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9/13 - Boy did iWindsurf get the forcast wrong ...
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advgeek



Joined: 30 Jun 2000
Posts: 83

PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2007 11:49 pm    Post subject: 9/13 - Boy did iWindsurf get the forcast wrong ... Reply with quote

iWindsurf should get some award for the most off forecast for today. This morning forecast was "maybe" 17-19 or something for the central Gorge. By 2:00 it was 35+ with gusts well over 40 thru the corridor. Was at the Event Site maxed out on a 3.7 with white smoke on the water. Bruce Peterson was out on a full cam 6.0 boosting huge airs off the chop on the inside. I have no idea how he hung on to that sail.
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mik377



Joined: 05 Jun 2005
Posts: 51

PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 1:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

rong but rite
Glad I didnt go it looks like it was a tough day to surf anyway with the wind ramping up like that you would need to change sail size every few minutes
The PDX news forecasters missed their high temp forecast by 20 degrees
60 act. vs. 80 pred.
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gmclean



Joined: 08 Mar 2001
Posts: 73

PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 8:29 am    Post subject: Re: 9/13 - Boy did iWindsurf get the forcast wrong ... Reply with quote

advgeek wrote:
iWindsurf should get some award for the most off forecast for today. This morning forecast was "maybe" 17-19 or something for the central Gorge. By 2:00 it was 35+ with gusts well over 40 thru the corridor. Was at the Event Site maxed out on a 3.7 with white smoke on the water. Bruce Peterson was out on a full cam 6.0 boosting huge airs off the chop on the inside. I have no idea how he hung on to that sail.


I was the forecaster who blew it so badly. The fact that the marine clouds never cleared on the west side was the crux of the forecast. All models showed the marine layer breaking up and highs near 80 in PDX but this of course never happened. I have some interesting (at least to me) graphics related to yesterday's wind that I will post later on this thread when I get a chance.

George McLean
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gmclean



Joined: 08 Mar 2001
Posts: 73

PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 9:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here is a beautiful satellite image from the afternoon. You can see the low clouds and the low center SE of the South Oregon coast.





Here is a graph of the gradient from Portland to The Dalles. It was a pretty dramatic build.





This was the result at Swell:





Why did were the forecast so far off? It all hinged on the marine layer not clearing west of The Cascades. Here is the weather geek part:

The following image is the sounding from Salem at 5pm yesterday. This shows the temperature (red line) and dewpoint (green line) as a weather balloon ascends. Notice at the bottom how close the two lines are together. When these lines are this close, the atmosphere is saturated so we have the low stratus clouds.





The following image is the model sounding for the same time period. The temperature is red and the dew point is blue. They are much farther apart which is why the forecasts were for clearing on the west side.





It easy to blame the models in these cases but we can also learn from them and try to understand when they are not giving us good forecasts. That's what keeps this weather stuff interesting......

George MCLean
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bajaguy



Joined: 27 Dec 1999
Posts: 68

PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 9:54 am    Post subject: Put blame where it belongs. Reply with quote

I think George does a pretty decent job of predicting the wind here in the Gorge. But every so often Mother Nature reminds us we don't control the weather, his forcast is a precition based on knowledge and experience...we can't change the wind, only adjust our sails. Let's forget the blame game with the forcasters, and put blame where it belongs...George Bush, not George McLean.
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Berta



Joined: 17 Jun 2002
Posts: 8

PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 10:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thats been the story all summer, this one was finally big enough to write about. If the only thing that changed the outcome were the clouds clearing up or not, then the forecast shouldnt have been so solidly bad as it was.
...at least it wasnt the other way around
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windbabe



Joined: 15 Jun 1999
Posts: 82
Location: Hood River

PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 10:33 am    Post subject: models, schmodels Reply with quote

Sometimes you have to ignore the models and go with gust instinct.

But then, I blew the forecast yesterday too. =(

At least I'm not paid to get it right!
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 13294

PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 10:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Missed corridor forecasts are not uncommon in August and early Sept. when PDX doesn't clear out and heat up as expected. I've seen MANY mid-late-August days years ago -- sometimes several days in a row -- forecast by every source available to be non-sailable ("great golf day") even when we were already on 3.x sails, and many of those were STILL forecast at the midday update to be flukes which would die any minute ... only to have to rig down to 2.8s by suppertime as the desert baked and PDX stayed socked in. For those living or hanging in the corridor, that's a good thing: no crowds. For those who must plan and/or drive, it's a bummer. For the unfortunates who put their van full of WSing gear in the shop for major work this week based on the forecasts, WE'RE SCREWED.

\m/
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rperkins



Joined: 03 Jun 2007
Posts: 8

PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 1:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

no kidding, Sprauge lake in eastern wa was supposed to blow over 10 knots, and we got skunked with next to nothing, it sucked!! all week it had been forcasted from 20+ then down to 12+, so we figured we would have atleast some wind. no such luck.
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 698

PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 1:54 pm    Post subject: Hatch photos from yesterday Reply with quote

After my arms could not longer handle the sail I turned to the camera to get some photos of this epic Hatch day.

There will be some more photos by tomorrow PM at:

windnotes.com

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com



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