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Honesty in Forecasting

 
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dennis_c



Joined: 05 May 1998
Posts: 641
Location: Rio

PostPosted: Sat Jul 20, 2013 10:07 am    Post subject: Honesty in Forecasting Reply with quote

"7AM UPDATE:
Sherman Island: Morning upper teens for Marker 10, weaker toward Marker 14."

Thank you, Benjamin Miller, for acknowledging that Markers 10 (Kitopia) and 14 (The Sign) are in two separate areas. (Sherman Island has recently been a near "can't miss" forecast because of this.) Each anemometer really deserves its own bar graph in the forecast area of the website. Perhaps they should be renamed as well, for clarity.
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airwave



Joined: 29 Jun 2000
Posts: 270

PostPosted: Sat Jul 20, 2013 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A minor detail on this.

Mark 5-6 is Kitopia. Then 7-8, then 9-10. And yep they are way different as is 11-12 from 13-14. Often the Access and the Park are windier than the rest. Sometime not. Especially when there is a W- NW slant to things.

We really need 11-12 back on-line as it is where most of the sailing kiting takes place.

But thankfully there are a couple of homemade meters at the County Park that are good indicators, as long as you are on site, and can't tell by looking at the water or standing still on the beach.
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noshuzbluz



Joined: 18 May 2000
Posts: 771

PostPosted: Sat Jul 20, 2013 11:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Almost every time I go to the Access I make it a point to check the M10 readings against the reading on my Windtronics meter and it's almost dead on every time
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dennis_c



Joined: 05 May 1998
Posts: 641
Location: Rio

PostPosted: Sat Jul 20, 2013 12:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I used to take wind readings at the Access and found they were often only loosely related to the wind in the channel by Marker 12. (This was before they moved the anemometer to Marker 12 to improve the accuracy.) Looking at the reading for Marker 10 right now, it is 20 WNW. And yes, you will probably be able to duplicate that on the beach. However, the hills will block some of that wind out in the channel, unless you sail upwind toward 10.
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dennis_c



Joined: 05 May 1998
Posts: 641
Location: Rio

PostPosted: Sat Jul 20, 2013 12:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

airwave wrote:


Mark 5-6 is Kitopia. Then 7-8, then 9-10. And yep they are way different as is 11-12 from 13-14. Often the Access and the Park are windier than the rest. Sometime not. Especially when there is a W- NW slant to things.

Point taken. I don't care what there are called (and there is precedent for a name change: Anita Rock) but a separate forecast would be nice. The present situation is sort of like combining Berkeley with Point Isabel.
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spennie



Joined: 13 Oct 1995
Posts: 791
Location: Thousand Oaks, CA

PostPosted: Mon Jul 22, 2013 1:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Relating to this post, but indirectly: When wind hits the levee, it's lifted by the shape, which compresses it & speeds it up a bit. Go look up "airfoil" somewhere if you're not clear on this, look at the top of the foil. If you take a reading from the top of the levee it's going to be slightly higher than the actual wind, although I have no idea how much. Maybe one of the engineer-types who haunt the Forum can give us an idea.

P.S. The reading for Marker 10 is accurate for the Park.

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dennis_c



Joined: 05 May 1998
Posts: 641
Location: Rio

PostPosted: Mon Jul 22, 2013 8:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

spennie wrote:

P.S. The reading for Marker 10 is accurate for the Park.

Wow, wrong twice in one day.
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victor



Joined: 03 Aug 1998
Posts: 543

PostPosted: Mon Jul 22, 2013 8:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

what about today's forecast for everywhere?
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