Pacific Heat Blob: implications for winter and summer

[windfind]

Hi Gang,

I was surprised by the number of page views on my last post about the Pacific Northwest and El Nino. So here is a follow up.

Looking at my last forum post take a glance at the land temperature anomalies for the entire Pacific Northwest last fall through spring.

Notice that of the 266,000 sq. miles of the Pacific Northwest only a few square miles of one mountain range in Montana did not have abnormally high temperature averages from Oct. through March.

When you see that much terrain having the same pattern over many months you are not seeing the vagaries of weather but rather short term climate change.

What caused all that excessive temperature? As I mentioned in a previous blog the Ridiculously Resistant Ridge held position at about 18,000 ft. over the eastern pacific and western North America much of last winter.

This in turn created the unprecedented Pacific Heat Blob that has produced abnormally warm water for much of the West coast from parts of Alaska to Baja.

So the average land temperatures along much of the west coast will be warmer again this winter since:

1. There is a building El Nino that should give the Pacific Northwest a mild winter.

2. The Pacific Heat Blob will tend to limit the amount of land cooling and will make rain more likely than snow.

3. The PDO or Pacific Decadal Oscillation has been in its negative cooler phase in recent years. This has kept the Pacific cooler which has allowed it to absorb enormous amounts of heat. And the PDO looks poised to slide into its positive phase which means additional heat for the Pacific.

And what might this mean for our 2016 summer winds?

Did you notice how rare it was to see marine layer clouds in the western corridor this summer?

A warmer pacific means thinner marine layer clouds that often do not make it to the Gorge. That in turn means a weaker pressure gradient. Worse, warmer air does not stay attached to the water surface like cooler air.

Put that all together and theory predicts weaker and more up and down wind. And that is certainly what we saw much of last summer.

So heres hoping that the El Nino dies fast and the Pacific Heat Blob gets job in a horror movie and departs our waters by next June.

But looking at the 1 year animation below of sea temperature anomalies. I am not too hopeful.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com

[isobars]

[biffmalibu]

Awesome.
Minimal snow-->no skiing/snowboard. Why live/stay in the Gorge during Winter? Also, reduced runoff for streams to sustain recreation.
Low rainfall-->low river level, dry tinder in the forest and shrubland. Also, reduced fish, kayak, and raft fun.
Increased irrigation needs for agriculture-->further reduction of river level, especially during summertime.
Abnormally warm water-->fish kills. Salmon, steelhead, etc. Carp will thrive though. Yey.
Pine beetles/tree fungus (just look around between Hood River and Portland)-->more dry tinder/fuel for wildfires-->increased risk for major fire within the next 5-10 years a la Colorado, etc.. Just wait. What magical entity will be able to put out THAT Gorge fire in July or August? Galactus? Imagine entire summers with endless smolder and irritated eyes/lungs. The stunning sunsets will be nice though.
Poor marine layer at Pacific Crest during summer-->weak-ass Gorge wind continues (concurring with Isobars re: all too brief or nonexistent Dawn Patrols). 5.2m sails and 14m kites hit record highs for retail sales. Woohoo. Sorry, but 5.2 does not officially constitute a Dawn Patrol unless you weigh 300#.
California-style absurd property value increases in Gorge-->mortgage slavery without corresponding income increase. Also, negative societal aspects increase (haves vs. have-nots).
More negative social aspects: "I've got MINE. Screw YOU!" Vanishing middle class-->creation of Servants and Masters in community. Already happening actually.
Meat industry continues marching on around the world. USA. Brazil. Global warming (yeah, it's for real, measured by water temperature...Earth is a water planet, fyi) is exacerbated by even MORE greenhouse gas (burping/pooping cows make methane, which traps about 30x more heat than CO2. Yeah, the very powerful meat industry/lobby deserves more exposure for this. Instead, CO2 is conveniently scapegoated. And we have "carbon credits". There ought to be METHANE CREDITS). The "lungs" of South America continue to be clearcut for more needless beef farms (burps and farts); a double-whammy of destruction and production.

*I almost forgot about the melting of methane hydrate in the tundra regions and bottom of the ocean. Probably much more of that sort methane release than from livestock. But we have no direct control over hydrate melting.

I like to look at the Hatch photos lately; the Columbia River is starting to resemble pre-dam era around there at times. It is really not that wide in many areas during a drought. The shallow areas are vast.

Considering all the negative forces, I wonder how long Gorge residents and businesses (including especially real estate companies) will be able to perpetuate the hype of the Gorge being the "greatest place ever". 5 years? 10 years? Who will be there (with rolled cold CASH) to pick up the pieces? More Californians? New Yorkers? Chinese?

[windfind]

Incidentally if you compare the 2nd and 3rd sea temperature anomaly globes you will notice a very distinct north atlantic cold blob has developed in the last year.

That cold blob is disturbing because several years ago it was predicted by the climate models to appear later this decade.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com

[biffmalibu]

Is the NACB (North Atlantic Cold Blob) perhaps due to accelerated runoff of cold fresh melt water from Greenland? I think this is one proposed theory.

[isobars]

[KGB-NP]

What does this all translate into for OR coastal conditions for summer 2016? It's on my bucket list to be scratched off for next summer.

I'm with Isobars on the 5.2M (me 205lbs). I scored almost 4 hrs on 5.2 yesterday, and I LOVE sailing 5.2M!!!!! It's probably my favourite sail size (given my skill level).

[biffmalibu]

I admit having a lot of good times on 5.2. But those are usually from warm summer days, not at dawn. Watching the sun rise through a wall of water (which takes much more wind) in front of you is much different and a unique aspect of Dawn Patrol.

[windfind]

Here are some sites that talk about likely causes of the north atlantic cold blob. There are some interesting videos and a slide presentations.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/north-atlantic-cold-blob-could-affect-gulf-stream-weather-europe-eastern-us/52869594

http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/north-atlantic-cold-blob

Mike

[isobars]