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Sunday thermals on Cape Cod?
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jayturcot



Joined: 08 Mar 2004
Posts: 72

PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 8:42 am    Post subject: Sunday thermals on Cape Cod? Reply with quote

Forecast put out by iW looks a bit lack luster.

Feels like a great thermal set-up plus models show a SW building throughout the day so 11-15 at Kalmus just doesn't add up for me.

Do those who are older and wiser agree?

(clearly just fishing for optimism, but hopefully enlightened optimism from those with years of calling it)
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lasrer



Joined: 15 May 2000
Posts: 100

PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 9:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The temperature of the water on my trimaran depth sounder says 78.5 degrees last night in Nantucket sound

When I stood in the water windsurfing the other afternoon it felt like bathwater.

Doesn't make for a great Seabreeze gradient.

no prediction being made. too unpredictable.

ed
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shreddbob



Joined: 31 Mar 1987
Posts: 266
Location: Massachusetts

PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 2:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ed makes a good point. I think we're so used to the opposite effect when the cool water prevents warm SW wind attachment in spring (decoupling). But now with the very warm water it can get as hot as it wants and that should help the wind. The summer of 1988 was an exceptionally hot/muggy summer. I do remember that Kalmus had 25 mph+ winds for weeks on end from mid July until end of August. The water was very warm then too I remember. There was only muggy stillness in Boston when Kalmus was going off. Too bad we didn't have all the weather tools/websites back then to see what made it so windy. I know that was a persistent Bermuda High summer. I just don't know what the isobars looked like. I also remember the hour before 'til the hour after low tide was usually a lull in the wind (water really warming up at low tide, shutting off the thermal). The other strange thing was that Kalmus might have a late afternoon lull, but you could bank on the 7pm reprise of wind. I'd drive down from Boston after work for those.

Today, I'm guessing Kalmus has a 50/50 shot at 20 mph after 5:00. The isobars are looking decent to me, though it is concerning to see the bowing of the isobars just south of us (a pesky warm front forming?) The sun should stay strong so if you're on the Cape I'd keep open to the late sailing session possibility at Kalmus. West Dennis too, but never as strong as Kalmus when it's hot and muggy. But I'm not driving for it.



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flaherty



Joined: 01 May 1997
Posts: 342

PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 3:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nice analysis, shred bob. I made the mistake last Tuesday of going to WD , instead of Kalmus, and missed out. Also it seems, if there is any west in the wind, goto Kalmus instead of WD. The more southerly though, I think WD may be better. The waves at the Rock pile , seem to be bigger, when it's SSW or even due South. Although, exactly when the swell,will be good, at the Rocks, is still a big mystery to me. Hoping for wind tomorrow, and maybe Wed.
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paulf.



Joined: 21 Mar 1996
Posts: 317

PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 3:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm glad to hear you say this. As much as we go out to the rockpile, I've never figured out if higher tide going low or low tide starting in works better out there. WSW is certainly easier to get out but the only wave seems to be right in front of the rocks. After working out on more southerly stuff, at least you can get a few backside hits as the windswell breaks along the whole sandbar over towards bass river. Hope you catch it the next few days. Man, I need a fix bad.
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ron.c



Joined: 30 Oct 2004
Posts: 1399

PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 5:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I know I'm "all hat and no cattle" when it comes to sailing these days, but maybe something will happen Wednesday morning first thing. NOAA is already hinting at NW 15-20 with gusts to 25. My plan - Skaket at 6:30

I can't complain though with 6 solid surf sessions in the past 2 weeks. This morning was a slight test of courage (I did get a little wigged out) SUP'g shark alley completely on my own before the wind scruffed things up.

RC
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shreddbob



Joined: 31 Mar 1987
Posts: 266
Location: Massachusetts

PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 5:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

paulf. wrote:
I'm glad to hear you say this. As much as we go out to the rockpile, I've never figured out if higher tide going low or low tide starting in works better out there.


I've preferred incoming tide, any time from low to high. Once the tide switches and starts going out you have maybe an hour before the swells turn to chop. This is on a SSW wind, maybe due S too. Never had great luck with the swells there in WSW as mentioned.
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shreddbob



Joined: 31 Mar 1987
Posts: 266
Location: Massachusetts

PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 6:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

flaherty wrote:
Also it seems, if there is any west in the wind, goto Kalmus instead of WD. The more southerly though, I think WD may be better. .


Yeah, I def. prefer WD in the SSW, S winds. The caveat is that in the spring. when the water is cold, the more or less direct onshore fetch of these warm winds at WD almost always means decoupling worse than other spots. Kalmus has lots of wind attaching land all around for better coupling in cold water/warm wind situations. Interestingly/counterintuitively a SSW does very well at Chappy with cold water. This wind direction hugs the shoreline there. It has to be a synoptically driven (usually stormy) situation, as there is no southerly thermal potential at Chappy. This is my December or March warm rainstorm spot.
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jayturcot



Joined: 08 Mar 2004
Posts: 72

PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 7:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So it seems Kalmus never fired up in the end.

I stayed around Boston and looks like the thermal was stronger up here; which lines up well with the theory that the water in nantucket sound is just too warm now.
I guess there's always cheap lobster that I keep hearing about but have yet to capitalize on.
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boardsurfr



Joined: 23 Aug 2001
Posts: 543

PostPosted: Mon Jul 23, 2012 3:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fogland worked nicely yesterday. The iWindsurf meter only shows averages near 15, but it probably had 17-19 mph averages on the river. Seems we had a thermal boost of a few knots, while Kalmus did not because the winds were to southerly. Everyone was planing on big gear - Nina on 5.7/100l probably had the smallest gear. It was nice to plane for hours, it's been a while.
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