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MalibuGuru



Joined: 11 Nov 1993
Posts: 9293

PostPosted: Mon Nov 21, 2016 11:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://realclimatescience.com/2016/11/noaa-adjustments-correlate-exactly-to-their-confirmation-bias/
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real-human



Joined: 02 Jul 2011
Posts: 14837
Location: on earth

PostPosted: Tue Nov 22, 2016 1:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MalibuGuru wrote:
Americans are more scared of clowns than they are of climate change.
According to a poll conducted by Chapman University, 42 per cent of Americans are afraid of clowns, whereas only 32 per cent are afraid of climate change.
specially that orange one who calls himself trump.. scienest clown in the history of the USA, just asked the girl who claims he rapered he when she was 13 years old and he was in his 50s...
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when good people stay silent the right wing are the only ones heard.
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GURGLETROUSERS



Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 2643

PostPosted: Sun Nov 27, 2016 4:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just a note on the latest release of data from N.A.S.A. of global ElNino temps from 1995 to 2016. The graph shows that ElNino 2016 was probably the strongest since accurate records were kept.Now, an equally strong NaNino (cooling) is predicted for 2017 and is already well under way with a drop of more than 1 degree centigrade since late summer 2016. (N.A.S.A. published graph.)

2016 will still be recorded as one of the warmest ElNino years because cooling of the raised sea temps will lag a year or so behind the cooling land temps, but the sea temps WILL follow suit!

Prof Judith Curry (Quote.)

"The record warming years of 2015 and 2016 were primarily caused by the 'super' ElNino."

Coincidentally, studies of Captain Scotts Antarctic diaries and ice observations have been correlated with the present Antarctic ice thickness and extent, and match! Ironically, a research group of dedicated warmers who set out to map the ice retreat and thinning last year, was, to some amusement, stranded in the thickening and extended ice when their ship got stuck, and couldn't break back out! ( Come back Captain Scott, all is forgiven!)
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mat-ty



Joined: 07 Jul 2007
Posts: 7850

PostPosted: Sun Nov 27, 2016 6:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GURGLETROUSERS wrote:
Just a note on the latest release of data from N.A.S.A. of global ElNino temps from 1995 to 2016. The graph shows that ElNino 2016 was probably the strongest since accurate records were kept.Now, an equally strong NaNino (cooling) is predicted for 2017 and is already well under way with a drop of more than 1 degree centigrade since late summer 2016. (N.A.S.A. published graph.)

2016 will still be recorded as one of the warmest ElNino years because cooling of the raised sea temps will lag a year or so behind the cooling land temps, but the sea temps WILL follow suit!

Prof Judith Curry (Quote.)

"The record warming years of 2015 and 2016 were primarily caused by the 'super' ElNino."

Coincidentally, studies of Captain Scotts Antarctic diaries and ice observations have been correlated with the present Antarctic ice thickness and extent, and match! Ironically, a research group of dedicated warmers who set out to map the ice retreat and thinning last year, was, to some amusement, stranded in the thickening and extended ice when their ship got stuck, and couldn't break back out! ( Come back Captain Scott, all is forgiven!)



What the hell are you talking about? THIS IS SETTLED SCIENCE Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes
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MalibuGuru



Joined: 11 Nov 1993
Posts: 9293

PostPosted: Sun Nov 27, 2016 6:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Of course it's settled, there are quadrillions of data points within the models and variables such as solar activity, and ocean currents that are impossible to model, but this is definitive. We must tax all forms of energy so that the poor are even poorer and the factories will close, sealing the deal.
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real-human



Joined: 02 Jul 2011
Posts: 14837
Location: on earth

PostPosted: Sun Nov 27, 2016 9:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MalibuGuru wrote:
Of course it's settled, there are quadrillions of data points within the models and variables such as solar activity, and ocean currents that are impossible to model, but this is definitive. We must tax all forms of energy so that the poor are even poorer and the factories will close, sealing the deal.


ya like I would believe in your analysis of anything to do with science. Did you get your degree at trumped up university....

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GURGLETROUSERS



Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 2643

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2016 3:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

To add a bit more-

According to the press write-ups, the global average temp drop of 1 degree centigrade over the land since the middle of this year is the biggest and steepest fall on record, and that the recent run of record high temps is about to end.

Also,the N.A.S.A. web site home page featured a new study which said there WAS an hiatus in global warming before the recent ElNino, and discussed why this was so.

Curry added, that the slow down in warming was real, and all the evidence suggested that since 1998, the rate of warming had been much slower than any computer models had predicted.

There is also disagreement about what is really happening in Antarctica, with some evidence to suggest that the land ice is actually increasing in mass, in direct contrast to what is taking place in Northern latitudes.
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GURGLETROUSERS



Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 2643

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2016 3:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Err- Should also have added that our Met Office super computer, (along with those who rely on reading the runes, I expect) is warning of another very severe Winter making us colder than Iceland! (Just bought a new uprated winter wetsuit, and need it at my age.)

But naturally, that's just weather, and half the world is about to be submerged iunder a 30 foot rise in sea level in the not too distant future. That is a fact!
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17742
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2016 12:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I love it when those who have no grasp of critical thinking try to argue science. First, there is confirmation bias, no surprise to anyone. But to use a denier site, paid by big carbon, as evidence of any particular confirmation bias is sheer lunacy. Expected in a post-truth world where any Tweet by a orange-headed pathological liar is accepted as the truth.

Second, there are multiple different weather and climate cycles, not merely El Nino and La Nina. Responsible scientists--who don't post on real climate--factor those cycles out. The technique looks at deviation from the mean, and then look at longer term changes in the mean. There are more sophisticated techniques that look at correlation and try to isolate the magnitude of such anomalies. Learned this in graduate school in numerical methods.

Second, there may well be evidence that warming--of the atmosphere--is increasing more slowly than the models. As I have noted repeatedly, models are most useful for comparing scenarios, but should always be taken with a grain of salt as predictors of any particular future. What is ignored in this particular argument, surfaced by paid deniers and repeated here by true believers, is that there are multiple lines of evidence of warming that are being investigated. The other lines of evidence--much more rapid melting of glaciers than predicted, more rapid sea level rise than predicted, greater storage of heat in the ocean than predicted, and rapid acidification of ocean waters--are ignored by the denier shills.

Finally, the slower than predicted increases in average temperature, if born out by sufficient data, is not evidence than climate change is not occurring. Rather, it is evidence of slower increases--in atmospheric warming only. When combined with the other lines of evidence, we develop a better understanding of the planet's coping mechanisms.

The Trumpist solution? Quit doing the research. The ostrich solution. You guys go, let's go back to the pre-science age.

Quote:
Donald Trump is poised to eliminate all climate change research conducted by Nasa as part of a crackdown on “politicized science”, his senior adviser on issues relating to the space agency has said.

Nasa’s Earth science division is set to be stripped of funding in favor of exploration of deep space, with the president-elect having set a goal during the campaign to explore the entire solar system by the end of the century.


What else would we expect for a man who brags about how long it has been since he read a book?
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GURGLETROUSERS



Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 2643

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2016 3:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"Responsible scientists - who DON'T PRINT on real climate."

WHAT! You mean all the radically wrong statements and published predictions over the years (far too many to bother listing - but my favourite- children born today may never know what snow is- takes the biscuit) were made up lies by big carbon shrills to discredit these god-like scientists who claim such remarkable powers of foresight. Presumably N.A.S.A. is now also included as a denier site, paid for by big carbon! (Another messenger shot!)

Really, we doubters of these scientists clear infallibility should horse-whip ourselves. Though, on second thoughts, I'll just continue windsurfing while I can before the North Sea freezes over. And that's a good deal less unlikely than it will ever feel warm!
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