myiW Current Conditions and Forecasts Community Forums Windsurfing Videos Buy and Sell Services
 
Hi guest · myAccount · Log in
 SearchSearch   ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   RegisterRegister 
Can we get a SoCal backcast for Sunday Sept 15?

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    iWindsurf Community Forum Index -> Southwest USA, Hawaii, Mexico
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
allen



Joined: 13 Aug 1996
Posts: 219

PostPosted: Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:41 pm    Post subject: Can we get a SoCal backcast for Sunday Sept 15? Reply with quote

Lots of wind at Cabrillo and Leo yesterday despite a so-so forecast. Can you backcast for us Mike?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 809

PostPosted: Tue Sep 17, 2013 1:25 pm    Post subject: Re: Can we get a SoCal backcast for Sunday Sept 15? Reply with quote

allen wrote:
Lots of wind at Cabrillo and Leo yesterday despite a so-so forecast. Can you backcast for us Mike?


Hi Allen,

I lowered the Cabrillo and Leo forecasts Sunday from solid upper teens to mid to weak upper teens for 2 reasons:

1. There was a faint Catalina Eddy that was dying fast over the outer waters at 11:30 AM and I thought that it would weaken the arrival of the NW winds curving into the beaches taking 1-2 knots off the local sea breezes. That did not happen.

2. It looked like the NW wind would give the WSW local sea breezes a W to NW cant that would make both Cabrillo and Leo a bit weak inside compared to the sensor reading. I am not sure that happened.

Hope this helps some. I always appreciate feedback. Mail me at mike@iwindsurf.com

Mike Godsey


Last edited by windfind on Tue Sep 17, 2013 4:35 pm; edited 1 time in total
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
cbknap



Joined: 03 Jun 1997
Posts: 300

PostPosted: Tue Sep 17, 2013 2:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And again Monday Cabrillo went off in a manner not forecast. 99 degrees in Monrovia and other inland valleys and 67 degrees at the beach, coupled with a strong west to northwest flow down the coast = average wind readings of 25 mph. Of course we all know the average calculated by the meter is way off but call the low reading close to the actual average and it was still 22 g 32 west at 264 degrees. Average for Kanaha; epic for Cabrillo!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 809

PostPosted: Tue Sep 17, 2013 4:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
And again Monday Cabrillo went off in a manner not forecast


But I was not forecasting yesterday (Monday)..... I try not to get burned twice by the same event so I would probably have caught the wind in if I was forecasting.

Mike
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
cbknap



Joined: 03 Jun 1997
Posts: 300

PostPosted: Tue Sep 17, 2013 5:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Don't worry Mike no one is blaming you or any forecaster. (At least I'm not). The forecast is worth more than we pay for it!

At Cabrillo the difference between lackluster wind of 16 with huge holes and blasting wind in the solid 20s is fairly difficult to predict, and can vary considerably day to day.

Here's a couple of observations from this summer:

--Monsoonal set-up with towering cumulus clouds at the base of the mountains (over inland OC) have tended to supercharge the winds at Cabrillo from 1 pm up until 4 pm.

--Cold at the beach=good. If you are sweating while you are rigging you'd better be rigging big.

--Heat differential matters. It can be 95 degrees on the Vincent Thomas Bridge and still be 65 and blasting at Cabrillo. Once the heat gets to the Cabrillo Marina its only a matter of minutes until the wind dies.

--Forecast data matters. The AccuWeather report in the LA Times is the worst weather data I have ever seen: Their predicted city by city highs are routinely wrong by 10 to 15 degrees; their report on actual conditions at nearly every beach is wildly incorrect. It can be 20g32 at 4 pm at Cabrillo and they will report the next day that Cabrillo was WSW
@ 6 mph at 4 pm. It's been wrong for years. No one seems to care.

Make your best guess, stuff your car with everything that fits, and man (or woman) up.

Here's the only predictable part: Big holes. Big gusts. Lotsa weed.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
westadamsvets



Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 54

PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 6:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Somewhat related Cabrillo question:

Any info on the camera at the lifeguard station:
http://www.watchthewater.org/beach.cfm?bid=17

Any hope of that working again? It used to be a nice way to see how crowded the beach is and if people were rigging up.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    iWindsurf Community Forum Index -> Southwest USA, Hawaii, Mexico All times are GMT - 5 Hours
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You can attach files in this forum
You can download files in this forum

myiW | Weather | Community | Membership | Support | Log in
like us on facebook
© Copyright 1999-2007 WeatherFlow, Inc Contact Us Ad Marketplace

Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group