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WIND WHEN??
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jpbassking



Joined: 19 May 1998
Posts: 2386
Location: Leo

PostPosted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 9:35 am    Post subject: WIND WHEN?? Reply with quote

The meteogram for Leo was predicting winds of 18-25 on Wednesday, now it says 11. How can it be that far off?? Mad
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mkrasnoff



Joined: 10 Apr 2000
Posts: 154

PostPosted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 10:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Smile

Last edited by mkrasnoff on Sun Sep 21, 2008 5:52 pm; edited 1 time in total
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jpbassking



Joined: 19 May 1998
Posts: 2386
Location: Leo

PostPosted: Wed Mar 26, 2008 9:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

iWindsurf for Friday:
Friday, March 28th
Time 12a 1a 2a 3a 4a 5a 6a 7a 8a 9a 10a 11a 12p 1p 2p 3p 4p 5p 6p 7p 8p 9p 10p 11p
Wind (mph) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 0 3 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7
Direction
Temperature (F) 54 53 52 52 51 50 51 52 53 54 56 58 58 57 57 58 58 59 58 57 57 56 56 55
Cloud Cover (%) 64 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rain (in) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Visibility (mi) 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15

National Weather Service:
FRI...W TO NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT. W SWELL 4 TO 6 FT AND S 3 FT.
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geohaye



Joined: 03 Apr 2000
Posts: 1359

PostPosted: Wed Mar 26, 2008 10:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mkrasnoff is right to suggest looking at all models. different factors are taken into account. and weather being what it is, you never know for sure which divergent direction the meteorological soup will turn at the last moment.

iWindsurf gives you the National Weather Service models, as well as it's own take on things. I'd suggest looking at all 3 of these for Friday:

Attachments = screen shots of current:
Leo iW Meteogram Forecast for Fri: GFS (government) MODEL
Leo iW Meteogram Forecast for Fri: NAM (government) MODEL
Leo iW Meteogram Forecast for Fri: WFS (weatherflow) MODEL

Let's hope NAM & WFS (~9 MPH) are wrong this time, and GFS (~18 MPH) is right!



Leo Fri NAM.png
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Leo Fri NAM.png



Leo Fri WFS.jpg
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Leo Fri WFS.jpg



Leo Fri GFS.png
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Leo Fri GFS.png


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shibumi57



Joined: 13 Jul 1998
Posts: 68
Location: San Francisco

PostPosted: Wed Mar 26, 2008 10:28 am    Post subject: Re: WIND WHEN?? Reply with quote

jpbassking wrote:
The meteogram for Leo was predicting winds of 18-25 on Wednesday, now it says 11. How can it be that far off?? Mad


Yawn. Give them a break. It's a forecast. A prediction based on uncertain variables. It's not a promise. It's not a perfect system. I think they do fantastic 80% of the time. The other 20% isn't because they're not working hard. Based on gas prices now, my subscription to iW pays for itself in one to two weekends.

How about you buy so more gear so you can plane at 11?
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jpbassking



Joined: 19 May 1998
Posts: 2386
Location: Leo

PostPosted: Wed Mar 26, 2008 11:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

my point is why is the iWindsurf forecast so different from one day to the next and why is it so different from other forecasts which by the way are free.
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victor



Joined: 03 Aug 1998
Posts: 559

PostPosted: Wed Mar 26, 2008 11:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

yes, most if not all of the data iwindsurf uses to make forcasts is available for free. they do a pretty good job of interpreting and compiling the data and presenting it in a format us knuckleheads can understand.

i'm partuiculary impressed with the "WFS" graph. it has been pretty accurate for me the past few weeks.

the forecast is an educated guess. there aren't too many times that i'm not able to check the real time wind before i head out.
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 14321

PostPosted: Wed Mar 26, 2008 11:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh, yeah ... NOAA is free. Just like NASA and the DoD are free.
There is no free lunch.

\m/
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mkrasnoff



Joined: 10 Apr 2000
Posts: 154

PostPosted: Wed Mar 26, 2008 11:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Smile

Last edited by mkrasnoff on Sun Sep 21, 2008 5:53 pm; edited 1 time in total
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jpbassking



Joined: 19 May 1998
Posts: 2386
Location: Leo

PostPosted: Wed Mar 26, 2008 11:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

"If you want to sail the next few days, keep your car loaded and gassed up. Put all your other plans on hold and keep your eye on the sensor.
This should be the boardhead's mantra. "

uh...excuse me??? life doesn't work that way unless you are single, have a trust fund, or own your own business.

THAT IS WHY I LOOK TO THE SO CALLED EXPERTS TO TELL ME HOW TO PLAN MY WEEK. WHAT DON'T YOU PEOPLE UNDERSTAND ABOUT THAT??
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