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What do the 2018 midterms mean?
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mat-ty



Joined: 07 Jul 2007
Posts: 7850

PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2018 8:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mac wrote:
Look at the numbers. Significant shift away from Republicans/Trump in all categories. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/17/opinion/sunday/trump-is-beginning-to-lose-his-grip.html



Happens to the party NOT IN POWER, in the mid-terms every 4 years....
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
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Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2018 8:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Obviously Matty didn’t read the article. But he is whistling past the graveyard all the same.
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real-human



Joined: 02 Jul 2011
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mat-ty wrote:
mac wrote:
Look at the numbers. Significant shift away from Republicans/Trump in all categories. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/17/opinion/sunday/trump-is-beginning-to-lose-his-grip.html



Happens to the party NOT IN POWER, in the mid-terms every 4 years....


I do not remember a president out campaigning like this ever during a midterm.

and I never heard of such a result when the economy was at a low unemployment...

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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Matty knows nothing about elections that is not fed him by Fox or talk radios. Let's look a little at elections since the Obama sweep in 2008, using total votes in the House of Representatives, and turnout, as metrics.

2008

Total turnout was 62%. The total vote in the House was 65.2 million for Democratic candidates and 52.2 million votes for Republicans.

2010--the Tea Party Revolt

Total turnout was down dramatically. Sources vary, But let's use 41%, which is the turnout for the House. Turnout for typical Democratic voters was down even more--48.6% of whites voted, 44% of blacks voted, 31.2% of Hispanics voted, and 31% of Asians voted. Total vote was 44.8 million for Republican candidates and 39 million for Democratic candidates, and the Reeps took back the house.

2012--Obama re-elected

Turnout was up, but under 2008, at 59%. For House elections, 59.6 million voted for the Democratic candidate, and 58.2 million for the Republican--but the Republicans won 234 seats, compared to 201 for Democrats.

2014--another midterm

By some accounts, turnout was at a 70 year low; estimates for turnout vary again, from 36.4% to 41.9%. The youth vote in particular dropped, from 36% to 26%. White turnout was 45.8%, black turnout was 40.6%, and Hispanic turnout 27%. Popular vote favored Republican candidates by a 40 million to 35.6 million margin.

2016

Turnout was high and the House elections close. Turnout was 54.7%, and Republican house candidates got slightly more votes, 63.4 million vs. 62.3 million.

2018

Turnout was up for a midterm, somewhat more than 47% with final tabulations not yet made. The vote in the House was 58.6 milion for Democratic candidates and only 50.1 million for Republicans. Not only was this more than 8 million more votes, it also reverse the 5 million vote advantage that Republicans had in 2012. It is not clear that a huge number of Republican voters switched, the result was largely a matter of Democrats getting their voters to the polls.

The difference is by gender. Women preferred Democratic candidates by a margin of 59% to 40%. Only non-college educated men stayed strong for the Trump-led Republican party, at 66% red, 32% blue. All other voting groups had voters fleeing the Republican party.

I see three take home messages. First, gerrymandering has kept Republican representation disproporionately strong for the last decade. Huge gains in Democratic governorships and state houses should reverse that some. Second, the Democrats know their voters, and got them out in 2018. They did very well in the House--gaining nearly 40 seats. Republican gains in the 2014 midterms by comparison were 13--they won 16 seats that had been held by Democrats and lost 3. Third, Trump and his minions have deeply offended women--and they showed it at the polls.

By no means are the 2018 midterms typical of midterm losses, despite what Matty wants to believe.
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mat-ty



Joined: 07 Jul 2007
Posts: 7850

PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mac wrote:
Matty knows nothing about elections that is not fed him by Fox or talk radios. Let's look a little at elections since the Obama sweep in 2008, using total votes in the House of Representatives, and turnout, as metrics.

2008

Total turnout was 62%. The total vote in the House was 65.2 million for Democratic candidates and 52.2 million votes for Republicans.

2010--the Tea Party Revolt

Total turnout was down dramatically. Sources vary, But let's use 41%, which is the turnout for the House. Turnout for typical Democratic voters was down even more--48.6% of whites voted, 44% of blacks voted, 31.2% of Hispanics voted, and 31% of Asians voted. Total vote was 44.8 million for Republican candidates and 39 million for Democratic candidates, and the Reeps took back the house.

2012--Obama re-elected

Turnout was up, but under 2008, at 59%. For House elections, 59.6 million voted for the Democratic candidate, and 58.2 million for the Republican--but the Republicans won 234 seats, compared to 201 for Democrats.

2014--another midterm

By some accounts, turnout was at a 70 year low; estimates for turnout vary again, from 36.4% to 41.9%. The youth vote in particular dropped, from 36% to 26%. White turnout was 45.8%, black turnout was 40.6%, and Hispanic turnout 27%. Popular vote favored Republican candidates by a 40 million to 35.6 million margin.

2016

Turnout was high and the House elections close. Turnout was 54.7%, and Republican house candidates got slightly more votes, 63.4 million vs. 62.3 million.

2018

Turnout was up for a midterm, somewhat more than 47% with final tabulations not yet made. The vote in the House was 58.6 milion for Democratic candidates and only 50.1 million for Republicans. Not only was this more than 8 million more votes, it also reverse the 5 million vote advantage that Republicans had in 2012. It is not clear that a huge number of Republican voters switched, the result was largely a matter of Democrats getting their voters to the polls.

The difference is by gender. Women preferred Democratic candidates by a margin of 59% to 40%. Only non-college educated men stayed strong for the Trump-led Republican party, at 66% red, 32% blue. All other voting groups had voters fleeing the Republican party.

I see three take home messages. First, gerrymandering has kept Republican representation disproporionately strong for the last decade. Huge gains in Democratic governorships and state houses should reverse that some. Second, the Democrats know their voters, and got them out in 2018. They did very well in the House--gaining nearly 40 seats. Republican gains in the 2014 midterms by comparison were 13--they won 16 seats that had been held by Democrats and lost 3. Third, Trump and his minions have deeply offended women--and they showed it at the polls.

By no means are the 2018 midterms typical of midterm losses, despite what Matty wants to believe.



You sound like the dipshits who say Rodgers is better than Brady.....Its about the hardware retard...….Clintons first mid-term....52 house seats lost...8 senate seats...

This last election had historical turn outs for the Dems because of their deep loathing of Trump, a two year hissy fit and a constant drum beat from the media and the Hollywood retards....You're over thinking it nitwit...Bottom line , Trumps loses despite the historical hatred was par for the course and he actually picked up seats in the Senate.....Hardware moron..
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Math is lost on anyone who has to take off his shoes to count past ten.
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real-human



Joined: 02 Jul 2011
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Location: on earth

PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2018 12:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.newsweek.com/mia-love-concedes-utah-congress-race-1229829

REPUBLICAN MIA LOVE OFFICIALLY CONCEDES UTAH HOUSE RACE TO BEN MCADAMS, DEMOCRATIC OPPONENT

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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2018 11:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

8.7 million more Democratic votes than Republican votes. Largest margin of victory ever. Trump approval at 38%, disapproval at 60%. Could these two things be related?
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mat-ty



Joined: 07 Jul 2007
Posts: 7850

PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mac wrote:
8.7 million more Democratic votes than Republican votes. Largest margin of victory ever. Trump approval at 38%, disapproval at 60%. Could these two things be related?


Average losses in the HOR and near historical gains in the Senate despite the historical turn out for dummyrats...

Yes the dems rage and motivation was historical, but the gains were not even close to historical.....

For a Critical Thinker you are apparently a little dense...

8 million more voters and you lose seats in the Senate?? and your gains in the HOR were good but no way near historical??

By the way you picked the lowest approval number you could find, some are as high as 50% average around 44%
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boggsman1



Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 9118
Location: at a computer

PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 9:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Matty, please stop. You're redefining dummy. It was the largest gain for the Dems since 1974, that's 44 years ago, quite a while. And if you take a look at the Senate , it would have been very difficult for the Dems to sweep into power, given the seats they were defending in Red states. Let me give you an example because facts seem to elude you. In North Dakota, the entire state is smaller than 20 House districts in CA. So, winning there would have been tough. For the Dems, it was historic...it didn't compare to the shellacking Obama took in 2010, but it was a significant rebuke to Mr. Drumpf. Losing 40 seats when the unemployment rate is 3.7% is quite an achievement.
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