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techno900
Joined: 28 Mar 2001
Posts: 4161
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 Posted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:50 am Post subject: |
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Just speculation..........
Our dependence on petroleum, natural gas & coal will remain significant for decades. Solar and wind will help a very small bit and I think nuclear will have a comeback. Regardless, our (and the world's) need for oil and gas will continue to grow for many, many years. So even though the demand is low at the moment, it would be extremely shortsighted to ignore/stop/slowdown any exploration or drilling wherever we find oil. Environmental concerns should not be ignored, but neither should we go bonkers with over the top environmentalists.
Regarding ANWR - Has Prudhoe Bay been an environmental problem?
I will be dead, but at some point, overpopulation on this globe will be a HUGE problem and will likely correct itself with billions of deaths due to food shortages compounded by environmental/weather disasters. I can't even begin to imagine a solution. |
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mrgybe
Joined: 01 Jul 2008
Posts: 5180
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| Posted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:29 am Post subject: |
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| boggsman1 wrote: | | I would not be surprised if the new crude range for the next decade is 30-50. |
Thank you. I'll put that prediction in the file with your 2010 7 handle on GDP, and the US economic boom you referred to recently. Since you are no longer windsurfing, you may wish to take a break from cross-stitch and explore the cyclical nature of the oil and gas business. Having done that, if you would like to sell me WTI $50 calls expiring in 2025, I'll take everything you've got. |
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boggsman1
Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 9120
Location: at a computer
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| Posted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:49 am Post subject: |
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| Mr G...Our season starts in about 5 -6 weeks, when the Pacific clearing winds start hammering our shores, I'll be ready to go. I am in on your proposal. 35% premium=17.50. |
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coboardhead
Joined: 26 Oct 2009
Posts: 4303
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| Posted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:34 pm Post subject: |
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Exactly the reason I installed solar panels on my roof, will not drive a plug in hybrid and support Colorado's efforts to utilize wind power. Coal is dirty, but efforts to clean it up could be of serious benefit. In the meantime, let's burn as little of it as we can. |
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isobars
Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 20935
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| Posted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:35 pm Post subject: |
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| techno900 wrote: | | I will be dead, but at some point, overpopulation on this globe will be a HUGE problem and will likely correct itself with billions of deaths due to food shortages compounded by environmental/weather disasters. I can't even begin to imagine a solution. |
The solution is at hand, today, at no cost. It's your favorite search engine, and it will erase that fear-mongering, far left, overblown, LONG-debunked red herring from your radar. It's your call whether to base your fear on tin foil hat ramblings in a stupid hobby forum or on sciences such as demographics, birth and survival rates, agriculture and other nutrition/food sciences, farmland sustainability and productivity, etc.
If your fair and balanced review of the risk of overpopulation reaches a different conclusion than mine did, please let me know, as all I ever want is the truth. Nothing else is of any use, whether it's about overpopulation, AGW, medicine especially including cancer treatments, exercise physiology, nutrition, the fundamental differences between the DNC and the GOP, the wind forecasts, the best restaurants and movies, and a few more useful facets of life. I did all I CAN do about overpopulation (had no kids and developed military weapons systems), did all I WILL do about AGW (I'm not swapping my Winnebago for a Prius), and have zero intention of converting to liberalism just to ease their greatest fear: the Right's belief in moderately free enterprise, personal choices, free speech, self-reliance, strong national and personal defenses ... you know, all the things that made this country flourish for so long despite the warts that accompany freedom. |
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mrgybe
Joined: 01 Jul 2008
Posts: 5180
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| Posted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:47 pm Post subject: |
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| boggsman1 wrote: | | I am in on your proposal. 35% premium=17.50. |
The premium reflects a commendable, and entirely justifiable lack of confidence in even the top end of your pricing estimate. |
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swchandler
Joined: 08 Nov 1993
Posts: 10588
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| Posted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 2:08 pm Post subject: |
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mrgybe, the reason I was able to retire at 55 is because I saved money instead of simply spending it because it was there. Similarly, it makes sense to maintain important natural resources and reserves into the future for the benefit of our children and their children. Oil industry profits aren't that important to me, especially in an environment where oil companies are readily poised to export refined oil products worldwide. I don't buy the simplistic talking points and BS about reducing our dependency on foreign oil by eagerly raping and developing our reserves. From what I understand, there are many leases that the government has authorized and issued for development that remain unused. Seems to me that the oil industry needs to catch up on the opportunities that they already have.
Lastly, given the fact that crude oil and many refined oil products are international commodities where the price is driven by market demand and controlled production, development of ANWR or any other sources of oil will not result in lower prices at the pump. Regarding any future development of ANWR, it was interesting to note that any production would be limited to domestic use. If President Obama is smart, any approval of the Keystone XL pipeline should have a similar requirement. While I know those kind of restrictions get under your skin, it would require living up to BS talking points offered by Republicans and the oil industry. |
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boggsman1
Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 9120
Location: at a computer
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| Posted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 2:25 pm Post subject: |
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| Mr G...just a tidbit of info, nothing more. Apple is worth $685 B today, and Exxon $369B....pretty astonishing. The iPhone ASP in q4 was $689...an amazingly high number for a phone, also about the same amount of money that the average family is saving annualy on fuel costs. |
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KGB-NP
Joined: 25 Jul 2001
Posts: 2856
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| Posted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 3:45 pm Post subject: |
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| swchandler wrote: | | mrgybe, the reason I was able to retire at 55 is because I saved money instead of simply spending it because it was there. |
Didn't you have a government job, and not have children? |
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isobars
Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 20935
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| Posted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 4:42 pm Post subject: |
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| coboardhead wrote: | | Coal is dirty, but efforts to clean it up could be of serious benefit. |
You've probably researched this; I haven't. I keep hearing that it can't economically be cleaned much further, but I can't believe that. What's the consensus ... have we reached a point of practical and/or economic diminishing returns in cleaning up coal emissions? Must we really deliberately bankrupt the coal industry for environmental reasons, as Obama promised during his campaigns, or is that purely political? |
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