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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 11038
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Fri Apr 27, 2018 12:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Malibu's source for this is: https://www.realclearmarkets.com/2018/04/24/did_you_know_greatest_two-year_cooling_event_just_happened_213620.html

Of course it quickly goes viral on conservative web sites. The underlying authors include Judith Curry, a darling of the deniers. You can find her cv here: http://curry.eas.gatech.edu/files/currycv.pdf

She is not untrained in climate science, but precious little of her work on climate change has been peer reviewed. She is generally careful in the conclusion she draws--but that doesn't stop the denier industry from spinning the results at every opportunity.

Nic Lewis, her co-author, is a notorious climate denier who often leaves out Curry's own conclusion that CO2 is warming the planet. A bit about him:

Quote:
Nic Lewis. A semiretired successful financier from Bath, England, with a strong mathematics and physics background, Mr. Lewis has made significant contributions to the subject of climate change

Nic Lewis’ academic background is mathematics, with a minor in physics, at Cambridge University (UK). His career has been outside academia. Two or three years ago, he returned to his original scientific and mathematical interests and, being interested in the controversy surrounding AGW, started to learn about climate science. He is co-author of the paper that rebutted Steig et al. Antarctic temperature reconstruction (Ryan O’Donnell, Nicholas Lewis, Steve McIntyre and Jeff Condon, 2011, Improved methods for PCA-based reconstructions: case study using the Steig et al. (2009) Antarctic temperature reconstruction, Journal of Climate


Aaron Brown, who created the article, is a journalist. Left out of Malibu's careful spin is this paragraph:

Quote:
None of this argues against global warming. The 1950s was the last decade cooler than the previous decade, the next five decades were all warmer on average than the decade before. Two year cooling cycles, even if they set records, are statistical noise compared to the long-term trend. Moreover, the case for global warming does not rely primarily on observed warming; it has models, historical studies and other science behind it. Another point is both February 1998 and February 2016 were peak El Niño months so the record declines are starting from high peaks—but it's also true that there have been many other peak El Niño months in the past century and none were followed by such dramatic cooling.


Oh dear, Malibu has been caught lying again. He'll never catch up with Trump.
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MalibuGuru



Joined: 11 Nov 1993
Posts: 7729

PostPosted: Fri Apr 27, 2018 1:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mac wrote:
Malibu's source for this is: https://www.realclearmarkets.com/2018/04/24/did_you_know_greatest_two-year_cooling_event_just_happened_213620.html

Of course it quickly goes viral on conservative web sites. The underlying authors include Judith Curry, a darling of the deniers. You can find her cv here: http://curry.eas.gatech.edu/files/currycv.pdf

She is not untrained in climate science, but precious little of her work on climate change has been peer reviewed. She is generally careful in the conclusion she draws--but that doesn't stop the denier industry from spinning the results at every opportunity.

Nic Lewis, her co-author, is a notorious climate denier who often leaves out Curry's own conclusion that CO2 is warming the planet. A bit about him:

Quote:
Nic Lewis. A semiretired successful financier from Bath, England, with a strong mathematics and physics background, Mr. Lewis has made significant contributions to the subject of climate change

Nic Lewis’ academic background is mathematics, with a minor in physics, at Cambridge University (UK). His career has been outside academia. Two or three years ago, he returned to his original scientific and mathematical interests and, being interested in the controversy surrounding AGW, started to learn about climate science. He is co-author of the paper that rebutted Steig et al. Antarctic temperature reconstruction (Ryan O’Donnell, Nicholas Lewis, Steve McIntyre and Jeff Condon, 2011, Improved methods for PCA-based reconstructions: case study using the Steig et al. (2009) Antarctic temperature reconstruction, Journal of Climate


Aaron Brown, who created the article, is a journalist. Left out of Malibu's careful spin is this paragraph:

Quote:
None of this argues against global warming. The 1950s was the last decade cooler than the previous decade, the next five decades were all warmer on average than the decade before. Two year cooling cycles, even if they set records, are statistical noise compared to the long-term trend. Moreover, the case for global warming does not rely primarily on observed warming; it has models, historical studies and other science behind it. Another point is both February 1998 and February 2016 were peak El Niño months so the record declines are starting from high peaks—but it's also true that there have been many other peak El Niño months in the past century and none were followed by such dramatic cooling.


Oh dear, Malibu has been caught lying again. He'll never catch up with Trump.


Funny, that according to the settled science the Arctic should be ice free. I'm just pointing out that settled science doesn't seem to be settled.
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nw30



Joined: 21 Dec 2008
Posts: 5075
Location: The eye of the universe, Cen. Cal. coast

PostPosted: Fri Apr 27, 2018 2:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just the term "settled science" is a misnomer in itself, science is rarely if ever settled, new things are being discovered all the time with things that were originally figured as settled, no matter what the subject is.

It's like a scientist saying "okay we're done with that, next", you will never hear that.
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wsurfer



Joined: 17 Aug 2000
Posts: 690

PostPosted: Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

nw30 wrote:
Just the term "settled science" is a misnomer in itself, science is rarely if ever settled, new things are being discovered all the time with things that were originally figured as settled, no matter what the subject is.

It's like a scientist saying "okay we're done with that, next", you will never hear that.


On this I agree. There is NOTHING settled about science. It evolves.
However if you think there are NO consequences for dumping all that we do into our atmosphere and oceans you are doing nothing more than sticking your head in the sand. SAD Exclamation Exclamation Exclamation
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nw30



Joined: 21 Dec 2008
Posts: 5075
Location: The eye of the universe, Cen. Cal. coast

PostPosted: Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Now you're talking pollution, nobody denies pollution, nobody is for pollution, not in this country anyway, if they are honest about it.
Don't think anybody posting here is for pollution, that would be your head full of sand.
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wsurfer



Joined: 17 Aug 2000
Posts: 690

PostPosted: Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

nw30 wrote:
Now you're talking pollution, nobody denies pollution, nobody is for pollution, not in this country anyway, if they are honest about it.
Don't think anybody posting here is for pollution, that would be your head full of sand.


OK gaseous pollution. It has an effect. Try telling me you can run your car in the garage with the door closed and it will have no effect on ANY living organism that is trapped in there. Kind of a really simple concept if you think about it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_law_of_thermodynamics

https://jennifercoopersmith.com/2015/04/15/global-warming-and-the-second-law-of-thermodynamics/

Happy reading!!!
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 11038
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This has happened about fifty times. Some conservative sends me an e-mail, or posts on iwindsurf, without reading or understanding the full story. Malibu and NW lead here, all excited “gotchas”, this article means that there isn’t any warming. Oops. In every case the article posted or cited doesn’t actually say, or mean, what they claim. Or it is an op ed piece created by someone like Lord Monckton— a conservative economist, not a peer reviewed scientific article. I check. Fred Singer and Willie Soon ares favorites of Isobars. Steve Malloy is mrgybe’s go-to liar. Some of these guys helped hide the science on tobacco health effects.

For years I have acknowledged that climate models are not predictions, and all our science has a level of uncertainty that is acknowledged in the models. I have also noted that there are short term anomalies—like El Nino’s—that must be averaged out to get a good sense of trends. So we’ve had a warm period and a cool period, and the article is about the two year cool period. Neither indicate trends—they are anmalies.

Peoiple that declare that an El Nino means warming has accelerated are wrong. They may be uninformed, some of them may be dishonest. But people who hide a part of the article—which is what Malibu’s posting does—are dishonest. Now maybe Malibu didn’t make that elission—but he constantly posts such articles without either checking or trying to understand the context.

And then NW claims there is no difference in the integrity of sources.

Cue—I scare myself—by watching fake news and never checking.

Morons.
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MalibuGuru



Joined: 11 Nov 1993
Posts: 7729

PostPosted: Fri Apr 27, 2018 9:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mac, the oceans are disgusting with plastics destroying our eco systems. Growing arctic ice bores are pulling up plastic and pollutants. If you want the right to embrace your cause, let's talk about real pollution, including air, water, ice and viruses. We can all get behind this.

Global warming puts everyone to sleep.
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 11038
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Fri Apr 27, 2018 10:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MalibuGuru wrote:
Mac, the oceans are disgusting with plastics destroying our eco systems. Growing arctic ice bores are pulling up plastic and pollutants. If you want the right to embrace your cause, let's talk about real pollution, including air, water, ice and viruses. We can all get behind this.

Global warming puts everyone to sleep.


Pray tell Bard, how would you do that? Your beloved oil companies have increased the amount of plastic produced by twenty-fold, and are on track to double the amount of plastic they generate—a significant amount of which is disposed of into the marine environment. Your beloved Trump and his crooked sidekick Pruitt have cut enforcement on illegal dumping of all kinds, and rolled back economic incentives that might reduce plastic. My city just passed an ordinance penalizing plastic packaging, something supported by any number of environmental groups I have worked with. Maybe you can start such an effort in Malibu and Los Angeles?

https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/assets/downloads/news/New-Plastics-Economy_Background-to-Key-Statistics_19022016v2.pdf

It’s not just the big hunks of plastic that are a problem—small pieces accummulate in organisms. One organization that studies these—the San Francisco Estuary Institute—is one where I served as a Board member for over a decade, helping set research priorities into microplastics. See http://www.sfei.org/projects/microplastic-pollution#sthash.XdSWcuus.dpbs

You are dead wrong on climate change. The heat is frying coral reefs and the storage of CO2 is killing everything else by acidification. It has always been a mystery to me why any waterman or woman can stand by while our playground is poisoned. Perhaps you slept through the science lesson. Or posted another fake news story without thinking or checking.
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MalibuGuru



Joined: 11 Nov 1993
Posts: 7729

PostPosted: Fri Apr 27, 2018 11:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mac wrote:
MalibuGuru wrote:
Mac, the oceans are disgusting with plastics destroying our eco systems. Growing arctic ice bores are pulling up plastic and pollutants. If you want the right to embrace your cause, let's talk about real pollution, including air, water, ice and viruses. We can all get behind this.

Global warming puts everyone to sleep.


Pray tell Bard, how would you do that? Your beloved oil companies have increased the amount of plastic produced by twenty-fold, and are on track to double the amount of plastic they generate—a significant amount of which is disposed of into the marine environment. Your beloved Trump and his crooked sidekick Pruitt have cut enforcement on illegal dumping of all kinds, and rolled back economic incentives that might reduce plastic. My city just passed an ordinance penalizing plastic packaging, something supported by any number of environmental groups I have worked with. Maybe you can start such an effort in Malibu and Los Angeles?

https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/assets/downloads/news/New-Plastics-Economy_Background-to-Key-Statistics_19022016v2.pdf

It’s not just the big hunks of plastic that are a problem—small pieces accummulate in organisms. One organization that studies these—the San Francisco Estuary Institute—is one where I served as a Board member for over a decade, helping set research priorities into microplastics. See http://www.sfei.org/projects/microplastic-pollution#sthash.XdSWcuus.dpbs

You are dead wrong on climate change. The heat is frying coral reefs and the storage of CO2 is killing everything else by acidification. It has always been a mystery to me why any waterman or woman can stand by while our playground is poisoned. Perhaps you slept through the science lesson. Or posted another fake news story without thinking or checking.


This is your city. Unfortunately my grandson and I just rode Bart on Sunday..

https://youtu.be/5gT5NULvRSk

Make these bums pick up trash
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