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How to Forecast: Wind/weather @ PSC

 
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scameron



Joined: 18 Apr 1996
Posts: 19

PostPosted: Mon Mar 31, 2014 6:43 pm    Post subject: How to Forecast: Wind/weather @ PSC Reply with quote

Am sick of rain. Anybody got any idea of what been happening wind /weather wise @ San Carlos? Question
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ctuna



Joined: 27 Jun 1995
Posts: 529
Location: Santa Cruz Ca

PostPosted: Mon Mar 31, 2014 10:01 pm    Post subject: FYI Reply with quote

http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Punta-San-Carlos/forecasts/latest/six_day

http://www.windfinder.com/forecast/baja_california_punta_san_carlos
Got this in the email from solo

The season is really crackin' so we've added a new trip April 12-19 to satisfy a lot of requests. There is space
available but limited and on a first come, first served basis. So if you want to get a jump on your mates and get your
season started early - Call right away.

Come on and join us. This trip will end on the beginning of the Matt Pritchard Wavecamp. Hey!? What a great
idea - Why not 2 weeks? Call Kevin Trejo and ask what he can do to sweeten the pie. 949.289.7779.

Our season opener guests just got back raving about their trip - no wonder, THEY SCORED!
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dlyonnais



Joined: 10 Apr 2000
Posts: 4

PostPosted: Mon Mar 31, 2014 11:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

South swell Steve!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 817

PostPosted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 10:54 am    Post subject: How to forecast for San Carlos Baja Reply with quote

Hey Guys,

There are 2 problems for using the computer model forecast tables you see all over the web for isolated areas like PSC.

1. Often the models are fairly accurate for the North Pacific High wind. But none of the models for that area "see" the local thermal wind in the late spring & summer so you have to add a fudge factor to the models wind velocity.

2. The models break the world into small quadrants and forecast for the average wind in a quadrant. These quadrants can be as small as 1 km to as large as 30 km and all of the models quadrants for the San Carlos area are huge. So often a given launch site will be near the edge of a quadrant that mostly has weak wind so the modeled wind for the site is much lower than reality. Anytime you get a forecast by clicking on a point or looking at a table you run the risk of this type of error.

To avoid this error before making the long drive to San Carlos:

1. Look at a wind map and zoom in and out to see the modeled wind velocity in the overall area of the pacific west of San Carlos.

2. Look at 4-5 different models and check out what each one shows on its version of a wind map.

The images below show some of this data on windalert.com which is free for PSC. Notice how you can zoom out to see the wind approaching the whole Baja coast or zoom in to see the wind near Solo Sports camp site. And you can do this for many models.

You can also click on the map at PSC and out in the pacific nearby to get tables of wind data. Do this for each of the models you see in the red circle.

Then, in late spring & summer, you can get an idea of the unmodeled thermal wind by clicking on the option in WA to show "Satellite & Wind" look for a wedge of fog just north of PSC indicating thermal winds.

Doing all of this will get you a much more accurate forecast than just looking at a table showing a single model forecast on the web.

Have a great trip and remember that the campsite labeled "Mike's campsite" on the map is reserved.

Here is the link:

http://windalert.com/en-us/Search/ViewResults.aspx#29.981,-115.751,9,2
It may be necessary to click on the "Regional Products" and then "Forecast Maps"

Mike Godsey/iwindsurf.com



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Last edited by windfind on Tue Apr 01, 2014 8:00 pm; edited 1 time in total
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andrewc



Joined: 30 Jun 1997
Posts: 245

PostPosted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 3:02 pm    Post subject: Re: How to Forecast: Wind/weather @ PSC Reply with quote

scameron wrote:
Am sick of rain. Anybody got any idea of what been happening wind /weather wise @ San Carlos? Question


If the iWindSurf forecast says 15-20mph, that means it's 4.5. pack a 3.7 if you see any 'red'.
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berkeleyman



Joined: 05 Apr 2014
Posts: 2

PostPosted: Sat Apr 05, 2014 8:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was told that all you have to do is email the owner of the camp there and he will be happy to give you daily weather information and share his knowledge.

My friend told me his name is Kelvin Trejo and he is super nice, patient and very knowledgeable about weather.

I think the name of the business is Swallowsports (sp) and they have a website where there is contact info
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JamesHardy



Joined: 29 Mar 2002
Posts: 100

PostPosted: Sat Apr 05, 2014 1:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

berkeleyman wrote:
I was told that all you have to do is email the owner of the camp there and he will be happy to give you daily weather information and share his knowledge.

My friend told me his name is Kelvin Trejo and he is super nice, patient and very knowledgeable about weather.

I think the name of the business is Swallowsports (sp) and they have a website where there is contact info


Funny! April fools your just a couple of days late right?
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berkeleyman



Joined: 05 Apr 2014
Posts: 2

PostPosted: Tue Apr 08, 2014 2:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

it is called Solosports, not Swallowsports

my bad.
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