myiW Current Conditions and Forecasts Community Forums Windsurfing Videos Buy and Sell Services
 
Hi guest · myAccount · Log in
 SearchSearch   ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   RegisterRegister 
Wow... look what's on tee-vee!!
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    iWindsurf Community Forum Index -> Northwest USA & Canada
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
gmclean



Joined: 08 Mar 2001
Posts: 80

PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 6:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
What's the wind pattern looking like for tomorrow, George? Will it be best in the central or out east?


Sorry I missed this. I don't really stay on top of the wind in the winter. Too many other things going on. Thanks for the skiing tips. There does seem to be a lot to explore but not enough time to do it!

Did you sail in the westerlies last week? It looks like there was some potential out east last Thursday.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 14311

PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 8:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"Potential"?
"Thursday"?

Eastern WA got blown into Idaho almost more days than not the past couple of weeks, with temps in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Spring R Us except for the water temp ... and, sadly, reality. Wink

\m/
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
WMP



Joined: 30 May 2000
Posts: 607

PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 11:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

gmclean wrote:
Did you sail in the westerlies last week?


Went out east both Thursday & Friday, but the wind wasn't the good quality stuff so I opted for the mountain bike. Maybe better wind this week... perhaps we'll get into a good, warm east wind pattern by this weekend, any chance?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
gmclean



Joined: 08 Mar 2001
Posts: 80

PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 11:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here is what I see after a quick look at the models.

The models for this weekend don't look great. There is a weak ridge over the region so upper level flow looks weak and surface gradients look flat or weakly easterly.

The MM5 and ETA for this afternoon show some westerly gradient with the cold front that is forecast to move through tonight. I would guess we will see central gorge west wind late in the day but it will be gusty and inconsistent. Upper flow turns northerly behind the front on Wednesday which should start killing the post frontal west wind.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 14311

PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 2:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

WMP wrote:
Went out east both Thursday & Friday, but the wind wasn't the good quality stuff so I opted for the mountain bike


The guys who sailed at Port Kelley and Roosevelt Th and Fri said it was not only extremely windy but very steady for winter winds ... some sessions were very steady by any standards. Our 240-pound expert finally got blown off the water at PK Th, and everyone enjoyed a long, very steady 3.7 early PM sesh at Rosey Fri with three straight hours of about 33 mph.

\m/
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
gmclean



Joined: 08 Mar 2001
Posts: 80

PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 6:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
everyone enjoyed a long, very steady 3.7 early PM sesh at Rosey Fri with three straight hours of about 33 mph.


I would have guessed it was good judging from the Arlington sensor.

Quote:
Our 240-pound expert finally got blown off the water at PK Th


I went back and looked at the surface gradients as forecast by the 0Z Thursday MM5 and it looked like the surface trough cross the region during the afternoon, coinciding pretty well with the wind graph at PK. What do you look at to forecast for PK?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
gmclean



Joined: 08 Mar 2001
Posts: 80

PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 4:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
The MM5 and ETA for this afternoon show some westerly gradient with the cold front that is forecast to move through tonight. I would guess we will see central gorge west wind late in the day but it will be gusty and inconsistent. Upper flow turns northerly behind the front on Wednesday which should start killing the post frontal west wind.


Not sure what I was looking at yesterday! MM5 did an OK job of maintaining westerly surface gradients for today and it has come together pretty well. I think the ridge did not build as quickly as forecast.......
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 14311

PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 6:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

gmclean wrote:
I went back and looked at the surface gradients as forecast by the 0Z Thursday MM5 and it looked like the surface trough cross the region during the afternoon, coinciding pretty well with the wind graph at PK. What do you look at to forecast for PK?


NOAA forecasts for SSW or SW, maybe S, wind in Pasco. SSW is best, but SW at PK often works fine on the water. S is asinine, worse than NW at The Wall, and WSW is too northerly. Hermiston to Pasco gradients help. MM5 used to work fine anywhere out east, but was absolutely useless last year; maybe it will work this year.

From TriCities, we just wait 'til PK sensor hits 20 from SSW or SW and hit the road; it's just half an hour away, and a fairly steady 20 (the sensor is hidden in a topographical corner, blocked from the real wind) from the right direction usually => 5.2 with chest-high swell. Tip: it's a morning spot. The midday wind direction shift usually cuts it off quite abruptly, which is why we call it the longest and most likely swim in the Gorge. (The river is wiiiiide there and all the swell is on the north side.) The venturi there makes The Wall look like an anthill, so the wind right in the PK bend can easily be 15 kts stronger than the wind one mile further west. Thur, for example, was probably averaging well over 50 kts on the water ... likely stronger than anything we've ever seen at Roosevelt/Arlington. Sustained gusts flattened out the swell we could see and completely obscured the mid-river water with airborne water way beyond liquid smoke.

Mike \m/
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
gmclean



Joined: 08 Mar 2001
Posts: 80

PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 7:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
MM5 used to work fine anywhere out east, but was absolutely useless last year; maybe it will work this year.


I have heard you say this before. I am curious where you see the failing. Is it forecasting too much or too little or is the timing off? Or is there some other failure. I think we could get a response from UW if we could point to some specifics. I have emailed them on other cases where I though the model failed and at least got some explanation of the model weaknesses that led to the poor forecasts.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
WMP



Joined: 30 May 2000
Posts: 607

PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 12:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Taken yesterday afternoon across from Maryhill....




As you can see, wind pattern was too broken up to sail, so I opted for the Mountain Bike again.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    iWindsurf Community Forum Index -> Northwest USA & Canada All times are GMT - 5 Hours
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3  Next
Page 2 of 3

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You can attach files in this forum
You can download files in this forum

myiW | Weather | Community | Membership | Support | Log in
like us on facebook
© Copyright 1999-2007 WeatherFlow, Inc Contact Us Ad Marketplace

Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group