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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 14322

PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 6:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

All time market high, says Wall Street.
BS, say economists.
The all time high, adjusted for inflation, was in Jan 14, 2000; the rest is hot air and play money. In real money it's down 10% since then, says NYU Stern School of Business financial history professor Richard Sylla.

Yet the Left just keep marching to the beat of its Drum Major In Chief:
Left, Left, Left, Left, Left, Left ...

Buy farm land and bury your gold in it.
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boggsman1



Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 3615
Location: at a computer

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 9:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ISO...should I give back the dough I've made in the past 4 years?
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jpbassking



Joined: 19 May 1998
Posts: 2386
Location: Leo

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 10:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

boggsman1 wrote:
ISO...should I give back the dough I've made in the past 4 years?


Not me man, I'm keeping it. Jobless rate also lowest in 4 years. I suppose those numbers are made up too?

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keycocker



Joined: 10 Jul 2005
Posts: 3463

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 10:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

My real estate biz in Belize is doing better than it has for twenty years.
I am looking for a good deal on a bigger house in Maui and there are twenty bids on every one so I am having no luck even though I always make offers that are more than the asking price.
Even my worthless brother in law found a job.
Gold is in the crapper again. Only fools bought it lately.
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 14322

PostPosted: Fri Mar 15, 2013 8:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

From http://tinyurl.com/dx8fyh7 :
Billionaires Dumping Stocks, Economist Knows Why
Wednesday, 06 Feb 2013

Despite the 6.5% stock market rally over the last three months, a handful of billionaires are quietly dumping their American stocks . . . and fast.
Warren Buffett ... is dumping shares at an alarming rate ... drastically reducing his exposure to stocks that depend on consumer purchasing ...
Fellow billionaire John Paulson ... dumped 14 million shares of JPMorgan Chase and its entire position in discount retailer Family Dollar and consumer-goods maker Sara Lee.
George Soros recently sold nearly all of his bank stocks ... more than a million shares.

So why are these billionaires dumping their shares of U.S. companies?
It’s very likely that these professional investors are aware of specific research that points toward a massive market correction, as much as ... worst case ... 90%.
One such person publishing this research is Robert Wiedemer, an esteemed economist and author of the New York Times best-selling book "Aftershock".

In 2006, Wiedemer and a team of economists accurately predicted the collapse of the U.S. housing market, equity markets, and consumer spending that almost sank the United States. They published their research ... accurately predicting what many thought would never happen, and quickly established Wiedemer as a trusted voice.
A columnist at Dow Jones said the book was “one of those rare finds that not only predicted the subprime credit meltdown well in advance, it offered Main Street investors a winning strategy that helped avoid the forty percent losses that followed . . .”
The chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor’s said that Wiedemer’s track record “demands our attention.”
The former CFO of Goldman Sachs said Wiedemer’s “prescience in (his) first book lends credence to the new warnings. This book deserves our attention.”

[This correction] starts with the reckless strategy ... stimulus printing and spending ... leading to massive inflation ... then new real estate and stock market collapses ...

And on and on it goes. Ignore it at your own peril.
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DanWeiss



Joined: 24 Jun 2008
Posts: 1961
Location: Connecticut, USA

PostPosted: Sat Mar 16, 2013 3:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nothing like current analysis, Mr. Ficktion
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slinky



Joined: 24 Aug 2007
Posts: 429
Location: Old Saybrook Ct.

PostPosted: Sat Mar 16, 2013 4:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm wondering if our major economic problem won't be like Japan's? Japan has had deficits double ours for over a decade. Yes that's right ! More than double relative to GDP. Yet Japan has been faced with dealing with deflation of their economy. Perhaps we could suffer a similar fate? I've not heard much if anything about this potential. Is it possible?
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 14322

PostPosted: Sat Mar 16, 2013 6:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've read 15-20 extremely heavily documented and referenced books and many scores of financial newspaper and journal articles, written by experts with very to extremely credible track records, based on a wide variety of analysis tools and methods, independent of politics, all forecasting the next decade or more to be worse, much worse, or EXTREMELY worse than Japan's "lost decade". Market value decrease forecasts range from 30% to 90%, beginning anywhere from this May to 2015. Completely ignoring their number, breadth, and depth is just stupid for us peons, probably legally actionable for financial advisers. Nobody in their right mind makes such crucial decisions without at least studying and considering both sides of the picture ... 1) the rosy picture of any administration, the politically driven sycophants of the left wing media, the self-serving stock pushers of Wall Street, and Barney G.D. Frank vs 2) politically impartial analyses based on 200 years of data and multiple techniques and supported by good to great track records.

The LAST sources I'd base my fiscal future on are internet wankers, including me of course. Based on MANY failures by professionals in many fields in my own life, my two top contenders for issues worthy of my own major personal research time and effort are my health and my long term finances.
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slinky



Joined: 24 Aug 2007
Posts: 429
Location: Old Saybrook Ct.

PostPosted: Sat Mar 16, 2013 7:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks iso, but Your answer did not answer my question. Could we be faced with deflation of our economy rather than inflation and why? Anyone ? I believe it's a good possibility.
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 14322

PostPosted: Sat Mar 16, 2013 7:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

slinky wrote:
Thanks iso, but Your answer did not answer my question. Could we be faced with deflation of our economy rather than inflation and why? Anyone ? I believe it's a good possibility.

I'm not quite sure what you mean by "deflation of our economy", but what virtually every expert including Bernanke and Krugman expects out of quantitative easement (aka printing play money) is inflation ... an oversupply of money whose symptom is higher prices due to devaluation of the dollar. That's the PURPOSE of QE, in which Bernanke is one of the world's leading scholars, because it allows nations to pay back trillions of dollars in debt with play money worth only billions, thousands, or even tens of dollars on the world stage. The trick is to control that inflation, lest it go out of control or even imitate Zimbabwe or the Weimar Republic with total collapse. Ben and Paul hope and pray Ben can perform that magic, but history and economics rate its likelihood as slim to none.

The major debate is not whether inflation, but how much and how rapidly. Of the books I've read so far, only one author expects deflation, but even I see holes in his arguments. What's more telling is the many authors that devote a chapter or most of their whole books to proving the threat is inflation instead of deflation. Some expressly shoot down that author's arguments, by name. The primary reason we peons care is in what protective measures we take, because powerful deflation is just as bad as powerful deflation; both destroy the economy.
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