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Forecasting dilemma

 
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Barnett



Joined: 11 Jul 2000
Posts: 115

PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 11:43 am    Post subject: Forecasting dilemma Reply with quote

I just read about a planet that was recently discovered, 28,000 light years from earth, that has a surface temperature of -364 degrees Fahrenheit.

They can tell me the temperature on a planet 28,000 light years (164,601,515,154,955,424 miles) from earth, but they can't reliably tell me if it is going to be windy on Cape Cod four hours from now so I can decide whether to make the drive. What's up with that?
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manuel



Joined: 08 Oct 2007
Posts: 96

PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 12:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Remarkable, isn't it?
The unknown makes it more fun to catch sessions!
Also, it pushes us to become more aware of weather patterns and such.

I personally enjoy waking up at 3am to chase 4hr-fronts coming in at 5am and going back home by 9am... makes for some unreal sessions.
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techno900



Joined: 28 Mar 2001
Posts: 1363

PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 1:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

barnett,

Don't believe the -364 number. It's a guess, just like the wind. It may be
-250 or maybe -500, but -364 is a good forecast.

Just like the wind, maybe it's 10 or possibly 25, but they will forecast 15.

It's all the same, but we would like to think that since the wind is outside our windows, someone could do a better job of forecasting.

I have at least 10 on line and TV forecasts that I check when it's sketchy. Today is one and I am typing this. Bummer.
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mchaco1



Joined: 08 Sep 2010
Posts: 638

PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 6:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Its easier to know things that have already happened, even if they happened 28000 years ago, than things that are in the future Laughing
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whitevan01



Joined: 29 Jun 2007
Posts: 423

PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 7:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

what chaco said. we all know the past, who knows the future?

forecasting: one has to use the principle of continuity which basically says that one has to assume that what has been happening will continue to happen in the same way. most of the time, weather doesn't do that. obviously. but, you already knew that based on past, not future, experience.
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mchaco1



Joined: 08 Sep 2010
Posts: 638

PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 8:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

anything nonlinear is always going to be hard..try predicting where your cat will be in 4 hours..you know where hes been and where he likes to go, but saying where he will be would be reaaal hard
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