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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 9590

PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 5:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Maria hits Puerto Rico as a category 4 storm with winds to 155 mph. Nothing to see here, no relationship to warmer water. People shouldn't listen to the news and evacuate, it's no big deal. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/20/us/hurricane-maria-puerto-rico.html?mcubz=0
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nw30



Joined: 21 Dec 2008
Posts: 4179
Location: The eye of the universe, Cen. Cal. coast

PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mac wrote:
Maria hits Puerto Rico as a category 4 storm with winds to 155 mph. Nothing to see here, no relationship to warmer water. People shouldn't listen to the news and evacuate, it's no big deal. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/20/us/hurricane-maria-puerto-rico.html?mcubz=0

Damn, thanks for the news, I had no idea there was another hurricane!
Between you and Dean, we'd have no idea what's happening out there in the news world.
What the hell would we do without you two?

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I don't drink the 'cool' aid, I drink tequila, it's more honest.
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coboardhead



Joined: 26 Oct 2009
Posts: 2812

PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NW...You mean besides listen to Ted Danson and base your denier arguments because he was wrong! It's pretty funny how often you bring up celebrities to diminish an argument rather than just back up your arguments with some facts rather than quote an actor who was talking out his...

Did climate change models under-estimate the effects of heat storage in the ocean? Well, it looks like it did. But, that in itself scares me a bit. There's a lot of water and what might seem like minor changes could be significant energy. See, the thing about carbon in the atmosphere is that it traps energy (in the form of heat) So, that's f---king with a lot of systems that are pretty f---king complicated (I'm trying to speak the new language of the Trump generation).

We know that we are trapping energy. We just haven't quite figured out what ramifications it will ultimately have. Looking at the hurricane season presenting itself it would be foolishness to not look at the possibility that climate change has had significant influence.

Guys like you make my job really difficult. You keep enough doubt going that politicians cannot act responsibly in enacting new building standards and codes. Design professionals don't get to unilaterally decide to upgrade building systems to save people's lives. We need governmental process in order to do that.

In my opinion, we cannot stop global climate change. The forces of economy are too strong. But, we can study the effects and mitigate the effects. But, burying heads in the sand gets us nothing.
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MalibuGuru



Joined: 11 Nov 1993
Posts: 6662

PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Isn't ski season starting up soon?
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coboardhead



Joined: 26 Oct 2009
Posts: 2812

PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MalibuGuru wrote:
Isn't ski season starting up soon?


Not here. Road my bike at 12,000 feet this last weekend. It'll be awhile. Yep, it snowed...gone by noon. It used to do that in August.
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LHDR



Joined: 22 Jun 2007
Posts: 267

PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mrgybe wrote:
For those whose minds aren't closed.........

"Climate change poses less of an immediate threat to the planet than previously thought because scientists got their modelling wrong, a new study has found." (Daily Telegraph)

"Computer modelling used a decade ago to predict how quickly global average temperatures would rise may have forecast too much warming, a study has found. Scientists said previous models may have been "on the hot side".
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-global-warming-paris-climate-agreement-nature-geoscience-myles-allen-michael-grubb-a7954496.html

Not sure what "closed minds" is referring to. The reasoning and conclusions of this article are pretty much what Republicans in Congress and right wingers here ridicule. For example, from the newspaper:

"The previous scenario allowed for the planet to emit a total of 70 billion tonnes of Carbon after 2015, in order to keep temperature rises to just 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. But the reassessment allows for a "carbon budget" of another 240bn tonnes of emissions before catastrophic damage is done. "That's about 20 years of emissions before temperatures are likely to cross 1.5C," Professor Allen said. "It's the difference between being not doable and being just doable."

Limiting warming to 1.5C? Discussing if it is not doable or just doable? That could be mac talking. Certainly the type of stuff that right wingers here try to make fun of and dismiss.

Or from the Nature Geoscience article abstract:

"Hence, limiting warming to 1.5C is not yet a geophysical impossibility, but is likely to require delivery on strengthened pledges for 2030 followed by challengingly deep and rapid mitigation. Strengthening near-term emissions reductions would hedge against a high climate response or subsequent reduction rates proving economically, technically or politically unfeasible."

I suspect what mrgybe and other right wingers may wish to take from this article is quite the opposite, namely that all climate models are too unreliable to be useful for justifying policies limiting predicted global warming.
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mrgybe



Joined: 01 Jul 2008
Posts: 4432

PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

LHDR wrote:
Not sure what "closed minds" is referring to.


How about this response to the article?

mac wrote:
As usual, taken out of context and spun. Complete discussions are not likely to be included--or read--in conservative media.

The Independent is a liberal newspaper ranked alongside The Guardian for its left wing viewpoint. But, of course, anything that doesn't follow the "settled science" is instantly dismissed as "conservative" by those with closed minds, in much the same way that Judith Curry, a decent and educated commentator, is dismissed as "the deniers favorite pet scientist".
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boggsman1



Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 5700
Location: at a computer

PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hey Mr. G...the folks at the Weather Channel are awaiting your apology.
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mrgybe



Joined: 01 Jul 2008
Posts: 4432

PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 10:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You mean the same people that told everyone in the Tampa area that they should expect a 15 foot storm surge topped by large waves only hours before the storm hit that area? The same one's that forgot that the rotation of the storm going up the West coast would cause the water to blown offshore not the reverse. The one's who didn't seem to know that a major element of storm surge is an ocean build over days as the storm moves nearer to land...and that wouldn't happen with the change of course? Remind me, what I am apologizing for?
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 9590

PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 10:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mrgybe wrote:
You mean the same people that told everyone in the Tampa area that they should expect a 15 foot storm surge topped by large waves only hours before the storm hit that area? The same one's that forgot that the rotation of the storm going up the West coast would cause the water to blown offshore not the reverse. The one's who didn't seem to know that a major element of storm surge is an ocean build over days as the storm moves nearer to land...and that wouldn't happen with the change of course? Remind me, what I am apologizing for?


Mrgybe, knowing more than the rest of us, knew that the storm would go up the west not east coast. He has a special line to god.

The question of "settled science" and mrgybe's apologies for the carbon companies are tiresome, dishonest, and the antithesis of science. The IPPC reports synthesize work done on climate change and contain relatively new work--only analysis of existing work. The physics are clear, greenhouse gasses trap heat on the planet and the level of greenhouse gasses have increased significantly. The evidence of the resultant warming is overwhelming. We have measured the increase in average temperatures with some precision. We have measured the accumulation of heat in the ocean, and the total is overwhelming and frightening. We have clear information from regions throughout the world that the planting season--and harvest season--have move moved forward by weeks and up slope. We are seeing changes in ecological assemblages that match those temperature changes. I have no idea how many bits of empirical evidence show warming--maybe thousands, maybe more.

In the face of this overwhelming evidence, mrgybe clings to the denier mantra "the models weren't accurate." Yeah, so we ignore the rest of the evidence? So oil companies can make more?

Several more cities have sued the oil companies for their lying and impacts. Many of those who hate regulation have forgotten that credible regulation is a rational response to massive litigation. We shall see what happens--and we shall watch the deniers ignore more evidence.
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