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Look out the window Gorge Monday
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donmcd



Joined: 26 Jul 1999
Posts: 29

PostPosted: Mon Jul 15, 2019 9:50 am    Post subject: Look out the window Gorge Monday Reply with quote

Not sure what the forecaster was looking at at 7 AM on Monday. Raining and overcast but not a comment about it. Getting better forecasts from National Weather Service lately.
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ericandholly



Joined: 20 Jun 1999
Posts: 270

PostPosted: Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

iwindsurf forecasts are not so great anymore. Perhaps no longer done by locals? Last summer was way off, but luckily to my advantage.

The Gorge is a tough call, and I think local knowledge is critical. Perhaps we can get Stu back? Hire The Inflictor?
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1561

PostPosted: Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Guys,

Actually, if you look at last nights forecast it called for showers in the corridor this morning as you can see in the screenshot below.

Personally, I thought the forecaster was crazy calling for showers in July given the weather yesterday. It took guts and insight to call for those showers.

I imagine he did not mention the rain in the 7AM forecast because anyone with a window could see it was raining for themselves it was raining. He also did not mention it was cloudy.

But just in case someone does not have a window I asked him to add a sentence to the forecast.

Laura Green, "Crysta" died last fall. Like learning to jibe learning to forecast the Gorge takes time and there is no school new Gorge forecasters can go to learn the skill. If you really care about better forecasts use our feedback tool to send in your local knowledge so that can be used to fine tune the forecast.

And you may have noticed that this is an El Nino year. That makes all the old rules about Gorge forecasting not very useful. When was the last time you saw a winter type storm off the Oregon coast in mid-July?

See the 2 part blog:https://blog.weatherflow.com/west-coast-wind-blog-blame-in-on-the-kid-gorge-winds-weaken/

We have offered the forecast gig to several Gorge people with insight to local weather variables. Some have even been to Weatherflow meetings here in the Gorge. They wisely declined the gig being aware of the difficulty and lack of appreciation for trying to do the best forecast that current models and data allow. Currently, the highest resolution models in the world can not resolve the walls of the Gorge so forecasts will never make people happy until the feds get much more powerful supercomputers.

Worse, the conditions that make our wind, like the marine layer, North Pacific High, upper trough etc. are fluctuating wildly in recent years. For example, the NPH spent time in the Arctic Ocean this summer which it has never done in the 30 years I have been watching it daily. All of this will continue to make forecasting increasingly difficult.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com



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ericandholly



Joined: 20 Jun 1999
Posts: 270

PostPosted: Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sure, but this is what is advertised as a member benefit:

"Weather Forecasts Where You Sail.
Multiple Forecasts for all spots worldwide! And- Since 1987, our staff meteorologist-written PRO Forecast discussions are the gold standard: simply the finest in-depth Wind Forecasts available ANYWHERE."
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1561

PostPosted: Mon Jul 15, 2019 1:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ericandholly wrote:
Sure, but this is what is advertised as a member benefit:

"Weather Forecasts Where You Sail.
Multiple Forecasts for all spots worldwide! And- Since 1987, our staff meteorologist-written PRO Forecast discussions are the gold standard: simply the finest in-depth Wind Forecasts available ANYWHERE."


Eric,

It is hard to live up to that statement when you have lost your lead forecaster so abruptly. Perhaps you are different but for most of us takes time to learn a new skill.

Personally, it takes me about 2-3 years to learn to do passable forecasts for a new region. And even after a decade I still screw up regularly.

But there is a reason government and private agencies from NOAA to the Defense Threat Reduction Agency to the Defense Department to Matson Ocean Shipping etc. use our services: https://weatherflow.com/clients-and-partners/

So my guess is that once new forecasters learn the Gorge the forecast accuracy will improve.

Meanwhile please send me a link to a Gorge forecast with a greater in-depth forecast discussion than this one:

Late, east-favoring westerlies

Morning Update: As expected a weak surface low has begun to interact with the existing mid-level frontal boundary draped over the Corridor. Although low clouds in the western Corridor are fairly sparse, the region is currently overspread by mid-level clouds associated with the anticipated surface eddy over the Pacific. It's actually making for a mostly cloudy morning from Stevenson to Event Site, not to mention creating widespread showers, even a few of which are sneaking east as far as The Wall. Some thunder is even possible from The Dalles east with the warmer air ahead of the mid-level front. This isn't favorable for pressure gradient increases until we see those clouds and showers push northeast out of the area. Once that happens, the marine layer isn't looking all that dominant, so there may be a period of steadier winds in the Corridor, but that isn't likely until the afternoon. At the moment, the sensors are reading a bit optimistically at The Hatch and VIento - both sites are surrounded by patches of lulls and have seen aggressive up and down volatility already.

Oregon Coast: More clouds than sun, especially north of Florence. Winds stay below 15 kt (mostly below 10 kt) and highly vary in direction. W Swell 3 ft. 11 sec.

Lower Columbia/Western Gorge (Jones Beach to Stevenson): Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Jones Beach sees afternoon W mid-teens. Stevenson sees up and down SW upper-teens, highest late in the day.

Corridor (Viento to Sandbar): Morning marine clouds reach Event Site and a few showers possibly reach Viento. The marine clouds pull back a bit but terrain-forced cumulus and even showers return thereafter. Up and down westerlies build to near 20...perhaps the low-20's after 2 PM.

Near East (Mosier to Doug's Beach): Variably cloudy. Up and down westerlies stabilize some after 2 PM and reach the mid to upper-20's at Doug's.

East (Maryhill to Arlington): West winds peak in the upper-20's late.

River water temperature at John Day Dam: 69 F
Jones Beach Light 8 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A 12P 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P 8P
Speed (kts) 2 - 6 5 - 9 6 - 10 8 - 12 12 - 16 10 - 14
Direction W WSW WSW WSW W W
Stevenson Light 15 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A 12P 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P 8P
Speed (kts) 9 - 13 11 - 15 13 - 17 17 - 21 16 - 20 15 - 19
Direction WSW SW SW SW SW SW
Swell City 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A 12P 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P 8P
Speed (kts) 13 - 17 14 - 18 15 - 19 18 - 22 17 - 21 17 - 21
Direction W WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW
Event Site DB1 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A 12P 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P 8P
Speed (kts) 12 - 16 13 - 17 14 - 18 16 - 20 16 - 20 16 - 20
Direction W WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW
Dougs 57A 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A 12P 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P 8P
Speed (kts) 6 - 10 14 - 18 19 - 23 23 - 27 24 - 28 22 - 26
Direction NNW NNW NW WNW WNW WNW
Maryhill 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A 12P 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P 8P
Speed (kts) 7 - 11 12 - 16 19 - 23 25 - 29 26 - 30 26 - 30
Direction WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW
Arlington Port 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A 12P 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P 8P
Speed (kts) 8 - 12 12 - 16 16 - 20 18 - 22 21 - 25 24 - 28
Direction WSW W W W W W
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ericandholly



Joined: 20 Jun 1999
Posts: 270

PostPosted: Mon Jul 15, 2019 2:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hmmm

What several of us are saying is, the forecasts are not that great. Your reply is pretty much, "It's the best we can do."

Fair enough

As a consumer of your product I can decide to put up with it, or move on

Eric
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 19314

PostPosted: Mon Jul 15, 2019 2:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I base my decisions on whether to drive on about six different forecast sources ... and a dart. None stands out in reliability, thus the dart. I also seldom start my engine until the wind is both forecast and sailable, and let the initial fluctuations and resultant rigging frenzies settle down during my 70-mile drive. The biggest problem with that is when no one, or at most one source, forecasts significant wind when every one else says fugheddaboutit.

What source does that -- correctly -- most often, at least for my most common destination? The only one who's not a professional meteorologist: Temira. Howzzat for the value of local knowledge?
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 19314

PostPosted: Mon Jul 15, 2019 2:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

windfind wrote:
<snip>
Jones Beach Light 8 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A 12P 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P 8P
Speed (kts) 2 - 6 5 - 9 6 - 10 8 - 12 12 - 16 10 - 14
Direction W WSW WSW WSW W W
Stevenson Light 15 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A 12P 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P 8P
Speed (kts) 9 - 13 11 - 15 13 - 17 17 - 21 16 - 20 15 - 19
Direction WSW SW SW SW SW SW
Swell City 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A 12P 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P 8P
Speed (kts) 13 - 17 14 - 18 15 - 19 18 - 22 17 - 21 17 - 21
Direction W WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW
Event Site DB1 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A 12P 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P 8P
Speed (kts) 12 - 16 13 - 17 14 - 18 16 - 20 16 - 20 16 - 20
Direction W WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW
Dougs 57A 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A 12P 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P 8P
Speed (kts) 6 - 10 14 - 18 19 - 23 23 - 27 24 - 28 22 - 26
Direction NNW NNW NW WNW WNW WNW
Maryhill 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A 12P 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P 8P
Speed (kts) 7 - 11 12 - 16 19 - 23 25 - 29 26 - 30 26 - 30
Direction WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW
Arlington Port 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A 12P 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P 8P
Speed (kts) 8 - 12 12 - 16 16 - 20 18 - 22 21 - 25 24 - 28
Direction WSW W W W W W


But that's much like the government's accuracy protocol: Measure it with a laser, mark it with spray paint, and cut it with an axe.
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gorgetec



Joined: 05 Apr 2000
Posts: 33

PostPosted: Mon Jul 15, 2019 5:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have to agree.... the forecasts this year have been especially off target. Too much meteorologist mumbo jumbo.... Perhaps tone it down and look at the micro climate of The Gorge or perhaps hire Temira?
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donmcd



Joined: 26 Jul 1999
Posts: 29

PostPosted: Mon Jul 15, 2019 7:22 pm    Post subject: Look out the window Gorge Monday Reply with quote

Don't mean to put down anyone learning. Old dogs get used to a reliable voice and I do miss Laura more than I can adequately express. Not just for the forecasts but for her wonderful presence that I took to be forever or at least longer than my term. I did not check the Sunday night forecast and there was possible rain showers in the Western Gorge mentioned. I live East of Dougs and it was raining hard here all morning. I appreciate the meters and the data that I have learned to interpret in accordance with the variables of the location. We all do. I have no intention of discontinuing my long long membership. One love.
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