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boggsman1
Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 9120
Location: at a computer
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 Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:41 pm Post subject: |
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| mrgybe wrote: | | Boggsy, They didn't deserve a play off spot. Too inconsistent. See! That's how to accept reality. It's clear from your earlier post you are still struggling with that concept. "No president will inherit a better situation"........is everyone in SF delusional? |
Give it a shot. Nixon in 1968, no way raging war.
Carter in 1976, horrible economy, post war. Nope.
Reagan in 1980, nope, raging inflation.
Clinton, 1992, doh, nope, economy stupid.. Bush 2000, nope, post tech crash, terrorism brewing. Obama 2008, unemployment 10%, housing crash meltdown.
Pick one of the transitions where the situation was better than today, go ahead. |
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mrgybe
Joined: 01 Jul 2008
Posts: 5180
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| Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:01 am Post subject: |
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| The country is in a more precarious financial condition than at any time since 1966. The world is a more dangerous place than at any time since 1966. The country is more divided than at any time since 1966. Government is more dysfunctional that at any time since 1966. America's influence in the world is lower than at any time since 1966. I could go on but I have better things to do. |
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swchandler
Joined: 08 Nov 1993
Posts: 10588
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| Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:20 am Post subject: |
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| mrgybe, I have to ask, how old were you in 1966? |
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boggsman1
Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 9120
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| Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:50 am Post subject: |
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| mrgybe wrote: | | The country is in a more precarious financial condition than at any time since 1966. The world is a more dangerous place than at any time since 1966. The country is more divided than at any time since 1966. Government is more dysfunctional that at any time since 1966. America's influence in the world is lower than at any time since 1966. I could go on but I have better things to do. |
I certainly disagree with just about everything above. crazy alternate universe talk, Mr Gybe....stop reading Breitbardt. |
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mrgybe
Joined: 01 Jul 2008
Posts: 5180
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| Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:17 am Post subject: |
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| As you should know by now by now, my realism has trumped (sorry, that was insensitive) your irrational exuberance every time. You should also know that I never say anything without being able to back it up.........a novel concept for you left coast dwellers. |
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boggsman1
Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 9120
Location: at a computer
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| Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:17 pm Post subject: |
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| Don't tell that irrational exuberance tale to the market or my w-2. Your commentary is 100% opinion...nothing more, probably something less.. No president in my lifetime has inherited a better hand than The Donald, I'm happy for him, and It certainly will help him get off to a running start. |
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mrgybe
Joined: 01 Jul 2008
Posts: 5180
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| Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:29 pm Post subject: |
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| I'll put your views right alongside your predictions of 7% GDP growth and a market disaster if Trump won.......and blaming global warming for the lack of snow in your favorite ski spots a year or so ago. |
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boggsman1
Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 9120
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| Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:49 pm Post subject: |
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| That's fine, you can file that right next to your prediction about Apple sans Steve Jobs. |
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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17747
Location: Berkeley, California
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| Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:31 pm Post subject: |
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It is actually useful to use metrics, because they can be debated with facts. You won't find those on Fox,, or in Breitbart. This is a preposterous statement:
| Quote: | | The country is in a more precarious financial condition than at any time since 1966 |
In 2008, when Obama took office, personal debt was at a record high, the economy was shedding jobs at a rate higher than during the Depression, and the fall in personal wealth continued until $16 trillion in wealth had disappeared. A small number of hedge funds made a killing, but the world economy was in the tank, and it was driven by careless banking practices, a complete collapse in consumer confidence, and a severe contraction in consumer spending. Even if you wanted to make a consumer purchase like a car, credit for most people was unavailable.
To be a bit more specific, with my source in quotes Tim Geithner's book "Stress Test", here are the metrics for the economy as of 2008. According to NPR, American households lost an estimated $16 trillion in wealth beginning in 2007. Geithner describes it in this way: "American households lost 16 percent of their wealth in 2008, driven by falling home prices and stock prices, a decline five times larger than the 3 percent loss of wealth during the financial shock that precipitated the Depression in 1929." The cascading effect of lost wealth and lost confidence caused a sharp contraction in consumption, which for better or worse, remains the driving wheel in our economy. Geithner continues that "We thought we were losing about 500,000 jobs a month, the initial government estimates were later revised to more than 750,000." The contraction in the fourth quarter was an 8.3% decline, "depression numbers." Bush had proven ineffective at pushing through TARP, or indeed even drafting a bill that would result in any return to the Treasury. Obama and Pelosi delivered the votes (and the quality legislation) that resulted in stemming the bleeding.
There is no doubt that TARP worked in stemming the panic; the only real debate among those who actually use numbers is whether or not it made a small profit or a medium sized profit. The banks were not nationalized, and again according to NPR, the economy has recovered $14.6 trillion of the $16 trillion that was lost. Household debt is down substantially, although creeping back up. Unemployment is down under 5%, although I expect to read that standard conservative talking point that workforce participation is down. While that may be true, the impact is relatively slight compared to the severe recession and recovery. Check out this source: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-participation-rate
Here is their first paragraph:
| Quote: | | Labor Force Participation Rate in the United States decreased to 62.70 percent in November from 62.80 percent in October of 2016. Labor Force Participation Rate in the United States averaged 63 percent from 1950 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 67.30 percent in January of 2000 and a record low of 58.10 percent in December of 1954. |
Conservatives have cherry-picked a small section of the data, without actually paying attention to the trend.
Mrgybe was among those on the right calling for austerity in the face of the worst economic downturn in our history. Conservatives are correct that Keynesian economics requires deficit spending in such down turns. But of course the Chicago school told us that de-regulating the banks would be good for us all. If you look at the numbers without bias, the deficit spending of the Obama years prevented a much more serious recession or depression, and had a positive benefit to cost ratio. That doesn't mean that we shouldn't cut back now--but Trump and Ryan propose policies that would be a disaster.
http://crfb.org/blogs/has-president-obama-doubled-national-debt
Some can always see the glass as more than half empty. Especially if a liberal President was responsible for making sure that it wasn't completely empty. |
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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17747
Location: Berkeley, California
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| Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:59 pm Post subject: |
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| mrgybe wrote: | | The world is a more dangerous place than at any time since 1966. . |
The perception of danger, and the eagerness for a strong man to deal with it, is indeed one of the things that distinguishes the left and the right. But using metrics, mrgybe's claim is again, wait for it, factually wrong. I had heard of this book sometime back, and it is time to revisit what the facts are.
| Quote: | Steven Pinker’s excellent 2011 book, The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why violence has declined, upsets many people. They believe that the world is more dangerous — now than ever before. And they believe it is dangerous to go around saying that the world isn’t more dangerous now. They are wrong, according to Pinker. And this is because of human psychology. There is, here, a fascinating story to tell about us and our fears.
Some readers might not want to tackle the hefty Better Angels, from cover to cover, it is almost 800 pages long. Never fear: Pinker has in several places provided good synopses of his research and conclusions. One can google “Pinker, safer world,” or read this or this or this.
Let’s have our own synopsis (these four passages are quotes, taken from Pinker’s and Mack’s December, 22 2014 Slate article).
Homicide. Worldwide, about five to 10 times as many people die in police-blotter homicides as die in wars. And in most of the world, the rate of homicide has been sinking.
Violence Against Women. The intense media coverage of famous athletes who have assaulted their wives or girlfriends, and of episodes of rape on college campuses, have suggested to many pundits that we are undergoing a surge of violence against women. But the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics’ victimization surveys (which circumvent the problem of underreporting to the police) show the opposite: Rates of rape or sexual assault and of violence against intimate partners have been sinking for decades, and are now a quarter or less of their peaks in the past.
Violence Against Children. A similar story can be told about children. The incessant media reports of school shootings, abductions, bullying, cyberbullying, sexting, date rape, and sexual and physical abuse make it seem as if children are living in increasingly perilous times. But the data say otherwise: Kids are undoubtedly safer than they were in the past.
War. . . . In a historically unprecedented development, the number of interstate wars has plummeted since 1945, and the most destructive kind of war, in which great powers or developed states fight each other, has vanished altogether.
There’s more (and of course, much more in Pinker’s book), but this paints the picture we need: Our current world is the safest time in all of human history. In his Wall Street Journal article, Pinker sums this up his conclusions: “Violence has been in decline for thousands of years, and today we may be living in the most peaceable era in the existence of our species.” Hallelujah!
Nevertheless we Americans do fear (and not just Americans). Few will relax and rejoice upon learning of Professor Pinker’s data-driven conclusions about the decline of violence. Many will find his conclusions unbelievable (partly because we are a nation that doesn’t like or trust science). In fact, we know that there is an entire political campaign for the U. S. presidency based on fear of increasing violence: The campaign of Mr. Trump.
Mr. Trump has repeatedly stressed the increasing violence here in the U. S., and the increasing war and destruction abroad. According to Vox, Trump said in his speech of July 21, 2016 that ‘America is more dangerous "than I have ever seen and, frankly, than anybody in this room has ever seen."’ (Dara Lind, Vox, July 22, 2016). Enough people believe him, enough people feel the truth that violence and danger are increasing, that Mr. Trump is not only the Republican nominee for the presidency, he is doing well in the polls.
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I guess we have to consider grabbing women by the pussy to be non-violent. |
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