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Question on SoCal Forecast

 
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allen



Joined: 13 Aug 1996
Posts: 219

PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 2:00 pm    Post subject: Question on SoCal Forecast Reply with quote

"11:30AM UPDATE: No real changes to the AM forecast; the eddy seems to have fizzled so once the marine layer clears look for some modest PM sea breezes, tapping mid teens or so. "

Per above, the 11:30 AM update says the eddy has fizzled yet at 11:40 AM the Point Vicente sensor is showing SE winds averaging 18 while the Torrance Airport sensor is showing SE winds of 12 mph. Wouldn't that indicate a pretty significant eddy or am I missing something?
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 792

PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 2:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Allen,

I am not forecasting today but unless I am on the water I still keep track of Southern California off and on. At 7AM the Catalina Eddy spanned the waters from Tijuana almost to Leo.

By 11:30 AM the eddy had died at all points south of San Clemente so it is clearly shrinking fast. So I guess you would more correctly say in is fizzling ranter than fizzled.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com
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estherjibe



Joined: 18 Apr 2011
Posts: 5

PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 3:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Idon't think that there is any eddy at all. An eddy forms due to a northwest flow over the coastal waters, if any of you looked at the moving satellite images for the last 48 hours, you would see that the southeast flow that we are under is due to the giant high pressure system over Nevada. Until it moves east Cabrillo will not blow.
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 792

PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 8:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Esterjibe,

You are right. The SE flowing clouds you see in the satellite imagery are created by the huge upper level high pressure covering much of the western USA. However those SE winds are over 10,000 aloft and are not impacting the Southern California surface wind in any way. It is easy to forget that the atmosphere is 3D and as you look at the satellite imagery your are seeing clouds from 30,000 feet to the surface crushed on a flat computer screen


Notice that the surface winds this afternoon at Cabrillo reached the mid teens WSW which is almost 180 degrees opposite of the SE winds upper level winds you mentioned.

You are right about the NW ocean winds playing a role in the Catalina Eddy. But what really makes the Catalina Eddy is the flow of that NW wind over the Traverse Range north of Santa Barbara. As that wind slides down the Traverse range in the early AM it compresses, heats and creates a low pressure area south of Santa Barbara. This low pressure causes the NW wind to curve into the Southern California bight and turn into an eddy. The reason the eddy dies is that the NW wind curves around until it ends up near Santa Barbara and fills up the low pressure.

But you can see why people assume the NW wind causes the eddy since it forms the low pressure that actually causes the Catalina Eddy.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com
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mrkhm



Joined: 04 Apr 2001
Posts: 14

PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 10:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Any thoughts on why Silver Strand went off Sunday with 5.0s on the water. It was through the roof by San Diego summer standards.
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