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Iran, and why I read George Will
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 5087

PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 5:24 pm    Post subject: Iran, and why I read George Will Reply with quote

KC has much to say about fake conservatives, and how they have taken over the Republican Party--with their agenda of stopping abortion, contraception, and using vaginal probes to put women in their place. But there are still those on the conservative side who can think, and write, effectively. From the Washington Post.

Quote:
The two options on Iran

By George F. Will, Published: December 4

Critics of the agreement with Iran concerning its nuclear program are right about most things but wrong about the most important things. They understand the agreement’s manifest and manifold defects and its probable futility. Crucial components of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure remain. U.S. concessions intended to cultivate the Iranian regime’s “moderates” are another version of the fatal conceit that U.S. policy can manipulate other societies. As is the hope that easing economic sanctions would create an Iranian constituency demanding nuclear retreat in exchange for yet more economic relief. Critics are, however, wrong in thinking that any agreement could control Iran’s nuclear aspirations. And what critics consider the agreement’s three worst consequences are actually benefits.

The six-month agreement, with ongoing negotiations, makes it impossible for the United States to attack its negotiating partner. Hence the agreement constrains Israel, which lacks the military capacity to be certain of a success commensurate with the risks of attacking Iran. Therefore there is no alternative to a policy of containment of a nuclear Iran.

Iran’s claim that its nuclear program is for power generation and medical uses is risible. So is the notion that negotiations have any likely utility establishing the predicate for containment of an Iran with nuclear weapons or with the capacity to produce them quickly.

There is a recently published primer for the perplexed: “Unthinkable: Iran, the Bomb, and American Strategy” by Kenneth M. Pollack of the Brookings Institution. Measured in his judgments, scrupulous in presenting arguments with which he disagrees, Pollack comes to this conclusion: “Going to war with Iran to try to prevent it from obtaining a nuclear arsenal would be a worse course of action than containing Iran, even a nuclear Iran.”

Some advocates of war seem gripped by Thirties Envy, a longing for the clarity of the 1930s, when appeasement failed to slake the dictators’ thirst for territorial expansion. But the incantation “Appeasement!” is not an argument. And the word “appeasement” does not usefully describe a sober decision that war is an imprudent and even ultimately ineffective response to the failure of diplomatic and economic pressures to alter a regime’s choices about policies within its borders.

Israel’s superb air force is too small, when striking over great distances at hidden and hardened targets, to do more than set back Iran’s program a few years, at most. And an attack might cause Iran to expel the international inspectors or accelerate the crumbling of the sanctions, thereby speeding the reconstitution of the weapons program.

A U.S. attack could do much more damage but could not prevent reconstitution. So, if stopping the program is important enough for war, is it important enough for an invasion of a nation with almost three times the population of Iraq and nearly four times the size?

In December 2011, Leon Panetta, then secretary of defense, said that if Iran were seen “proceeding with developing a nuclear weapon” or had decided to do that, the United States would “take whatever steps are necessary to stop it.” In March 2012, Barack Obama said: “Iran’s leaders should understand that I do not have a policy of containment; I have a policy to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.” His “red line” was the weaponization of fissile material.

Yet in his Nov. 23 statement celebrating the new agreement, Obama spoke of wanting to be able to “verify” that Iran “cannot build a nuclear weapon.” If so, he rejects not only containment but allowing Iran to stop near — “a screwdriver’s turn away from” — weaponization. But Pollack, writing many months before the recent agreement ratified Iran’s right to enrichment, said:

“As long as Iran is left with the capacity to enrich uranium, the right to perform some enrichment activity, and a stockpile of LEU (low-enriched uranium) . . . then Iran will have a breakout capability. It could be a breakout window as wide as many months, perhaps even a year, but Iran will have the capability to manufacture the fissile material for a nuclear weapon.”


The agreement will not stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons; only a highly unlikely Iranian choice can do that. The agreement may, however, prevent a war to prevent Iran from acquiring such weapons. If Pollack is right, and he certainly is persuasive, we have two choices, war or containment. Those who prefer the former have an obligation to clearly say why its consequences would be more predictable and less dire than those in the disastrous war with Iraq.


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nw30



Joined: 21 Dec 2008
Posts: 1614
Location: The eye of the universe, Cen. Cal. coast

PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 7:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, I really like George Will as well, here's another great read~

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/george-will-obamas-presidency-unravels-through-chaos-and-crisis/2013/11/22/57132e74-52de-11e3-a7f0-b790929232e1_story.html

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I don't drink the 'cool' aid, I drink tequila, it's more honest.
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 5087

PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 8:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not surprised that NW would get his panties wet about anything negative about Obama. Here's a prediction for you. Obama will overcome his mistakes, for two reasons. First, roll out of new programs is never neat. Second, Republicans have no ideas--and very little political skill beyond bashing Obama.

See it here in repeated Fox talking points`.
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stevenbard



Joined: 11 Nov 1993
Posts: 4016

PostPosted: Fri Dec 06, 2013 12:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

They have plenty of ideas and proposals. They are promoted by the press.
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beaglebuddy



Joined: 10 Feb 2012
Posts: 685

PostPosted: Fri Dec 06, 2013 12:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is how I see it Crying or Very sad
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pueno



Joined: 03 Mar 2007
Posts: 2619

PostPosted: Fri Dec 06, 2013 5:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

stevenbard wrote:
They have plenty of ideas and proposals. They are promoted by the press.

You're right.

Romneycare, for example, was a republican idea.

Oops, I meant Obamacare.
.
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boggsman1



Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 3509
Location: at a computer

PostPosted: Fri Dec 06, 2013 10:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Highest Consumer confidence since July 2007
Lowest unemployment #(7%) since the slide
Market en fuego
Real Estate en fuego
Labor particicpation rate increasing
In -n-out burger flippers making 10.50 an hour
Biotech having its best run EVER
NorCal tech absolutely screaming...res.real estate in valley 1200/ft
Stay negative rightys....it suits you just fine.
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stevenbard



Joined: 11 Nov 1993
Posts: 4016

PostPosted: Fri Dec 06, 2013 10:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sex with hooker may be the best sex you ever have, but this doesn't make it right. When condom breaks, or when the Fed stops QE, the sores will begin to fester... Confucius.

PS Boggs, I still have former workers calling me willing to work for half of their previous wage. And the laughable McDonalds protests. Who is going to pay for the cost of raising minimum to $15? The poorest of the poor who eat at McD's. Inflation hasn't even begun according to our fed.
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boggsman1



Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 3509
Location: at a computer

PostPosted: Fri Dec 06, 2013 11:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Steve...I dont know what type of business you run, but my guess is your former workers dont have advanced skills, neither do the McD workers. But, the reason I referenced In-n-Out is that they pay their workers 50-60% more than McD's, why, becuase they have a better product, better service, and an overall better experience, which equates to higher margins. This economy has a shortage of skilled workers, in the oil fields of Texas, in Silicon Valley, in the medical profession, in many areas of engineering. This economy has a GLUT of unskilled workers, while the world economy moves forward....did you see 60 minutes last week? I wouldnt want to be a UPS driver in 5 years.
BTW-Im sick of the doomsayers yacking about QE and the FED...its the card we were dealt, and I'm playing it....as many others as well.
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keycocker



Joined: 10 Jul 2005
Posts: 3313

PostPosted: Fri Dec 06, 2013 12:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am doing better financially now than ever in my life.
My workers want 50% more money.
My ins. was improved recently for small money.
Construction and the economy is booming in Maui.
Things have been improving steady for us for years, while I have been reading five years about the imminent collapse right around the corner.
This fake out has had conservatives literally loving in bunkers since O first term.
Imagine how dumb their friends must find them tp be,
Perhaps some of you guys should get a bunker.
Collapse is imminent. Stock up on beans.
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