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another blown forecast
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Wind.Man



Joined: 12 May 2001
Posts: 39

PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2007 7:41 am    Post subject: another blown forecast Reply with quote

another blown forecast by Iliesurf. called for ssw winds pushing 20 for most of the day on wed, nov 14. people took off work, and of course, no wind. was only blowing about 13.

now, one day later, when there was supposed to be a switch to the NW, it's looking like an all day sw blow - already blowing 20.

Can't iliesurf get it right so people take off work on the right day?????
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jingebritsen



Joined: 21 Aug 2002
Posts: 2426

PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2007 8:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is this a wave venue? Maybe become skunk proof by going long board? Just a thought.

http://forums.iwindsurf.com/viewtopic.php?t=13382
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Wind.Man



Joined: 12 May 2001
Posts: 39

PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2007 8:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think you missed my point. If the forecast was better, people could arrange to take the day off from work on a day when it is blowing - not on a day when it is not.

It's a bad habit - poor forecasting - and there is never an apology or an explanation

I think if there is a blown forecast, when the next day's forecast comes out, there should be an explanation of what happened and why things did not live up to the forecast.

I have plenty of light wind gear, but that is not the point.
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jingebritsen



Joined: 21 Aug 2002
Posts: 2426

PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2007 8:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wx guessing is all based on statistics and what the air decides to do at any given moment. It is convenient for scientists and sailors to think in terms of schedules and the like. Unfortunately, air is compressable. Push on a column of air and get an infinite number of effects. Push on a column of water, and get fairly concrete results. It's easier to think in concrete terms, but that has it price.

There's a bit of a trap in presenting wind as a scheduled occurance. I've been sailing for 25 years and have seen surprise after surprise happen concerning wx. My point is keep expectations low, get ready to hit the rewind button at work, etc. Deadlines and commitments suck.

I need to find a way to have my habit support me. But, then don't we all? I guess all we can do is keep smiling and trying to get on the water more.
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rswabsin



Joined: 14 May 2000
Posts: 218
Location: New Jersey

PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2007 12:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The only benefit to a skunked session is that you learn a little bit more about the reliability of a forecast wind direction and strength at your local sailing spot for a particular time of year. I've found that southerly wind forecasts for the fall and winter along the east coast (NJ) can be very unreliable for sailing (i.e., the wind comes up for only a short period or is far lighter than forecast). Where as northwesterly's associated with a cold front passage are more reliable this time of year. From what I've noticed, southerlies always are a bit more reliable in the spring, summer and early fall months when it's partly sunny and you get a sea breeze or thermal component to help out. Anyway don't get too frustrated, we've all been skunked may times or simply missed great days due to seemingly lousy forecasting. Best bet is to always try and keep your options open regarding work schedule. If the wind seems sketchy when you wake up, go into work for possibly a half day and watch the wind meters. I'll often throw several sails, a mast and one board in the car for an emergency mid day escape from work in the event the wind does come up. Even if I only get one hour of sailing in, it still is worth it despite all the driving.

Rob
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Wind.Man



Joined: 12 May 2001
Posts: 39

PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2007 2:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i agree with all that has been said. Just a very frustating day - was supposed to be "warm and windy". Thought I would have one last great day before the cold moves in. Not only did I not get it, but the forecast was a day off - today was everything they forecasted for yesterday.

Oh well, that's life when you chase the wind
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ron.c



Joined: 30 Oct 2004
Posts: 1403

PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2007 8:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm with you wind,man

I got skunked at Kalmus yesterday around noon.

Today was the day

RC
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Dunoyer



Joined: 16 Jul 1989
Posts: 95
Location: Watertown, Massachusetts

PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2007 9:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Today did look pretty juicy... I was kept away from the fluid due to knee surgery recovery. There are so many factors that can come in to play to keep you away from the spot on the day, it is a very taxing aspect of this sport, one for which not everyone has the stomach. I've often wondered though if it would be as sweet if it were always there. Guess I'll find out when I move to Maui.... Until then, I will cherish those warm and windy November days when I have no other commitments, and my health is in order...
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jingebritsen



Joined: 21 Aug 2002
Posts: 2426

PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2007 4:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quite a few of my friends that moved to Maui rarely sail anymore. Too much of a good thing, I guess. We non-paradise sailors get intermitant rewards for sailing. They get constant ones. After a while, any sport, done often enough, reflects back on what's going on inside...
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Dunoyer



Joined: 16 Jul 1989
Posts: 95
Location: Watertown, Massachusetts

PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2007 7:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jingebritsen wrote:
After a while, any sport, done often enough, reflects back on what's going on inside...


What are you referring to here?
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