
GURGLETROUSERS



Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 2502

PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Must just finally add - Sarah Gilbert (Oxford vaccine head) yesterday -

(Quote.) "We normally see that viruses become less virulent as they circulate more easily, and there is no reason to think we will have a motre virulent version of Sars-CoV2."

She suggested that "Illness caused by the virus would become ever milder, and there will be gradual immunity developing in the population as there is to all other seasonal coronaviruses."

The other coronavirus are causes of the common cold, and Gilbert said "Eventually, Sars-CoV-2 will become one of those."

She added more detail, such as, "There aren't many places for the virus to go to have something to evade immunity but still be a really infectious virus."

I hope she is correct because It is exactly what I want to hear. Natural developed immunity indeed!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
coboardhead



Joined: 26 Oct 2009
Posts: 4081

PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

GURGLETROUSERS wrote:
Must just finally add - Sarah Gilbert (Oxford vaccine head) yesterday -

(Quote.) "We normally see that viruses become less virulent as they circulate more easily, and there is no reason to think we will have a motre virulent version of Sars-CoV2."

She suggested that "Illness caused by the virus would become ever milder, and there will be gradual immunity developing in the population as there is to all other seasonal coronaviruses."

The other coronavirus are causes of the common cold, and Gilbert said "Eventually, Sars-CoV-2 will become one of those."

She added more detail, such as, "There aren't many places for the virus to go to have something to evade immunity but still be a really infectious virus."

I hope she is correct because It is exactly what I want to hear. Natural developed immunity indeed!


Well. I hope she is correct. However, right now, 2000 a day are dying in the US and they are most likely to be unvaccinated.

This does raise the question of the benefits of vaccination in children who still seem to be a lower risk of symptomatic cases of COVID. I’m having dinner this week with my pediatrician friend. Be interesting to get his take.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 16641
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2021 11:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Other sources have said that there is no guarantee that the mutations in viruses make them less virulent. The mutation that gave us the delta variation has given us something much more transmissible, and of far greater concern when children are infected. The jury is still out as to whether or not the virus is more virulent:

Quote:
By Erika Edwards
The number of very sick children admitted to Children's Hospital New Orleans with Covid-19 has exploded over the past two weeks — from zero to 20.

"I've never seen anything like it," said Dr. Mark Kline, the hospital's physician-in-chief. "We are seeing children fall ill that we just simply didn't see in the first year of the pandemic, before the delta variant came along."

Full coverage of the Covid-19 pandemic

Doctors at Orlando Health Arnold Palmer Hospital for Children Infectious Diseases in Florida have seen similar surges recently. "The last two weeks, cases have continued to increase," said Dr. Federico Laham, medical director for the hospital. "I don't think we have reached our peak."

Despite the dramatic increase in cases, Laham and other pediatric infectious disease experts nationwide tell NBC News that there is no hard evidence yet that the delta variant has transformed the virus into something more dangerous in kids.

"It's too early to tell," said Dr. Bernhard Wiedermann, an infectious diseases specialist at Children's National Hospital in Washington, D.C. "It's going to take time and a collection of data from multiple sites to know" whether the delta variant is, in fact, more virulent in kids than previous versions of the virus.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is working to determine whether the delta variant can, in fact, cause more severe disease in children, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the CDC's director, said during a briefing Thursday.


No clear signal that it is, but the fact that many more children are being infected means that more will die and more will have long covid.

One of my friends used to say "any successful parasite keeps the host alive." He often used that in commenting about Republicans, but it is a general maxim of the evolutionary process--increase your numbers but don't wipe out the host. But the number of deaths, with proper treatment, is now well under 1%, so as long as there are many unvaccinated, there are many potential hosts.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
GURGLETROUSERS



Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 2502

PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I hadn't wanted to add more but ---

On thinking things through, the Sarah Gilbert statement, if she is correct, would mean this pandemic would be dying out and almost over (in our vaccinated countries) by this time next year. I note that one of the other vaccine makers (forget who) made a similar claim, not quite for the reasons she predicts.

Our Chief Medical Officer is also a little less gloom laden lately, and though he insists that ALL school children will inevitable encounter the delta virus and spread it about (the current surge in cases) he thinks it will stay within 'acceptable' grounds. Even he thinks the corner will be turned when this winter is over.

If this is all so, then the virus, the majority of us having been vaccinated originally and joining in with the herd immunity safety will just be a relatively bloody nuisance (like flu) to be cursed at, but little worse.

It's amazing how the hope inspired by a little brighter thinking puts life back in perspective. It's as though a black cloud is lifting a huge weight of dread off our backs. Just lets hope as many as possible get through this coming winter surge in Delta cases, then we can kick this damned virus into touch! (Always assuming, of course, that the predictions are indeed accurate.)
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
J64TWB



Joined: 24 Dec 2013
Posts: 1596

PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just remember how incredibly more contagious this is than seasonal flu. Not much more deadly at this point, but much much more contagious. That needs to recede if this is going away.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 16641
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GT—I think there is a little wishful thinking going on. Now I know I’m just a lowly engineer, and all I can think of doing is looking at trends…but this is not a gradual dying out.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
GURGLETROUSERS



Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 2502

PostPosted: Fri Sep 24, 2021 1:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I KNOW it is not dying out YET! I did not say it was!

I quoted the Chief Medical Officer who stated that ALL school children are inevitably going to meet the Delta virus, and help to spread it. But both he, and Gilbert are looking ahead to beating the virus, possibly as early as next summer, but certainly before much longer than that. (Original vaccination drive, and herd immunity effect.)

Nobody is in denial that it could become quite serious this winter, but we have to look beyond that. If we listen just to the doom mongers we would be for ever locked into a cycle of lockdowns, and outbreaks of even more dangerous mutant Covid viruses. Gilbert and the Chief Medical Officer are disputing this view of life, and offering a little hope.

That, to me, is what makes us human!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
GURGLETROUSERS



Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 2502

PostPosted: Fri Sep 24, 2021 1:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

By the way, the death rate does NOT match the growing number of cases, (vaccine success), and many of the hospital cases are not in the state people were in the earlier waves. There has been quite an advance since then.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    iWindsurf Community Forum Index -> Politics, Off-Topic, Opinions All times are GMT - 5 Hours
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 272, 273, 274, 275  Next
Page 273 of 275

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You cannot download files in this forum

myiW | Weather | Community | Membership | Support | Log in
like us on facebook
© Copyright 1999-2007 WeatherFlow, Inc Contact Us Ad Marketplace

Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group