myiW Current Conditions and Forecasts Community Forums Windsurfing Videos Buy and Sell Services
 
Hi guest · myAccount · Log in
 SearchSearch   ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   RegisterRegister 
Global cooling
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 234, 235, 236 ... 300, 301, 302  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    iWindsurf Community Forum Index -> Politics, Off-Topic, Opinions
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
jpbassking



Joined: 19 May 1998
Posts: 2299
Location: Leo

PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2013 11:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is that boat is half empty or half full?
_________________
{JP:}====****
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
stevenbard



Joined: 11 Nov 1993
Posts: 3600

PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2013 12:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jpbassking wrote:
Is that boat is half empty or half full?


According to Obama, that is Oracles new vessel, ready for doctors to board in their quest to provide better medical care for less money.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
GURGLETROUSERS



Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 1247

PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 12:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

(Will have to keep re-posting since computer playing up.)


Sorry to rain on the warmers 'cock a doodle do' parade after the latest IPCC report, but the sceptics have been beavering away at their sun cycle studies.

Judith Curry (self elected mouthpiece of the movement) is now claiming that Peer reviewed research backs the earlier Russian claim of a cooling phase lasting for at least 20 years, and probably longer. (Russians predicted much longer.)

Furthermore, she claims it is not just imminent, but already under way. (Like the proverbial oil tanker, it takes a while to change, and gather pace.)

(continued)
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
GURGLETROUSERS



Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 1247

PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 12:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What is clear is that the froecasts of the IPCC have been diverging from reality.Dr Ed Hawkings of Reading University published 138 of the computer models on which the IPCC have depended for their statements, and current world temperatures are well below all of them. The divergence is now so great that the climate is cooler than any of them predicted, with a 95% certainty! (Yes, we know about ranges, and medians.)

(continued)
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
GURGLETROUSERS



Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 1247

PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 12:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Curry and Wyatt claim to have identified a climatic 'stadium wave' which can be traced back at least for 300 years.(No computers took this into account. - the Russian claim was on similar lines.) It would mean that the warming which did occur in the years before the 'pause' (the best explanation for it so far) was not due to greenhouse gas emissions, but to this cyclical wave. The prediction from this is that the Arctic sea ice will recover and thicken. (Again, as previously predicted.)

Dr Hawkins (IPCC report co-author) admitted that if the pause lasted another 10 years (with no volcanic eruptions to blame) the global surface temperature would be well outside of the IPCC indicated range.

Curry went further. "The growing divergence between climate model simulation and observation raises the prospect that climate models are inadequate and fundamentally flawed."
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 4648

PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 12:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not quite so quick to gloat GT. Judith Curry is indeed a credentialed scientist with expertise in climate, and a vast array of refereed papers. The kind of skeptic that is good for the science. She is currently involved in an active debate over the capture of heat in the deeper oceans. Most climate scientists attribute the "slowing" of warming (remember that we are talking about less than a degree of heat change over 15 years of a 150 year record) to warming in the deep ocean. She argues, in a comment on an article that is not yet available or peer reviewed, that warming of the deep oceans was greater at times over the last 10,000 years. She uses sedimentary cores to reconstruct a time series of ocean temperatures to reach this conclusion because there are no a actual records. This may well be a promising line of research, and may eventually lead us to a conclusion that the oceans are a huge dampening of warming impacts. News all would love to hear. But the debate is far from settled. (See below). I would also point out that those who favor, or disparage, records from sediment and ice cores are usually those who find the conclusions that fit their biases.

Here is a not about her study and another study:

Quote:
Pacific Ocean Heat Content for the Past 10,000 years
Posted on November 1, 2013 | 486 Comments
by Judith Curry

A paper published Science finds reconstructed Pacific Ocean heat content has been significantly higher throughout the vast majority of the past ~10,000 years in comparison to the latter 20th century.

“The findings support the view that the Holocene Thermal Maximum, the Medieval Warm Period, and the Little Ice Age were global events, and they provide a long-term perspective for evaluating the role of ocean heat content in various warming scenarios for the future.”


Pacific Ocean Heat Content During the Past 10,000 Years
.
Yair Rosenthal, Braddock K. Linsley, Delia W. Oppo
.
Abstract: Observed increases in ocean heat content (OHC) and temperature are robust indicators of global warming during the past several decades. We used high-resolution proxy records from sediment cores to extend these observations in the Pacific 10,000 years beyond the instrumental record. We show that water masses linked to North Pacific and Antarctic intermediate waters were warmer by 2.1 ± 0.4°C and 1.5 ± 0.4°C, respectively, during the middle Holocene Thermal Maximum than over the past century. Both water masses were ~0.9°C warmer during the Medieval Warm period than during the Little Ice Age and ~0.65° warmer than in recent decades. Although documented changes in global surface temperatures during the Holocene and Common era are relatively small, the concomitant changes in OHC are large.
.
University press release
.
From the University press release:
.
A recent slowdown in global warming has led some skeptics to renew their claims that industrial carbon emissions are not causing a century-long rise in Earth’s surface temperatures. But rather than letting humans off the hook, a new study in the leading journal Science adds support to the idea that the oceans are taking up some of the excess heat, at least for the moment. In a reconstruction of Pacific Ocean temperatures in the last 10,000 years, researchers have found that its middle depths have warmed 15 times faster in the last 60 years than they did during apparent natural warming cycles in the previous 10,000.
.
“We’re experimenting by putting all this heat in the ocean without quite knowing how it’s going to come back out and affect climate,” said study coauthor Braddock Linsley, a climate scientist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “It’s not so much the magnitude of the change, but the rate of change.”
.
Though the climate of the last 10,000 years has been thought to be relatively stable, the researchers found that the Pacific intermediate depths have generally been cooling during that time, though with various ups and downs. From about 7,000 years ago until the start of the Medieval Warm Period in northern Europe, at about 1100, the water cooled gradually, by almost 1 degree C, or almost 2 degrees F. The rate of cooling then picked up during the so-called Little Ice Age that followed, dropping another 1 degree C, or 2 degrees F, until about 1600. The authors attribute the cooling from 7,000 years ago until the Medieval Warm Period to changes in Earth’s orientation toward the sun, which affected how much sunlight fell on both poles. In 1600 or so, temperatures started gradually going back up. Then, over the last 60 years, water column temperatures, averaged from the surface to 2,200 feet, increased 0.18 degrees C, or .32 degrees F. That might seem small in the scheme of things, but it’s a rate of warming 15 times faster than at any period in the last 10,000 years, said Linsley.
.
There’s more from Linsley in a Columbia University video here.

.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 4648

PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 12:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://judithcurry.com/2013/11/01/pacific-ocean-heat-content-for-the-past-10000-years/#more-13583

GT--read the series of comments and the interview. Their conclusion is that the resolution of sediment data is on the order of centuries because sediments are bioturbated and thus the sedimentary record is greatly smoothed. That's not to say that it doesn't have value, but it is to say that it would not pick up shorter term trends or chaos.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 13266

PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 2:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

FINALLY, the AGW issue is definitively settled, as reported in the WSJ this week. The sky IS falling, and we have nothing in our future but pestilence, plagues, fewer jobs (really!), decimation of the world's poor, floods, hurricanes, rain on our parades, some clouds, blowing dust, the sun rising in the west, Democrats running all three seats of U.S. power, two people without Medicaid, the complete cessation of wind in the Gorge, and kites taking over Manhattan.

The proof? Computer climate models programmed to predict that the sky IS falling, and we have nothing in our future but pestilence, plagues, fewer jobs (really!), decimation of the world's poor, floods, hurricanes, rain on our parades, some clouds, blowing dust, the sun rising in the west, Democrats running all three seats of U.S. power, two people without Medicaid, the complete cessation of wind in the Gorge, and kites taking over Manhattan.

The only cure is an immediate transfer of $100,000,000,000,000 USD to the IPCC, to be given freely to any other nation that wants it.

My God, people; when will you catch on?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 4648

PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 2:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Iso said: a collection of talk radio talking points, none of them accurate, none of them relevant to the current thread. Cognitive dissonance or just clueless?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
GURGLETROUSERS



Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 1247

PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 4:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for the links Mac. Still digesting all this research, along with the contradictory comments and explanations. Not a simple problem, is it!

One of the points which fits with my (comparatively elementary) geological knowledge is that nature itself is quite capable of large and sudden climatic changes, all on its own. That always stuck in my mind from my student course days. Glad to see it hasn't been debunked yet!

Perhaps the whole issue will be resolved after all (at current rate of research) before I 'pop my clogs'l. (Won't rest easy without knowing one way or the other.) ( Laughing )
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    iWindsurf Community Forum Index -> Politics, Off-Topic, Opinions All times are GMT - 5 Hours
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 234, 235, 236 ... 300, 301, 302  Next
Page 235 of 302

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You cannot download files in this forum

myiW | Weather | Community | Membership | Support | Log in
like us on facebook
© Copyright 1999-2007 WeatherFlow, Inc Contact Us Ad Marketplace

Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group