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Blog: UPDATED 5PM with crazy wind imagery

 
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1559

PostPosted: Fri Oct 02, 2015 7:57 pm    Post subject: Blog: UPDATED 5PM with crazy wind imagery Reply with quote

Hi Gang.

Update 5PM: The blog has been updated with imagery showing the crazy winds today. Some of this imagery has been added below.

8:30 AM today. Below is an animation of the winds from the surface at intervals up to 18,000 ft. today as modeled for 5PM today. Notice the crazy velocities at 18,000 feet.

The 7AM weather balloon today detected 30 knot winds at about 10,000 ft above Oakland. Those winds are modeled to descend this afternoon and shift from NNW to SW. I am watching the hilltop sensors carefully and so far there is barely a hint of those winds.

If they arrive as I expect it means that you may experience strong NW wind at the surface with a chance of random blasts from the SW that could descend near the surface. This would be a recipe for an accident.

The arrival of the strong winds aloft is so late in the afternoon that even an hour or two delay would turn this into a chicken little forecast.

From last night: If I am reading the data correctly a combo of an unseasonal strong North Pacific High and spiraling 105 mph NW winds aloft will cause wild and shifty conditions tomorrow.

Even if you normally just skip the blogs READ this one since we are looking at potentially dangerous winds tomorrow. Not so much because of their strength but because of the GUST and SHIFT factor:

http://blog.weatherflow.com/west-coast-wind-blog-extremely-gusty-shifty-nw-winds-clobber-the-bay-area/

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com



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Last edited by windfind on Sat Oct 03, 2015 7:02 pm; edited 7 times in total
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churan



Joined: 05 Mar 2008
Posts: 54

PostPosted: Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Word up mike. Thank you for the detailed warning. I will be packing the sailing gear instead.
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diannesf



Joined: 19 Apr 2005
Posts: 74
Location: San Francisco

PostPosted: Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mike!! Thank you so much for such a great forecast...the late session (5-6:45) at Crissy was epic! Super windy, big swell, fun!!! And yes, it was gusty, shifty, and all that, but still...super fun!!
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chand2



Joined: 14 May 1998
Posts: 58

PostPosted: Sun Oct 04, 2015 12:37 am    Post subject: Wind Today Reply with quote

We got hammered in a sailboat race today south of the Bay Bridge. The gusts were epic.
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tomg



Joined: 10 Apr 2000
Posts: 266

PostPosted: Sun Oct 04, 2015 10:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wind at TI to Blunt Point was all over the map. 230-530pm In a given spot the wind would rise to plus 30 (white knuckles on a 5.0) and then down to below 15 (barely planing). The patchiness of the wind was remarkable as you could see one person powered up just a few hundred yards away while you're sitting on glass. Thankfully it was not so much gusty as 'up and down' I would guess the variation is due to winds 'from aloft'?

Your forecast was spot on. We came mentally prepared for gusty winds - at least we had that in our quiver.
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airwave



Joined: 29 Jun 2000
Posts: 377

PostPosted: Sun Oct 04, 2015 11:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Swell turning into actual breaking waves at ... wait for it ...
Alameda ...
I've sailed bigger winds there but it was the biggest swell that I recall for an Alameda session.
Winds cam and went and came back and went again 4.0 - 5.5 depending on where you were and when you were ...
It was fabulous !!!
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jse



Joined: 17 Apr 1995
Posts: 1373
Location: Maui

PostPosted: Sun Oct 04, 2015 12:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tomales was 3.3 for me, 3.6 for twobluehawaiians. Upon arrival there was a major rescue operation in play with firetrucks, a jetski with a sled and a chopper rescuing a family clinging to a capsized sailboat. I felt comfortable sailing with them watching me but not after they left. Don't like having to unhook when I sail. So after a short session we left, blown off the water.

Steve
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PAmuddog



Joined: 29 Apr 2007
Posts: 144

PostPosted: Sun Oct 04, 2015 1:44 pm    Post subject: PA winds 10/3/15 Reply with quote

Four of us out at PA yesterday (4.0-5.0) from 3-4:30. Nice and gusty 15-30 Westerly when it dumped to ZERO. All made it back with a short swim. 30 minutes later two latecomers got blown off the water when it hit 35 for 35 minutes or so.

All in all a nice session.

Thanks Mike for the heads up on the quick ramp up! Very Happy Very Happy
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LoveSplittingLanes



Joined: 17 Jul 2004
Posts: 97
Location: Back in CA!

PostPosted: Sun Oct 04, 2015 4:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, it was an interesting day for sure!

Few of us braved the conditions at Flying Tigers/ Haskins. Interesting to read the sensors for SFO and Candlestick after the session. Very different read at the same time. Haskins was closer to the Candlestick read at around 4-5pm (big drop then) but then picked up violently around 6pm. Blown out of the water then... Epic!



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