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boggsman1



Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 3753
Location: at a computer

PostPosted: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Rethugs love to demonize Nancy Pelosi. Dennis Hastert was a terrible speaker but I bet you 1/2 of USA dont even know who he is. Whenever the argument gets technical, they default into an attack on liberals, I consider it a concession speech. When one argues economics, its important to use statistics that have been around for as long as possible: CPI, non-farm payrolls, ISM(formerly NAPM), etc. When ones argument starts to fail, you get a parsing of the stat-see Mr. Gybes disection of the CPI, or a comment about Nancy Pelosi.
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mrgybe



Joined: 01 Jul 2008
Posts: 2895

PostPosted: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

boggsman1 wrote:
The Rethugs love to demonize Nancy Pelosi. Dennis Hastert was a terrible speaker but I bet you 1/2 of USA dont even know who he is. Whenever the argument gets technical, they default into an attack on liberals, I consider it a concession speech. When one argues economics, its important to use statistics that have been around for as long as possible: CPI, non-farm payrolls, ISM(formerly NAPM), etc. When ones argument starts to fail, you get a parsing of the stat-see Mr. Gybes disection of the CPI, or a comment about Nancy Pelosi.


Boggsy, You're making no sense. You have said that the changes in Congress have set up good conditions for the market...........I say the same thing and you call that an attack on Pelosi! With regard to the CPI.........just because it's been around for a while, that doesn't make it a good measure.......most people are not experiencing 2% inflation.

As for "backing off", let me remind you of my response to you nine months ago.......

"Your view is that there will be a full blown recovery, accompanied by strong employment growth and a surge in tax revenues..........I hope you're right but I don't think so. I think, at best any recovery will be slow and weak"

I would not change a word of that.
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boggsman1



Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 3753
Location: at a computer

PostPosted: Fri Jan 07, 2011 1:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mrgybe wrote:
boggsman1 wrote:
Mr. glad you finally came around and admitted that the US economy is strong. Welcome to the bull market!


You may want to read my post again...........see the word "If". The US economy is not strong...........it is slowly improving as businesses adjust. Confidence is generally up now that Pelosi has handed over the gavel. Crude prices are reflecting that in part, and more mechanically, adjusting upward to the weakening dollar.

Mr G. this is what Im referring to. You think that confidence is up because Pelosi is out, my argument ignores politics and says market, and economy up, so are gas prices.
BTW- Im wrong about the recovery at this point, but not the market... check my prediction on the S&P in that same post 9 months ago, laser like in its preiction.
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mrgybe



Joined: 01 Jul 2008
Posts: 2895

PostPosted: Fri Jan 07, 2011 1:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

boggsman1 wrote:
........my argument ignores politics


I must have misread your posts............??????


boggsman1 wrote:
The script is so 1995 , it kills me. 1994 Dems get waxed, 2010, Dems get waxed. 1995-Dem prez shifts to Center 2011-Dem prez shifts to center. 1995 economy goes nuts, 2011-??


boggsman1 wrote:
In regards to split GOVT, and its successes, particularly a Dem prez, with Rethug Congress...you can research my views on this forum, and find I get very excited when this set-up exists.
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boggsman1



Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 3753
Location: at a computer

PostPosted: Fri Jan 07, 2011 2:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My argument about gas prices and economic activity, not markets. Please stop twisting my arguments. Clearly I think the combo of a a dem prez and rethug congress is good for the stock market. Mr G , your ability to slice and dice my posts, then apply the quotes to a subject , seperate to the one being argued would make Roger Ailes blush...
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swchandler



Joined: 08 Nov 1993
Posts: 6032

PostPosted: Fri Jan 07, 2011 2:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"You could not be more wrong. The condition of the US economy is a principal driver of gasoline prices. If the US economy is strong, that typically lifts other economies around the world causing an increase in demand for energy. Increased demand causes energy prices to rise.....always has."


I will readily admit that I'm not always right about everything, particularly concerning economic theory and practice, but it's my understanding that most commodity pricing is based on supply and demand. Seems to me that attributing rising oil pricing to the value of the US Dollar and our debt load is a bit of a stretch. I think that increasing worldwide demand, particularly by emerging economies in countries like China and India, is significantly affecting the increases in crude oil pricing. Also, I have to believe our limited refining capacity also plays heavily into what the price for fuel is at the pump.
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 5575

PostPosted: Fri Jan 07, 2011 2:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In this twisting of arguments, mrgybe does not pick on you only. I love folks who disagree with what we haven't said. Did you notice they usually return to talking points?

You're right about the market. I got pretty healthy this year, with less inflation than during the Bush years. Hmm, not consistent with the points he and bard tried to make is it. No recovery until Pelosi was gone? And the money that went to the Re-thugs, we know about that because it was disclosed, right. No, don't tell me the Re-thugs blocked that one?
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boggsman1



Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 3753
Location: at a computer

PostPosted: Fri Jan 07, 2011 2:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

yeah, maybe Mr G is just an alias for Mike Fick... Shocked
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swchandler



Joined: 08 Nov 1993
Posts: 6032

PostPosted: Fri Jan 07, 2011 3:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not a chance. isobars is far too much of a rabid egotist to use an alias.

Regarding mrgybe, he's a very sharp guy, and I have to say that I've got a lot of respect for him. Still though, that doesn't mean that I buy into his views on many things. But as conservatives go, he definitely got far more substance and credibility than some here boldly broadcasting right wing nonsense and hate. Also, one has to note that mrgybe clearly keeps a safe distance from a crazy character like isobars. Yet, his siding with Bard here is a bit surprising in my view. In the scheme of things, it's probably just an convenient opportunity to strike out at mac rather than a true synergy of thought with Bard's views.
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mrgybe



Joined: 01 Jul 2008
Posts: 2895

PostPosted: Fri Jan 07, 2011 4:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

swchandler wrote:
it's my understanding that most commodity pricing is based on supply and demand. Seems to me that attributing rising oil pricing to the value of the US Dollar and our debt load is a bit of a stretch. I think that increasing worldwide demand, particularly by emerging economies in countries like China and India, is significantly affecting the increases in crude oil pricing. Also, I have to believe our limited refining capacity also plays heavily into what the price for fuel is at the pump.


Most hydrocarbons are produced by countries whose currency is not the US dollar. If the dollar weakens they demand more dollars to keep them whole in local currency terms........the reverse is also true........it's very mechanical. As you say, worldwide demand is a significant determinant of hydrocarbon pricing........the anticipation of increased demand will drive prices up. Again, the reverse is also true. Worldwide refining capacity is not stretched at present, but if the global economy eventually rebounds strongly, that could change quickly and would, indeed, apply additional upward pressure on gas prices.
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