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techno900



Joined: 28 Mar 2001
Posts: 4162

PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mac said:
Quote:
I don't believe for a second that Techno came up with the snowfall totals for Mammoth Lake on his own, or he can render a coherent argument about what he thinks it means. There are a host of knuckle-dragging web sites, and he didn't name his source. this is how it goes in the denier industry. Lots of money to be made lying for big oil.


Now Mac goes off the deep end again with a feeble attempt at a put down. And as before, he is still so wrong.

I frequently go to the Mammoth Mt. web site to check on the snow fall because I have skied there many times and that's where my brother, niece and husband ski (they live in San Diego). You came up with the Sierra snow issue, so I went to the snow fall history on the Mammoth Mt. web site, copied the info. and pasted it. I then looked further for the other data to see if it was similar, and it was so I posted it too. Since you can't see that this is a coherent argument, one that you haven't been able to counter, I feel sad for you.

swchandler's post is just silly. Yes Mammoth gets a lot of snow, usually more than the rest of the Sierra. However, we are looking at annual variations and historical trends, so the actual depth of snow at Mammoth as compared to the other stats I posted have no baring on the issue of a warming trend or not. While the depths may vary on the same years, the historical trend is parallel.

You guys have to try harder.
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17749
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 4:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Shooting fish in a barrel. There are two different subjects here, and Techno's point was pretty obscure, and seemed to link the two. There is the drought, and the question of whether or not there is a relationship between the drought and climate change. The second question is whether or not climate change is affecting storage of water in the snow pack in California.

Let me deal with the second first. Among the things about water that I have forgotten is that apologists for carbon pollution do not understand hydrology or geography. But first let me remind you of mrgybe's mistaken "gotcha":

Quote:
When he said that the snow pack in the Sierras is being lost to global warming, and you demonstrated that the data doesn't support that assertion,


Techno posted a chaotic snowfall data, without analysis, from Mammoth Mountain--which is at elevation 11,060 feet. Precipitation that falls at that height will always fall as snowfall. Temperature drops as you get higher. The snowfall record at Mammoth, and storage at Mammoth, is not expected to change. Techno also posted a graph of snowfall at Donner Summit, which I missed the first time. Donner Summit is over 7,000 feet. Except in the late spring, precipitation at Donner Summit will fall as snow. But the part of the Sierra's between 4,000 and 6,000 feet is where precipitation can fall as either snow or rain. A significant part of California's snowpack, which is stored and released by melting when there is capacity in the reservoirs--falls in that elevation band. This is the snowpack that is changing.

So you can see that arguing snowfall at high elevations means that California is not losing its storage in snowpack is like using snowfall at the South Pole to argue that the North Pole is not warming. They are two different things. Caching, you are both wrong on this one, but carry on.

Now comes the question of whether or not the current drought is causally related to climate change. There mrgybe actually captured a bit of truth--but missed and misrepresented my point entirely. Drought is a natural cycle in California, and in-frequent enough that the data set about duration is not sufficient to identify causes. Until this year I had resisted arguments that there was any relationship between climate change and the current drought, except for the general understanding that climate change can worsen a drought. I have still not seen any peer-reviewed papers that clearly make that case. What I posted, and both Techno and the Raj ignored, was a reference to an article from Stanford scientists that makes the connection. Haven't read it, haven't seen it peer-reviewed, not convinced--but it is a provocative idea from people who know tons more than I do, and tens of tons more than Techno and mrgybe. Here's the link again: http://www.pressreader.com/usa/san-francisco-chronicle/20150419/281487864884389/TextView

Here is a citation for the article: Diffenbaugh, N.S., D.L. Swain and D. Touma, Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi:10.1073/pnas.1422385112, 2015.

and here is the Stanford group's web site: https://pangea.stanford.edu/researchgroups/cesd/

Unlike mrgybe's sources, it takes a substantial professional reputation, and great rigor in analysis, to have a paper published by the Academy of Sciences. Do you think I would believe the scientists at Stanford before the carbon-funded advocacy groups that send Techno and mrgybe misleading information to repost? You betcha. But you can read it and provide your expert peer analysis for the scientific team. Next question.
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mrgybe



Joined: 01 Jul 2008
Posts: 5180

PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 5:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can't trust Stanford climate studies.........they are carbon funded.
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/21/us/exxon-led-group-is-giving-a-climate-grant-to-stanford.html

He loves the carbon funded Stanford climate studies, but dismisses NOAA as a credible climate source in his failing attempts to wriggle out of this......

"Missing from most people's understanding is that, for the last 80 years, the snow pack in the Sierra's has been the most efficient and cheapest reservoir. We are losing that to climate change".

Couldn't be clearer. But no, he protests, he was misrepresented entirely. Perhaps he misspoke. No wonder he supports Hillary.
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17749
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 6:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The serial liar again avoids or mis-states the bulk of my statement, and then attempts to put words in my mouth. Where exactly did I "dismiss NOAA as a credible climate source?" Oh, right, I did not. What uwindsurf said, and I agree with, and you keep avoiding, is that NOAA said that climate change has probably made the drought worse. Nothing I said disagreed with or dismissed that.

What I did say, and you haven't bothered to consider, is that there is a new study--and I gave you the citation--that draws the conclusion I quoted in my original posting. It is newer than the NOAA study, and may, or may not, be right. That, of course, is what scientific journals and peer review is about. Of course, you paid no attention to it--or to the distinction.

What is hysterically funny about this is that you guys have conflated three distinct lines of reasoning--what to do about the drought and water in California, what is happening to the snow pack, and whether there is a link between the drought (either frequency or severity) and climate change. NW cites an article written by an urban social scientist with no credentials or background in water policy or climate, Joel Kotkin, who trots out the conservative talking points that enviros have hurt farming in the Central Valley by asking for water for endangered species. In the process Kotkin proposes immensely expensive solutions, in particular desalinization, that would put water far outside of the capacity of agriculture to buy. But you guys love this silliness--and particularly his sideways shot at climate science, and think you have a credible source to refute climate science.

Then Techno posts snowfall levels at high elevations and says that means there is no trend to reduced snowpack, Right--for a portion of the watershed that remains cold enough to freeze. You jump in and confuse drought causation and climate change. Somehow this all comes back to a gotcha that your e-mail source, never cited, has refuted global warming.

Then to top it off, you ignore the refuttal of your argument and make up things that I am supposed to have said. I can't figure out if you are simply too stupid to comprehend a train of reasoning, or too dishonest to study the facts. Carry on.
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swchandler



Joined: 08 Nov 1993
Posts: 10588

PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 6:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

techno900, perhaps you are confusing me with mac. Did I make any reference to climate change or global warming? No, my point was that snowfall at Mammoth Mountain isn't necessarily representative of snowfall in other parts of the Sierra. Seemingly on that point, you agree with me, so what's so silly about what I said?
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 20935

PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 6:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mrgybe wrote:
for the last 80 years, the snow pack in the Sierra's has been the most efficient and cheapest reservoir. We are losing that to climate change".[/i]

You should probably explain to the alarmist crowd that the volume difference between the WEATHER in one mountain range and the earth's atmosphere's CLIMATE is at LEAST a factor of one million ... not even one drop in a 10-gallon bucket.
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uwindsurf



Joined: 18 Aug 2012
Posts: 968
Location: Classified

PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 10:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well Master Gybe, either you believe the NOAA experts or you do not. By my reading, the NOAA experts have opined that climate change is responsible for significant weather related events. Do you disagree with their conclusions in this regard, yet promote their conclusions that support your position? What a pickle for you. A large dill pickle.

I eagerly await your self-righteous and smugly superior reply. Oh, how I yearn for it. Give it to me Master! Tell me how you are right and I am wrong. Better yet, tell me how the NOAA experts that support climate change are wrong on one hand yet correct when they support your position. I suspect that you believe that you are far more intelligent then any of the NOAA experts or anyone posting on this forum. What say you Master?
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mrgybe



Joined: 01 Jul 2008
Posts: 5180

PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mac wrote:
Where exactly did I "dismiss NOAA as a credible climate source?" Oh, right, I did not.

mac wrote:
Unlike mrgybe's sources {NOAA}, it takes a substantial professional reputation, and great rigor in analysis, to have a paper published by the Academy of Sciences.
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17749
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Unlike mrgybe's sources--denier outfits and junk science. I didn't refer to NOAA--you disparage them unless you cherry-pick, out of context--which you did again. Pants on fire. But then you think you are clear, and informed. Carry on.

No comment on the paper, or how the paper and NOAA both seem to agree that there is a relationship between the drought and climate change, whether it is causal or simply made it worse? Waiting for your peer review.
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techno900



Joined: 28 Mar 2001
Posts: 4162

PostPosted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 4:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

swchandler, here is your post that I responded to:
Quote:
For those of us in the know, the amount of snowfall that Mammoth experiences is statistically far greater than many other areas of the Sierra Nevada range. That's why the snow and the ski season lasts there well into June on a regular basis. It's highly questionable to assume that Mammoth's record of snow depths can taken to represent the Sierra as a whole. Cherry picking at its worst.

No one suggested that Mammoth's snow depths represented the Sierra as a whole. It's so simple, there is NO trend in snowfall records and whether Mammoth has a lot of snow compared to anyplace else has NO bearing on the historical trend. My first two posts with the snow stats had no commentary other than "do you see any trends". All I did was refute Mac's comment about the snow pack being lost to climate change with some facts. Cherry picking? Give me a break.

Now for mac's response, he says that snow isn't falling at lower elevations because of warmer temperatures so the snow pack is declining. OK, fine, but the data to support this would be nice to see. However, if the moisture in the atmosphere continues to drop a varied, but overall consistent amount of snow at the higher elevations, wouldn't it suggest that what falls at lower elevations, either as snow or as rain would parallel what is happening at higher elevations. In other words, still no historical trend to be found.

By the way, no one here has seen me write anything that says that there isn't any climate change going on or that there is isn't global warming. You guys just like to think that all conservatives think identically. Just because I find data that contradicts "the sky is falling" climate change saga from the left, doesn't mean that I don't have an open mind or that I don't believe that it is happening. For me, it's not a done deal, one way or the other.
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