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Joined: 12 Dec 1999
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 9:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Obama and Kerry say the debate is settled. That's great news, because now we can stop threatening to make U.S. taxpayers put up many trillions of dollars to avert GW, A or otherwise.

How do I figure that? Simple: "The debate is settled" is Leftspeak for, "The debate is not settled, and we're losing."
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 11:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So NW thinks he is posting "pertinent" stuff. In an impertinent way? From a site that is afraid to participate in peer review, or tell us where their funding originates? I doubt it. But perhaps NW can give us an actual argument, show us how his postings somehow add something missing to the debate?

Here's a real source, on the same issues:

The Impact of Climate Change on Natural Disasters

Climate change may not be responsible for the recent skyrocketing cost of natural disasters, but it is very likely that it will impact future catastrophes. Climate models provide a glimpse of the future, and while they do not agree on all of the details, most models predict a few general trends. First, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will probably boost temperatures over most land surfaces, though the exact change will vary regionally. More uncertain—but possible—outcomes of an increase in global temperatures include increased risk of drought and increased intensity of storms, including tropical cyclones with higher wind speeds, a wetter Asian monsoon, and, possibly, more intense mid-latitude storms. (For more information, see Global Warming: Potential Effects of Global Warming)

Diagrams of the effects of rising temperatures on extreme weather events
Changes in climate not only affect average temperatures, but also extreme temperatures, increasing the likelihood of weather-related natural disasters. If global climate change causes the global average temperature to rise (top), there will be less cold weather, and a greater probability of hot and record hot weather. An increase in temperature variability will extend the extremes of temperature, both cold and hot. An increase in average temperature combined with increased variance will have little effect on cold weather, but hot weather will be more common and record hot weather will increase greatly. (Figure adapted from Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis)

Global warming could affect storm formation by decreasing the temperature difference between the poles and the equator. That temperature difference fuels the mid-latitude storms affect the Earth’s most populated regions. Warmer temperatures could increase the amount of water vapor that enters the atmosphere. The result is a hotter, more humid environment. At the equator, where conditions are already hot and humid, the change isn’t expected to be large. At the poles, however, the air is cold and dry; a little extra heat and water vapor could raise temperatures greatly. As a result, global warming may cause the temperature difference between the poles and the equator to decrease. and as the difference decreases, so should the number of storms, says George Tselioudis, a research scientist at NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and Columbia University.
But even as a warming climate might decrease the overall number of storms that form, it could increase the number of intense storms. As temperatures continue to rise, more and more water vapor could evaporate into the atmosphere, and water vapor is the fuel for storms. “If we are creating an atmosphere more loaded with humidity, any storm that does develop has greater potential to develop into an intense storm,” says Tselioudis.
The combined result of increased temperatures over land, decreased equator-versus-pole temperature differences, and increased humidity could be increasingly intense cycles of droughts and floods as more of a region’s precipitation falls in a single large storm rather than a series of small ones. A warmer, wetter atmosphere could also affect tropical storms (hurricanes), but changes to tropical storms are harder to predict and track. Some scientists have speculated that a warmer climate that allows more intense storms to develop would also spawn more hurricanes. Warmer temperatures may also heat ocean waters farther from the Equator, expanding the reach of large tropical storms. But there is little evidence to support the either of these theories, says Kerry Emanuel, a professor of tropical meteorology and climate in the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate.
The one way in which global warming could impact hurricanes is by making them more intense. More heat and water in the atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures could provide more fuel to increase the wind speeds of tropical storms. Warming that has already occurred since 1980 has increased sea surface temperatures 0.3 degrees Celsius, which should increase the maximum potential wind speed of hurricanes by 1 knot, according to hurricane intensity models. But increases that small could not have been observed yet. “At present, hurricane intensity is measured only to an accuracy of plus or minus five knots, so it is not possible to discern any change that might have occurred owing to warming that has already taken place,” says Emanuel.

Even if tropical storms don’t change significantly, other environmental changes brought on by global warming could make the storms more deadly. Melting glaciers and ice caps will likely cause sea levels to rise, which would make coastal flooding more severe when a storm comes ashore. In their 2001 report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated that global warming should cause sea levels to rise 0.11 to 0.77 meters (0.36 to 2.5 feet) by 2100.

I know, that is a source with government scientists at work. Two reasons for NW to reject everything they say as not credible. So tell us, oh wise one, where are they wrong?
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 11:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh, here's some more. Waiting for the rebuttal. I'm sure that Yale is paid off by enviros.

02 JUN 2011: FORUM
Forum: Is Extreme Weather
Linked to Global Warming?

In the past year, the world has seen a large number of extreme weather events, from the Russian heat wave last summer, to the severe flooding in Pakistan, to the recent tornadoes in the U.S. In a Yale Environment 360 forum, a panel of experts weighs in on whether the wild weather may be tied to increasing global temperatures.

That global air and ocean temperatures are rising, and that human activity is largely to blame, is no longer a subject of debate among the vast majority of the world’s climate scientists. But there is no such consensus when talk turns to another important question: Is climate change already causing more extreme weather events, including worsening downpours and flooding, intensifying heat waves, and more powerful hurricanes?

Yale Environment 360 asked eight leading climate experts whether they think there is growing evidence that human-caused global warming is contributing to an increased incidence of extreme weather — and to cite specific recent examples in their answers. Their responses varied, with some contending that rising temperatures already are creating more tempestuous weather and others saying that more extreme weather may be likely but that not enough data yet exists to discern a trend in that direction. Scientists in both camps said two physical phenomena — warmer air holds more moisture, and higher temperatures exacerbate naturally occurring heat waves — would almost by definition mean more extremes. But some argued that the growing human toll from hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and heat waves is primarily related to burgeoning human population and the related degradation of the environment.

Kevin TrenberthKevin Trenberth, senior scientist at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Climate Analysis Section.
Yes, undoubtedly. The environment in which all storms form has changed owing to human activities. Global warming has increased temperatures and directly related to that is an increase in the water-holding of the atmosphere. Over the ocean, where there are no water limitations, observations confirm that the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere has increased by about 4 percent, consistent with a 1 degree F warming of sea surface temperatures since about the 1970s. The human component does not change much from year to year and affects all storms.

In the absence of water, during a drought, the extra heat goes into raising temperatures and creating a more intense drought and heat waves, no doubt contributing to the 2010 Russian heat wave. However, the most spectacular events over the past year have been extreme heavy rains: flooding in India, China, and Pakistan in July and August, and then Queensland, Australia in December 2010 and January 2011. Further, very heavy rains in the U.S. in April 2011, along with snow melt, have also led to extensive flooding. In all these cases, very high sea surface temperatures have undoubtedly contributed to extra moisture flowing into the storms that produced the heavy rains and likely contributed to the strength of the storms through added energy. While perhaps a major part of these high sea surface temperatures was related to natural variability such as ENSO [El Nino Southern Oscillation], a component is related to global warming. It is when global warming and natural variability come together that records are broken. Our current work is documenting the link between the Asian flooding and the Russian heat wave and why the blocking anticyclone that led to it was so persistent.

Andrew Watson East AngliaAndrew Watson, professor of environmental sciences at the University of East Anglia.
My answer to this question as posed is no. However, if you were to ask instead whether I expect that human-caused climate change will lead to more extreme weather events, the answer would be yes.

“Human-caused climate change” is something that will develop over decades to a century (the time scale on which greenhouse gas concentrations are changing), and evidence for or against it needs also to be considered over such lengths of time. So if you are thinking about recent events such as Hurricane Katrina, tornadoes in Alabama or Missouri, flooding in Bangladesh, Southeast Asia or on the Mississippi, my answer is that a few such examples of extreme weather cannot, by definition, be used as evidence for, or against, climate change.

Only by long-term statistics can we demonstrate a change that might be attributable to climate. Therefore your request that we give “an example or two of recent extreme weather events that you think either affirm, or refute, the contention that anthropogenic global warming is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme events” makes no sense to me.

And then this:

Climate change will increase extreme rainfall in certain regions and worsen drought in others claims a new study.

A new report by the US space agency NASA says that temperate regions will experience more drought while the tropics more extreme rains in the future.

The findings are the first to show how carbon dioxide affects a number of different rainfall types from drought to torrential rains.

The study looked at computer simulations within over a dozen climate models.

Researchers found that climate change will increase rainfall as warmer air can hold more moisture.

However, the same phenomenon also means that drier regions will go for longer periods without rain.

More from GlobalPost: Plants combat climate change through cloud-causing aerosols

The Los Angeles Times reported that for every 1 degree Fahrenheit increase in global average temperature, extreme rainfall will increase globally by 3.9 percent.

The results will be felt across the world, say scientists.

"In response to carbon dioxide-induced warming, the global water cycle undergoes a gigantic competition for moisture resulting in a global pattern of increased heavy rain, decreased moderate rain, and prolonged droughts in certain regions," said lead author William Lau of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, in a statement.

"Large changes in moderate rainfall, as well as prolonged no-rain events, can have the most impact on society because they occur in regions where most people live."

He added, "The regions of heavier rainfall, except for the Asian monsoon, may have the smallest societal impact because they usually occur over the ocean."

The study will be published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

More from GlobalPost: Dragon King dinosaur fossils found in northwest China declared a new species

But then NW is worried about the credibility of his sources? Maybe not.
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 3:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote


U. S. Senate Minority Report:
More Than 650 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims Scientists Continue to Debunk “Consensus” in 2008

Over 650 dissenting scientists from around the globe challenged man-made global warming claims made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former Vice President Al Gore. This new 231-page U.S. Senate Minority Report -- updated from 2007’s groundbreaking report of over 400 scientists who voiced skepticism about the so-called global warming “consensus” -- features the skeptical voices of over 650 prominent international scientists, including many current and former UN IPCC scientists, who have now turned against the UN IPCC. This updated report includes an additional 250 (and growing) scientists and climate researchers since the initial release in December 2007. The over 650 dissenting scientists are more than 12 times the number of UN scientists (52) who authored the media-hyped IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers.

Granted, this government report is a few years old and maybe some have changed their mines, but anyone that believes that the final word is in on global warming and its causes isn't considering ALL the information.
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 3:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mac: "But then NW is worried about the credibility of his sources? Maybe not."

Any source that is at least in part funded by the gubment, gives me instant suspicion of their credibility.
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 3:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NW--congratulations on your closed mind. Remind me of what schools you attended so we can blow them up.
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 4:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

nw30 wrote:

Any source that is at least in part funded by the gubment, gives me instant suspicion of their credibility.


How about a source funded by the Koch brothers? Or Fox? Or Limbaugh? Alex Jones?

Are those credible?
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 6:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

How about sources that say on the page that they are biased like Breitbart and Conservative News?
That doesn't seem to bother you. You seem quite annoyed when someone mentions it though.
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 19, 2014 1:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Techno--you so want to believe that there are credible scientists that doubt global warming. If you're going to count on the deniers to produce them, you will be disappointed. Turns out they aren't all scientists:

Results of the Credibility Project

The Senate Minority Report lists 687 individuals with purported climate science credentials as skeptics of the scientific consensus on global warming. We assessed the credibility of the Senate Minority Report primarily by determining what fraction of these individuals could reasonably be considered to be active climate scientists, or scientists working in related fields. The best measure for this, almost universally agreed to in the scientific community, is to determine if these individuals publish articles on subjects somewhat related to climate science in refereed journals. Additional criteria were invoked, including attempts to determine the professional fields of the individuals on the list, as well as education degrees received. The data set we relied upon is accessible on the Credibility Project’s provisional website.

Such a process is liable to small errors of interpretation. Nevertheless, after double-checking our assessment and following this procedure using the best available data, several striking results emerged.

The results of our assessment are summarized as follows:

Based on publications in the refereed literature, only approximately 10% of the 687 individuals could be indentified definitively as climate scientists.
Only approximately 15% could be identified as publishing in fields related to climate science. Examples include solar physicists studying solar irradiance variation.
For approximately 80% of these individuals, no evidence could be found that they had published research remotely related to climate science. Examples include purported meteorologists — the largest professional field found — who have no refereed scientific publications and whose job is merely to report the weather forecast.
Almost 4% have made statements suggesting they largely accept the scientific community’s consensus view that global warming is occurring and that greenhouse gases appear to be a significant cause. (This is a tentative approximation, because these same individuals may have made other statements elsewhere. This nonetheless raises the question whether they should have been included on the Senate Minority Report’s list in the first place.)
In light of these results, it is difficult to think this is a list composed primarily of publishing climate scientists. These results cast serious doubt on the Senate Minority Report’s credibility.

Nor do those scientists say what Imhofe wants them to say. But with his million in campaign contributions from fossil fuelers, he will say whatever they write for him. If you actually want a discussion of what they say, including Roger Pielke, who I have cited here numerous times as someone with something to say, look here:

You're doing a little better than Bard with his claim that all black senators are Republican... But your sources don't say what you think they say. Not remotely.
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 19, 2014 2:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am far more concerned about an EMP event, either natural or military. There are only 3 power grids in the US, and if any one of them were knocked out it would make 3 inches of sea water in 50 years look like a cake walk.

Asteroid hits earth, all life would end.

Militarized small pox....You get the picture. There are hundreds of things that could go wrong, and if Obama would say, we are going to put some food and money into storage for a rainy day, I'd probably vote for him next time. He's just not that kind of man.
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