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Case mortality rate

 
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J64TWB



Joined: 24 Dec 2013
Posts: 1298

PostPosted: Fri Jun 26, 2020 9:17 pm    Post subject: Case mortality rate Reply with quote

Are we at about 5.1% in the US? Italy was over 10 correct? I cant seem to find good data. John Hopkins places it at 5.1.

I know we probably wont know the true rate for years, just wanted to see where others stand. In Illinois the survival rate is 94%.
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real-human



Joined: 02 Jul 2011
Posts: 11680
Location: on earth

PostPosted: Fri Jun 26, 2020 9:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

take the deaths per million and cases per million and you will get what you are looking for for about the best data at this point. you can sort columns here by clicking the header. Belgium has almost alays had the most dead per million. I would assume no one will pass them up at the end.

Italy went wild initially and early so they did not have enough ICU units or ventilators. Could be the same for Belgium, not really sure what happened there.

and lessons were learned how to deal with the shortage of ventilators by using CPAP and putting 2 on one ventilator. and such and now we have other options a low cost readily available drug that worked in the UK to save another 30% on ventilators so deaths per million should not hit Belgiums.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 14672
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

J--There's no way to know exactly. There are lots of undiagnosed cases, and a fair number of non-diagnosed deaths. In some cases, political pressure has meant that a patient with heart disease and COVID-19 is listed as having died of heart disease. Different local governments have a different degree of precision in what they require to list cause of death.

I saw a report this morning that suggested that 20 million Americans have contracted COVID-19 rather than the 2.5 million reported by Worldometer. I think that number is very suspect. As the testing capacity rises, we are seeing more reported infections, even in some places where the deaths were falling. But I have seen nothing that suggests an 8:1 ratio. Berkeley has ramped up testing, but is not finding a lot of cases. The city has a population of about 110,000, and 8400 have been tested, with 139 cases, and a very slow increase rate. That's a positive rate of 1.8%, nowhere near the number that would suggest there is a large reservoir of non-diagnosed people, or rapid growth.

There are certainly more non-diagnosed cases than non-diagnosed deaths, but I would guess it is more on the order of 2-3 times rather than 8. People with an agenda--like those who compared it to the flu--often push for a bigger number to support their claim that the death rate is low.

You can get a more realistic number by looking at countries where the pandemic has largely passed, so there aren't a lot of people already infected who will die. Spain had about 295,000 cases and 28,000 deaths--nearly 10% Italy had 240,000 cases and 34,000 deaths--well over 10%. Germany had 195,00 cases and 9,000 deaths, or under 5%. Obviously there are other factors like population age (high in the affected areas in Italy) and the quality of medical care. Worldwide, the number is about 5% with many cases still raging, about the same in the US. These are big numbers so they are statistically robust, but because of non-diagnosed cases, I would guess the actual rate is about half--or about 2%
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real-human



Joined: 02 Jul 2011
Posts: 11680
Location: on earth

PostPosted: Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mac wrote:
J--There's no way to know exactly. There are lots of undiagnosed cases, and a fair number of non-diagnosed deaths. In some cases, political pressure has meant that a patient with heart disease and COVID-19 is listed as having died of heart disease. Different local governments have a different degree of precision in what they require to list cause of death.

I saw a report this morning that suggested that 20 million Americans have contracted COVID-19 rather than the 2.5 million reported by Worldometer. I think that number is very suspect. As the testing capacity rises, we are seeing more reported infections, even in some places where the deaths were falling. But I have seen nothing that suggests an 8:1 ratio. Berkeley has ramped up testing, but is not finding a lot of cases. The city has a population of about 110,000, and 8400 have been tested, with 139 cases, and a very slow increase rate. That's a positive rate of 1.8%, nowhere near the number that would suggest there is a large reservoir of non-diagnosed people, or rapid growth.

There are certainly more non-diagnosed cases than non-diagnosed deaths, but I would guess it is more on the order of 2-3 times rather than 8. People with an agenda--like those who compared it to the flu--often push for a bigger number to support their claim that the death rate is low.

You can get a more realistic number by looking at countries where the pandemic has largely passed, so there aren't a lot of people already infected who will die. Spain had about 295,000 cases and 28,000 deaths--nearly 10% Italy had 240,000 cases and 34,000 deaths--well over 10%. Germany had 195,00 cases and 9,000 deaths, or under 5%. Obviously there are other factors like population age (high in the affected areas in Italy) and the quality of medical care. Worldwide, the number is about 5% with many cases still raging, about the same in the US. These are big numbers so they are statistically robust, but because of non-diagnosed cases, I would guess the actual rate is about half--or about 2%


I have been doing forecasting of viruses (dengue) for over 10 years from death numbers, had never seen anyone else doing it, I found it from the data that are about the most stable to use. Have been developing multipliers as people do now. It is nice to see the rest of the scientific community using my algorithms now. In engineering we have found there is no such thing as perfect data even in such things as concrete strength, so in general we have design multiples we add in for safety.

Also in addition to what you noted Germany does not use the TB vaccination still but they absorbed a soviet block country that did is why their numbers are lower and in line with that portion of the population with nations of the world that also had the TB vaccination. It also appears that the TB vaccination made by Bulgarians used in like Japan seems to be on the surface potentially a more effective one for covid19 than the one(s) used in the americas. The data engineers need to get into the raw data and crunch the numbers for this too. Right now I have two different multiplies for countries with TB vaccination programs and without. And noting I am looking at more depending on who made the TB vaccine. As testing catches up and does random testing which I have heard they are going to start we will not know. NY did one such random antibody tests at one point, I think they had noted under 20% had it or had had it. and again noting this is after going into lockdown.

https://www.livescience.com/covid-antibody-test-results-new-york-test.html

Quote:
If the actual infection rate among the entire population is similar to the early sample infection rate they found of 13.9%, it would change the death rate of the state, Cuomo said. New York is reporting 15,500 COVID-19 deaths, and if 2.7 million people were infected, that would mean the death rate would be 0.5%, Cuomo said.

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