Gun Nuts

mac · Posted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 11:25 am Post subject:

One of the common misunderstandings of people who aren't good with numbers is to lump very different phenomena together. Any legitimate analytical effort teases out different populations and treats them differently statistically. That can and should be done with gun violence, and we should not lose sight of the fact that we can make progress, and should not let perfect be the enemy of good.

The population of incidents associated with the drug trade are very different than the population of incidents associated with accidents, domestic violence, and terrorism. We should call political attacks, whether by those with a leftist ideology or those with a right wing ideology acts of terrorism.

Unfortunately, Republicans in Congress under the sway of the NRA and gun nuts have forbidden collection of systematic data on the number and causes of gun violence. With 40,000 deaths a year, and a long term record, there is plenty of potential data that could be analyzed to ascertain causes. Without a government sponsored effort that has credibility, we are left with analyses from organizations like the NRA and the SPLC that have axes to grind and look at the data with a particular bias. Since the left doesn't trust right-wing sources, and the right doesn't trust left-wing sources, we shout at each other without listening.

Local newspapers do print analyses of killings in Oakland and in surrounding cities. I also hear the stories of the more amazing assaults from my son-in-law, including dealers surviving shooting and going back to the street. In Oakland in 2018 there were 68 murders--the lowest level since 1999. (Contrary to claims by Trump, crime and particularly violent crime has been falling for decades, and is lower in cities with high numbers of immigrants.) Most of the violence that my son-on-law sees as an Oakland cop is associated with the drug trade--competition for turf, pay-back for rip-offs, armed robberies (even now of legal grows), and revenge. Berkeley's murders are much rarer, and most seem to be associated with gangs and drugs. Richmond was able to decrease the rate of murder dramatically with a number of measures including community policing.

I would imagine that the same sad story is true in most urban cities with a large group of poor people that see little hope for economic advancement outside of selling drugs.

https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/246404.pdf

boggsman1 · Joined: 24 Jun 2002 Posts: 9120 Location: at a computer

nw30 · Posted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 12:03 pm Post subject:

59 people shot in Chicago this last weekend,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, crickets.
Chicago doesn't count due to political reasons.

boggsman1 · Joined: 24 Jun 2002 Posts: 9120 Location: at a computer

mat-ty · Joined: 07 Jul 2007 Posts: 7850

mat-ty · Joined: 07 Jul 2007 Posts: 7850

nw30 · Posted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 1:14 pm Post subject:

boggsman1 · Joined: 24 Jun 2002 Posts: 9120 Location: at a computer

vientomas · Joined: 25 Apr 2000 Posts: 2343