Mac asks: So why is this the gustiest season of memory?

WNDZRFR · Posted: Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:59 am Post subject:

Just as Trump is great for late night talk show hosts and comedians, climate change gives a new and exciting challenge to weather men!

ctuna · Joined: 27 Jun 1995 Posts: 1125 Location: Santa Cruz Ca

If you are lucky enough to get Gusts
Actually last year was pretty gusty to.
I can't remember many even days.
Never use to hear about Eddy coming to town.

dllee · Joined: 03 Jul 2009 Posts: 5329 Location: East Bay

Some years are good, some years are bad.
We change just as much.

windsrf · Joined: 01 May 1998 Posts: 464

Mike,

Your #1 point helps explain why even the hot Central Valley days we've had don't result in the smooth "pull" of winds from GG across the Eastbay.

Thanks, David

mac · Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 1:01 pm Post subject:

Mike--your graphic which shows the two lobes of the north Pacific High helps explain things as they are now. NOAA has indeed called the current situation an El Nino, but last fall (as of October) predicted a weak El Nino. Did the temperature anomaly strengthen over the winter? Or did it strengthen in the Spring, leading to NOAA's update in April?

We know that there is a lot of heat stored in the deep ocean, but El Nino is a surface phenomenon, and I believe that there is still an active debate over how much the deep ocean temperatures and surface temperatures are linked. Have you seen any research that provides a more definitive picture, or any statistical analysis that shows a statistically significant increase in either the frequency or the strengthen of El Nino events?

dllee · Joined: 03 Jul 2009 Posts: 5329 Location: East Bay

Could ANOTHER 5-17 mph day be brewing for Berkeley?
All indicators do show it coming.
Maybe I should rig bigger than 5.3?1

windfind · Joined: 18 Mar 1997 Posts: 1901

Hi Mac:

Current El Nino status
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html

Since El Nino involves the full width of the Pacific and the current ocean buoy array to record that huge span of water is quite new it is hard to directly know if El Ninos are have become more common.

So scientists study other variables that are highly correlated with ocean and air temps. Among these variables studying isotope patterns in coral reef core samples and tree rings. Basically, these studies strongly suggest that El Nino patterns have become more common over the last 400 years.

Whether El Nino are becoming stronger is a much tougher question since El Ninos vary from very weak to very strong and we only have a small time section of solid data.

Regarding deep ocean temperatures: this study in the premiere Journal Nature covers the deep water data from the epic 19th century Challenger expedition to the array of Argo floats that profile temps down to 2000 meter depths.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2915.epdf?referrer_access_token=8SznqZ834K3wu2IcVDhhlNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0O52T_z3xdIZTeJhjUyMTWREQtgEo_1gP3K5ezHJr6e6d9v4hD0rDYlp7TW72Lwdes-EA_3ms6iOmza4WNC0VAODs6vPgdNiYCxi5iint2Xf_Cs2GNJUkw9Cf8XAYzUBMzMYiCgE8SZuuS-0vjJaiu7EjYhQVHxMhdwvEnXVkHGEJZYJ0gu127BIusUW95mmhnxw3-1RyayiTSL1jb01UEa&tracking_referrer=www.theguardian.com

Mike Godsey

us44eric · Joined: 25 Jun 2003 Posts: 24

Tying in to Mac's, Mike's, and dllee's comments --- Look at the crazy anomalous conditions at Berkeley yesterday, including SE 10-17mph in July, not on a rainy day.

Often iW forecasts talk about potential East Bay shut downs or shifty conditions, particularly when there's NW wind influence. But yesterday the WSW wind at Berkeley was dismal and brief. It then began to slightly build and sustain for a few hours to ~10-17mph, BUT this occurred as it clocked back to S, SSE, SE!!!

MalibuGuru · Joined: 11 Nov 1993 Posts: 9300

Meanwhile down here, point conception is blowing 42 to almost 50. Spring pattern in summer