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Daily and extended discussions gone with Santa Ana ?
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johnnycrash



Joined: 23 May 2000
Posts: 28

PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 2:59 pm    Post subject: Daily and extended discussions gone with Santa Ana ? Reply with quote

I guess that officially ends the season - and Godsey et al's
scientific predictions - it would'a been nice to see that it would RIP @ Leo yesterday- is there a cut-off date for the meterological reports? when do we get'em back? It's bad enough that the sensor was down for a long period during "Prime Time"
Just cathartic exercise... Confused
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gregorvass



Joined: 21 Nov 1996
Posts: 1113
Location: Behind You

PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I predict mostly crappy conditions with occasional possibility of marginal conditions. A mild chance for occasionally mostly shitty.

There is a strong chance of unexciting condition, with a possibility for shlogable wind.

Further there seems to no correlation between the meter and actual wind.
Sometimes it will read 10 and be 4.0 weather., and vice versa.



Wellcome to "CUTSIE TOWN", USA

Good Luck
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swchandler



Joined: 08 Nov 1993
Posts: 5775

PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

On the scheme of things, windsurfing is perceived to be a seasonal sport, and for many it truly is. While it would be great to get year round windsurfing focused forecasts, I feel that it's very unlikely.

In reality, I kind of look at the discussion type forecasts as an extra bit of input, but not much more. Really, there still are a lot of great options in the computer generated forecasts. Beyond these great tools, I think that being aware of the weather, and by noticing certain kinds of changes that can occur, makes you more focused overall.

I say this, because even during the prime time when discussion forecasts are available, there are many windsurfing sites that lack sensors. On top of that, one must be aware that wind conditions can differ greatly over relatively short distances (8-10 miles). Being a bit more independent, focused, and adventurous in your view of things is only a good thing.
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flynbri



Joined: 08 May 2004
Posts: 111
Location: Southern Cal

PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:32 pm    Post subject: We are on our own! Reply with quote

Yes I was equally frustrated that no "human" prediction is available again. It has been sailable at Sunset everyday but it's been completely unpredictable. I usually look at this satelite map for clues everyday. If there is more than 15 MB difference between High and Low pressures in your area it will be sailable.

http://virga.sfsu.edu/gif/sathts_pac_snd_00.gif

Otherwise we will be waiting until March of next year to get the old best bet predictions back....that ain't right! Sad
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mkrasnoff



Joined: 10 Apr 2000
Posts: 154

PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:43 pm    Post subject: here today, gone tomorrow Reply with quote

Johnny O - I agree. It would have been more professional of IWS to send a message that the "Daily Dilusion" and "Extended Dilusion" have ended for the season and will resume on a certain date rather than to arbitrarily end one day and then reappear. This is a business isn't it? At least the new sensor is working consistently so we should be thankful for that.

Send me an email with your cell and I can call you with onsite reports if you're interested before making the drive. This is a no fee service and 100% accurate until you get there Smile
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johnnycrash



Joined: 23 May 2000
Posts: 28

PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 5:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks Mitch,

and as I look now Topanga is 16 -- f**k LEO IS DOWN AGAIN
I WANNA A REFUND OR A COUPON FROM SOLO SPORTS FOR A SAN CARLOS TRIP-- I'LL SEND MY CELL TO YOU ON THE OTHER SERVICE
Unfortuantely I have to bring my stuff to work - if I wanna sail after- leaving at 3:15
(I need a van model of the Zenn car (to leave my stuff in) that goes at least 45+mph and can travel 100 miles between charges - When they get that one, I'll be buying it - then I'll have to watch out for those does, fawns and bucks).
Camping at McGrath this weekend - I'll have every toy I own with me!
C-Street?

Later
JO
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mkrasnoff



Joined: 10 Apr 2000
Posts: 154

PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 5:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JO - I jinxed the Leo sensor for sure. Spoke too soon about it being consistent. Rats.

We were supposed to get some mild clearing winds today
Good winds in the channel now, but clouds east of the Islands.
Not enough of a pressure gradient to make it happen.
It will probably get windy later when it's dark Sad

Have fun at McGrath.

P.S. Hide your car keys from Brett (JO's 4 year old son) in case he has a hankering for Applebees Very Happy
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jpbassking



Joined: 19 May 1998
Posts: 2362
Location: Leo

PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 12:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gregor's prediction pretty well covers it for the rest of the year. We'll just have to rely on Mitch for on-site reports from now on. Smile
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 782

PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:43 pm    Post subject: Southern California forecast sign off. Reply with quote

You guys are right, iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com should posted a notice in advance of the date forecasts ended for the season. I will make sure something gets posted next year.

Normally I post a personal sign-off the last day I forecast for Southern California but I simply forgot this year.

So here it is:
Thanks for all your support this forecast season, especially those of you who took the time to send in local knowledge and wind reports. Southern California has complex topography and none of the super computer models can begin to resolve all the details that determine what the wind is going to to each day. So though I spend hours each day looking at all the computer data the bottom line is that it takes years to learn how that data is shaped by very local conditions at each site. With your continued help the forecasts will continue to slowly improve.

Have a great winter and I will see you next spring!

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Baja Guide
mike@iwindsurf.com



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mkrasnoff



Joined: 10 Apr 2000
Posts: 154

PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks Mike.
At least we know you weren't abducted and taken south of the border and held for ransom. If they cut off your finger as proof of your capture you'd have trouble typing in our forecasts Very Happy

We all appreciate your reports even though we gripe and bitch. We have to blame someone and you're the closest link to the wind gods that we can find.
As others have mentioned in posts, we take your input, combine it with our own resources and try to make an intelligent guess on the outcome.

Hope you get some good El Nortes in Baja this winter.
Mitch
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