myiW Current Conditions and Forecasts Community Forums Buy and Sell Services
 
Hi guest · myAccount · Log in
 SearchSearch   ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   RegisterRegister 
Syria

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    iWindsurf Community Forum Index -> Politics, Off-Topic, Opinions
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 10137
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 1:16 pm    Post subject: Syria Reply with quote

Interesting. By Mrc. A Thiessen

Quote:
In 2013, after Syrian dictator Bashar Assad crossed President Obama's red line and used chemical weapons on innocent civilians, a U.S. official told the Los Angeles Times that Obama's retaliatory strike would likely be "just muscular enough not to get mocked" but not so devastating that it would elicit a response from Iran and Russia. In the end, Obama backed away from even such a small, feckless strike.

On Friday, Trump carried one out.

Trump deserves credit for acting (now twice) when Obama wouldn't. He also deserves credit for getting U.S. allies to join us when Obama couldn't. But let's be clear: Friday night's strikes were "just muscular enough not to get mocked." As a result, they did more damage to the United States' credibility on the world stage than they did to the Assad regime.

The U.S.-led strike did not hit a single airplane, airfield or delivery system, and it left Syria with chemical weapons capabilities. Even at the sites we did hit, the Syrians had plenty of time to move equipment and chemical stockpiles. There were no reported casualties on the ground, suggesting that the regime had evacuated the targets.

The Syrians know that they won. The Washington Post reports that "on the streets of Damascus, there was jubilation as government supporters realized that a more expansive assault would not materialize." Retired Gen. Jack Keane, former vice chief of staff of the Army, said the Syrians had good reason to celebrate. "The response is very weak in my judgment," he said. "It should have been decisive, it should have been consequential," he continued.

Keane said Assad made a bet with his chemical attack and won. As Keane explained, Assad wanted to take out one of the last remaining rebel strongholds in the Damascus suburb of eastern Ghouta, which was holding out despite a brutal, nonstop bombing campaign by the Russians. Assad calculated that he could use chemical weapons to crush the resistance, achieve a military victory and then absorb what he expected to be a limited U.S. strike. So, he launched his chemical strike. Hours later, the rebels capitulated. And just as Assad predicted, the U.S. response was limited -- leaving his air power, his command-and-control, and his chemical weapons capability largely intact. Assad was not punished. Quite the opposite -- his attack played out just as he had hoped and predicted. Mission accomplished.


Far from being chastened, the U.S. response will embolden Assad, Russia and Iran. And it will embolden other U.S. adversaries as well.


What lesson did North Korea likely take from Trump's weak actions in Syria? That the Trump administration is easily intimidated and risk-averse. The reason we didn't take out all of Assad's chemical weapons capability is that we were intimidated by Russia. Instead of warning the Russians to evacuate, and telling them we would not be responsible for what happened to their personnel if they failed to do so, we specifically designed our strikes to avoid even the remote possibility of provoking Moscow.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un understands this. And the lesson he takes is that if Trump won't take out Syrian airfields because we're afraid of Russia's response, then he's definitely not going to strike Kim's nuclear and ballistic missile program and risk a North Korean artillery barrage on Seoul.

This is a major setback to the Trump administration's efforts to stop North Korea from developing the capability to threaten U.S. cities with nuclear missiles. The only way the United States can persuade North Korea to peacefully give up its pursuit of these weapons is if Kim believes Trump's threat of military force is credible. After Friday's U.S. actions in Syria, our credibility has been weakened, not enhanced.

News reports indicate that Trump wanted a more robust response but faced resistance from Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, the same man who has resisted giving Trump robust military options for North Korea. If accurate, Mattis did the president a great disservice by scaling down his desired Syrian response. The president's desire is to project strength on the world stage. Under Mattis' apparent guidance, he did the opposite.

As a result, Trump is weakened going into his summit with Kim. If Trump had taken no action, it would have been worse -- but not by much. Because when you carry out strikes "just muscular enough not to get mocked," you are projecting weakness -- and weakness is provocative.


Read more at http://www.jewishworldreview.com/0418/thiessen041718.php3#oDJME8qXicZ5kaJT.99


Lost in the shuffle is that Obama believed that attacking Syria was beyond his authority under the then-existing authorization of military power resolution. Trump agreed, and Congress refused to authorize a raid. Now Obama is characterized as weak--not as law abiding. While Trump has changed his tune and his contempt for law is palpable.

Thiessen is a Republican and a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. It is hard to get more conservative than that.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
mat-ty



Joined: 07 Jul 2007
Posts: 3540

PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:17 pm    Post subject: Re: Syria Reply with quote

mac wrote:
Interesting. By Mrc. A Thiessen

Quote:
In 2013, after Syrian dictator Bashar Assad crossed President Obama's red line and used chemical weapons on innocent civilians, a U.S. official told the Los Angeles Times that Obama's retaliatory strike would likely be "just muscular enough not to get mocked" but not so devastating that it would elicit a response from Iran and Russia. In the end, Obama backed away from even such a small, feckless strike.

On Friday, Trump carried one out.

Trump deserves credit for acting (now twice) when Obama wouldn't. He also deserves credit for getting U.S. allies to join us when Obama couldn't. But let's be clear: Friday night's strikes were "just muscular enough not to get mocked." As a result, they did more damage to the United States' credibility on the world stage than they did to the Assad regime.

The U.S.-led strike did not hit a single airplane, airfield or delivery system, and it left Syria with chemical weapons capabilities. Even at the sites we did hit, the Syrians had plenty of time to move equipment and chemical stockpiles. There were no reported casualties on the ground, suggesting that the regime had evacuated the targets.

The Syrians know that they won. The Washington Post reports that "on the streets of Damascus, there was jubilation as government supporters realized that a more expansive assault would not materialize." Retired Gen. Jack Keane, former vice chief of staff of the Army, said the Syrians had good reason to celebrate. "The response is very weak in my judgment," he said. "It should have been decisive, it should have been consequential," he continued.

Keane said Assad made a bet with his chemical attack and won. As Keane explained, Assad wanted to take out one of the last remaining rebel strongholds in the Damascus suburb of eastern Ghouta, which was holding out despite a brutal, nonstop bombing campaign by the Russians. Assad calculated that he could use chemical weapons to crush the resistance, achieve a military victory and then absorb what he expected to be a limited U.S. strike. So, he launched his chemical strike. Hours later, the rebels capitulated. And just as Assad predicted, the U.S. response was limited -- leaving his air power, his command-and-control, and his chemical weapons capability largely intact. Assad was not punished. Quite the opposite -- his attack played out just as he had hoped and predicted. Mission accomplished.


Far from being chastened, the U.S. response will embolden Assad, Russia and Iran. And it will embolden other U.S. adversaries as well.


What lesson did North Korea likely take from Trump's weak actions in Syria? That the Trump administration is easily intimidated and risk-averse. The reason we didn't take out all of Assad's chemical weapons capability is that we were intimidated by Russia. Instead of warning the Russians to evacuate, and telling them we would not be responsible for what happened to their personnel if they failed to do so, we specifically designed our strikes to avoid even the remote possibility of provoking Moscow.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un understands this. And the lesson he takes is that if Trump won't take out Syrian airfields because we're afraid of Russia's response, then he's definitely not going to strike Kim's nuclear and ballistic missile program and risk a North Korean artillery barrage on Seoul.

This is a major setback to the Trump administration's efforts to stop North Korea from developing the capability to threaten U.S. cities with nuclear missiles. The only way the United States can persuade North Korea to peacefully give up its pursuit of these weapons is if Kim believes Trump's threat of military force is credible. After Friday's U.S. actions in Syria, our credibility has been weakened, not enhanced.

News reports indicate that Trump wanted a more robust response but faced resistance from Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, the same man who has resisted giving Trump robust military options for North Korea. If accurate, Mattis did the president a great disservice by scaling down his desired Syrian response. The president's desire is to project strength on the world stage. Under Mattis' apparent guidance, he did the opposite.

As a result, Trump is weakened going into his summit with Kim. If Trump had taken no action, it would have been worse -- but not by much. Because when you carry out strikes "just muscular enough not to get mocked," you are projecting weakness -- and weakness is provocative.


Read more at http://www.jewishworldreview.com/0418/thiessen041718.php3#oDJME8qXicZ5kaJT.99


Lost in the shuffle is that Obama believed that attacking Syria was beyond his authority under the then-existing authorization of military power resolution. Trump agreed, and Congress refused to authorize a raid. Now Obama is characterized as weak--not as law abiding. While Trump has changed his tune and his contempt for law is palpable.

Thiessen is a Republican and a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. It is hard to get more conservative than that.



So when Obama was talking about a RED LINE he was basically doing what he did best, talking?

I guess the Brits and France are morons also?.

And for the record....Obama was weak, very weak.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 10137
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I guess Matty didn’t read the piece. Too long. I’ll break it down. Trump gave the Russians and Assad plenty of warning to get out of the way. The attack didn’t affect any aircraft, or eliminate the capacity for chemical weapons manufacture and delivery. And then Trump called Russia on a back channel to say don’t worry about sanctions. A little theater to make Matty drool—and no harm to the Russian oligarch’s carving up Syria. Can you spell treason?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jpbassman



Joined: 19 May 1998
Posts: 3307
Location: Leo

PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This calls for Wing Attack Plan R. You boys all know your jobs. Let's get'er done.
_________________
#Arrest44
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
MalibuGuru



Joined: 11 Nov 1993
Posts: 7130

PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mac wrote:
I guess Matty didn’t read the piece. Too long. I’ll break it down. Trump gave the Russians and Assad plenty of warning to get out of the way. The attack didn’t affect any aircraft, or eliminate the capacity for chemical weapons manufacture and delivery. And then Trump called Russia on a back channel to say don’t worry about sanctions. A little theater to make Matty drool—and no harm to the Russian oligarch’s carving up Syria. Can you spell treason?


Only idiots want to risk war with a nuclear power.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 10137
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The only consistent thing about the looney right is they will twist and turn and change their story however they need to to support an authoritarian demogogue like Trump. Mussolini lite.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 10137
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It is pretty clear that neither Matty nor Malibu have read anything deeper than Trump tweets about Syria. Initially, I wasn't sure what to think, and I waited for a few facts to drift in. I started this thread with a post by a conservative critique about the latest raids as symbolic only. Now I've read a piece by George Packer in the latest New Yorker that makes it clear that Trump's raids on Syria were feckless and ineffective.

Let's return to the meme that Obama was weak by drawing a red line in Syria and then not following through. This ignores the facts that Obama directed the US military to develop a plan to destroy Assad's rather small air force. His advisors did not agree with the attack, and neither Congress nor the European and Arab world allies would support it, so Obama never went through with the raids. It is a vivid example of the double standard that the right employs against Obama--when he maximizes the use of Presidential authority he is depicted as dictatorial, and when he recognizes Congressional authority over war making (a point tweeted by Trump at the time) he is weak. I believe that Obama was always more interested in results than symbols.

The day after Trump's raid on a Syrian air base in response to the use of sarin at Khan Sheidhoun, Syrian planes took off from that base and bombed more civilians. The shot across the bow was meaningless, except as a symbolic sop to Trumpists. Human Rights Watch has documented more than fifty attacks; here's a snippet from their web site:

Quote:
(Beirut) – International efforts to deter chemical attacks in Syria in the year since the devastating sarin attack on Khan Sheikhoun on April 4, 2017, have been ineffective, Human Rights Watch said today. Human Rights Watch has collated and analyzed evidence of chemical weapons attacks in Syria between August 21, 2013, the day of the deadliest chemical weapon attack in Syria to date, and February 25, 2018, when the Syrian government used chlorine in the besieged enclave of Eastern Ghouta.

The information, based on data from seven sources, shows that the Syrian government is responsible for the majority of 85 confirmed chemical weapon attacks. The data also show that the Syrian government has been largely undeterred by the efforts of the United Nations Security Council, the international Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), and unilateral action by individual countries to enforce the prohibition on Syria’s use of chemical weapons.

“In Syria, the government is using chemical weapons that are banned the world over without paying any price,” said Lama Fakih, deputy Middle East director at Human Rights Watch. “One year after the horrific sarin attack on Khan Sheikhoun, neither the UN Security Council nor the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons has acted to uphold the prohibition against chemical weapon attacks.”


To be sure, Assad has also used barrel bombs and other weapons without concern for civilian casualties without being deterred, and has been supported by both Russia and Iran. His clear message to rebels is that he will stop at nothing to retain power.

Now I don't really know that there is anything effective that the US could do short of a massive bombing campaign that would result in even greater civilian casualties, or boots on the ground and further entanglement in the Middle East.

My objection here is to hollow, symbolic gestures without a coherent strategy that makes either geopolitical or humanitarian sense. Not to mention the blind followship of folks like Matty and Bard.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
nw30



Joined: 21 Dec 2008
Posts: 4535
Location: The eye of the universe, Cen. Cal. coast

PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mac: "Now I don't really know that there is anything effective that the US could do short of a massive bombing campaign that would result in even greater civilian casualties, or boots on the ground and further entanglement in the Middle East.

My objection here is to hollow, symbolic gestures without a coherent strategy that makes either geopolitical or humanitarian sense."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Boy you got that right, you're here to bitch and complain w/o any ideas of your own as to how you think it should be handled.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 10137
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

NW--thank you for your insightful addition to the discussion. I'm in awe.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    iWindsurf Community Forum Index -> Politics, Off-Topic, Opinions All times are GMT - 5 Hours
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You cannot download files in this forum

myiW | Weather | Community | Membership | Support | Log in
like us on facebook
© Copyright 1999-2007 WeatherFlow, Inc Contact Us Ad Marketplace

Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group