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GURGLETROUSERS



Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 1308

PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2013 12:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Glad I bought a new 29er mountain bike at Christmas.

If civilisation as we know it is about to come crashing down, the mountains (and my absolutely enormous leg muscles Laughing Laughing Laughing ) will still be there, as will my 'toy house' full of sea goodies, and attic packed with old, don't know what to do with, wet suits.

To blazes with gold. One has to get ones priorities right! Razz
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coboardhead



Joined: 26 Oct 2009
Posts: 1917

PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2013 12:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GURGLETROUSERS wrote:
Glad I bought a new 29er mountain bike at Christmas.

If civilisation as we know it is about to come crashing down, the mountains (and my absolutely enormous leg muscles Laughing Laughing Laughing ) will still be there, as will my 'toy house' full of sea goodies, and attic packed with old, don't know what to do with, wet suits.

To blazes with gold. One has to get ones priorities right! Razz


Best investment strategy I know! Returns are far superior to anything I have seen from a mine or an investment house! But, how does one protect those investments (leg muscles) from the deflationary trend I am seeing?
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stevenbard



Joined: 11 Nov 1993
Posts: 3952

PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2013 12:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

boggsman1 wrote:
stevenbard wrote:
boggsman1 wrote:
Hey ISO....howz that Gold thingee workin out for ya?


The fear is now deflation. There is a cancer on main street, but govt and corporations are screaming along. Ohhh, I just can't wait until interest rates scream up to 10%. So many wealthy buying real estate to protect from the coming inflation. Who's going to be right Boggs???

For the record Bard, you and ISO are in GOLD/anti dollar camp. I am not. I eat breath and sleep "the wealthy" , its my job, and I can tell you nobody is buying real estate as an inflation hedge. They are buying because rates are stupid low, they are super liquid, and because they can. The fear has ALWAYS been deflation, but you have been brainwashed by the GOLD bugs, and hyper inflation mongers.


I stopped being a gold bug over a year ago Boggs. And the wealthy I know are falling over themselves to buy Real Estate. Probably the worst time in history to buy unless you are locking loooong term financing and plan to own for 20 years. Your wealthy clients will not be liquid for long if they are buying RE.

Many that I know want hard assets to protect against currency collapse or inflation. That is why industrials with dividends are doing so well. Ultra low interest rates, money printing, and skyrocketing market, real estate and farm values? Where does this lead? Down the rabbit hole?

Like I said "Alice in Wonderland"...Don't buy gold yet.
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stevenbard



Joined: 11 Nov 1993
Posts: 3952

PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2013 12:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wink People are struggling to get out of all currencies if you hadn't noticed.
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boggsman1



Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 3473
Location: at a computer

PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2013 1:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

STeve...I agree that the wealthy are pouring money into hard assets, I just disagree that this strategy will protect them in the future, I think it will crush them.
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boggsman1



Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 3473
Location: at a computer

PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2013 1:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stevenbard wrote:
Wink People are struggling to get out of all currencies if you hadn't noticed.

Except the dollar, which is what I care about. Look at yen/dolla in past 6 months.
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stevenbard



Joined: 11 Nov 1993
Posts: 3952

PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2013 2:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

boggsman1 wrote:
STeve...I agree that the wealthy are pouring money into hard assets, I just disagree that this strategy will protect them in the future, I think it will crush them.


We agree 100%. I said the only way they might come out of it was with loooong term cheap money. Interesting phenomenon is South Americans, Japanese and others are buying U.S. real estate by the fistfull.
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swchandler



Joined: 08 Nov 1993
Posts: 5687

PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2013 2:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"And the wealthy I know are falling over themselves to buy Real Estate. Probably the worst time in history to buy unless you are locking loooong term financing and plan to own for 20 years. Your wealthy clients will not be liquid for long if they are buying RE."


Bard, when the real estate bubble burst and property values crashed, did rents for housing go down? No, in fact, they went up. With a combination of low interest rates and property values, a decision to invest in housing seems to be a good one. I wish I had the extra bucks to do it.
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stevenbard



Joined: 11 Nov 1993
Posts: 3952

PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2013 2:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

swchandler wrote:
"And the wealthy I know are falling over themselves to buy Real Estate. Probably the worst time in history to buy unless you are locking loooong term financing and plan to own for 20 years. Your wealthy clients will not be liquid for long if they are buying RE."


Bard, when the real estate bubble burst and property values crashed, did rents for housing go down? No, in fact, they went up. With a combination of low interest rates and property values, a decision to invest in housing seems to be a good one. I wish I had the extra bucks to do it.


It HAS BEEN a great place to be. In fact some segments only fell a little during the downturn. But like I tell my young nephews who are chomping at the bit to buy, "don't be in a hurry, because there will be a better time to buy". You want to buy real estate when interest rates have peaked and are falling. In the late 80's real estate yields were at 12-15%, today they are at 4-5%. Prime SFR's may still have room to move.
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keycocker



Joined: 10 Jul 2005
Posts: 3207

PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2013 4:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I make my whole living in real estate, but I dont understand that, Bard.
We buy rental houses when they are cheap and money is cheap.
As Chandler said, rents are up now and home prices are moving up quickly in my markets.
Those who wait for some indicator are missing the best buying opportunity we have ever seen.
Cheap money is good in both the long and short run in our business.
It makes acquisition costs lower, holding costs lower, and makes it easier to sell the properties if they rise.
Those who wish to use it to buy now, hold a few years by renting, and sell in an up market are positioning them selves to do well.
My problem has been those Latino and Asian buyers you mentioned. They are out bidding me on attractive deals here even though I always bid well over asking price.
They seem to be on the same page as me and my real estate investor friends.
I think analysis of the type used in financial markets is mainly useful for those who buy thousands of homes. They get involved in trends. If you buy them one at a time ,each house is a unique deal, like buying a used sail.
If it is a good deal go for it, don't analyse the future market trends at the bank near the launch.
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