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spennie
Joined: 13 Oct 1995 Posts: 975 Location: Thousand Oaks, CA
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Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2014 12:52 pm Post subject: El Nino |
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The NWS seems to agree that an El Nino is coming! Great news for the Left Coast, it means we'll get some rain, finally! From their website:
Next ENSO Update: July 10
NOAA's National Weather Service indicates El Niņo may develop as early as summer or fall 2014. Typical El Niņo impacts in the U.S. include above-average rainfall in the West and suppressed hurricane activity in the East, although neither is guaranteed and largely dependent on El Niņo's strength.
Not positive what this means wind-wise, but I'm thinking more storms = more wind, right?
_________________ Spennie the Wind Junkie
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jp5
Joined: 19 May 1998 Posts: 3394 Location: OnUr6
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Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2014 4:02 pm Post subject: |
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What I remember about the 97/98 El Nino was a lot of rain and really, really big surf. Typical storm winds of 12 gusting 40 making sailing difficult.
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gregorvass
Joined: 21 Nov 1996 Posts: 1113 Location: Behind You
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Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2014 4:53 pm Post subject: |
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El Nino Summary
Summer No Wind
Fall No Wind and Rain
Winter Some Wind and Rain
Spring Good Wind more F....rain.
Chocolate Water............great local snow.
Surf was all time 365.
P&O
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MrFish
Joined: 04 Sep 2009 Posts: 248
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Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2014 5:36 pm Post subject: |
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What I'm reading is that though it is probably still looking like an El Nino year, it is not looking like a very strong El Nino anymore, compared to 97/98 (the last one)
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allen
Joined: 13 Aug 1996 Posts: 237
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Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2014 5:43 pm Post subject: |
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I remember braking 3 masts at Cabrillo in '98 from March to July. I had just moved to LA and thought, wow, windsurfing was now going to be very expensive.
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spennie
Joined: 13 Oct 1995 Posts: 975 Location: Thousand Oaks, CA
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Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2014 7:31 pm Post subject: |
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Mr. Fish: They seem non-comittal at this point, and want to wait until October to really make a call. I'm just tossing it out there for discussion, and hoping like hell!
Here's a cool link to L.A. rainfall amounts starting in 1877! It wouldn't work for me in Explorer, had to switch to Chrome.
http://www.net-comber.com/larain.html
I recommend starting with "SEASON Total-descending" at the bottom and going on from there. Pretty interesting & fun! 2004-5 was the second rainiest season ever, with 1997-8's El Nino coming in 7th.
_________________ Spennie the Wind Junkie
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MalibuGuru
Joined: 11 Nov 1993 Posts: 9300
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Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2014 8:55 pm Post subject: |
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We had tremendous southern swell activity during the "El Nino" years. The photo Gregor posted showed the kind of surf we got back then. (on occasion) 17 years later, I'll be a little more careful!!
BTW, Gregor, those were the best sailing days here in So Cal.
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MrFish
Joined: 04 Sep 2009 Posts: 248
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Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2014 9:27 pm Post subject: |
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spennie wrote: | Mr. Fish: They seem non-comittal at this point, and want to wait until October to really make a call. I'm just tossing it out there for discussion, and hoping like hell!
Here's a cool link to L.A. rainfall amounts starting in 1877! It wouldn't work for me in Explorer, had to switch to Chrome.
http://www.net-comber.com/larain.html
I recommend starting with "SEASON Total-descending" at the bottom and going on from there. Pretty interesting & fun! 2004-5 was the second rainiest season ever, with 1997-8's El Nino coming in 7th. |
I think at this point there's no assurance there will be an El Nino either, they are now giving it 70% chance though.
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