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Cape forecast for August 10
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Wind.Man



Joined: 12 May 2001
Posts: 39

PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2007 12:59 pm    Post subject: Cape forecast for August 10 Reply with quote

What's up with todays forecast for cape cod? It couldn't be off any more than it is - goes back to the thread about updates. Today, without question, there should have been an update.
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windnwebsurfer



Joined: 22 Jun 2000
Posts: 5

PostPosted: Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Really glad you've brought that up Wind.Man, I nearly got caught with this unrealistic high wind forecast... I hope the guy responsible for this joke has a good explanation.

I takes me nearly 7 hours to get to the east coast of Cape Cod but I really don't mind making this distance once in a while to catch some good winds and waves out in the Cape... specially when there's not much around my home spots.
I saw this forecast thursday night, I was cranked up and ready to leave. I though at that time the iW meteorolist had seen something before anyone else. I've check again at 7h15 friday morning before leaving, the updated forecast was still calling for NorthEasterlies reaching mid-tweenties by late afternoon friday and then moderate N/NE winds for all day saturday...


Can you imagine, NE winds 24 to 28 knots for Kalmus!!!
That's pretty akward and wild but it would certainly have been good at the Wellfleet beaches...



But still, all other marine forecasts were calling for only 5 to 10 knots!!! By looking at isobars maps I certainly could see why! And as the past days wind graphs shows, that's about what happended, only light winds for friday and saturday... Boy am I glad I didn't go!

Usually, iWindsurf meteorologists get it nailed pretty good for Cape Cod and they will specify when the systems evolution makes the forecasts unreliable. But to be that far on a less-than-12-hours forecast, that's really something!
If it would have been from Matt, David or Kate, I would have trust it a little more but this early weekend forecast was isued by a newcomer... who seems to be quite unexperienced...
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windnwebsurfer



Joined: 22 Jun 2000
Posts: 5

PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2007 8:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes I know that the usual around-15-knots sea breeze surge is not likely to happen at every beaches every day, there's few factors needed for that and it can be very localized.
But it wasn't much question of a sea breeze on the friday forecast but of a "frontal low pressure system approching" developping mid-tweenties winds on the Cape...
And the forecast was putting emphasis on the fact that it would mostly affect the outward regions: "Strongest winds across the eastern and southern portions of the Cape, slightly lighter at Duxbury and Buzzard's Bay"...

Anyway, I'm glad that all other marine forecasters wrote that there was not much hope of more than 5 to 10 knots on friday and saturday, it saved me 175$ of gaz!...
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Wind.Man



Joined: 12 May 2001
Posts: 39

PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Note sure about this guy posting with all the different names, but that's besides the point. I'm really confused on how a forecast can be that far off when every other source seemed to get it right. To me, the worst part is that the 6pm and 6am forecast were the same (what a joke), but there was NO "special update".

There have been complaintes here before about doing away with the 11am update, and iwindsurf has stated that they will always do special updates as needed. Was there ever more of a need than on this day? What are we all paying for. It's one thing to be a little off, but this forecast was an absolute joke.

Dear iwindsurf - thanks for raising your prices and giving us a joke of a forecast on Friday.
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rationalnational



Joined: 20 Apr 2001
Posts: 163

PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

umm yeah. you know these guys do a really good job of providing us withforecasts and one thing I have learned (from 16 years of being out on the other island) is that if systems are coming from the west they come later.
Well Friday filled in around 4-5pm with 20-25 kts from the NE. Very similar to what the forecast was. If I only looked at the airport reading I wouldn't have gone but by being able to look all around and west we were able to have a rough idea of when and if the winds would come.

They came just not to everyone. The same thing happened on Wednesday. Big forecast but a reminder from iwindsurf that the rain could foul things. It did but also gave us 2-3 hrs of 25-35 kts which was fantastic. Once again the bouy and sensor readings helped us make an educated decision.

I know it is tough to live that far away from the ocean and the spots you want to go to but that is a consequence of your locale and certainly not iwindsurfs fault.

and yes bruce is a freakazoid
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Wind.Man



Joined: 12 May 2001
Posts: 39

PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2007 6:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rationalnational-

first things first - I live on Cape Cod. I don't travel hours to get to the beach based on a forecast. I can be there is 5 minutes.

However, I am paying for a service, and that service was TERRIBLE on Friday. I was at the beach, and there was NO wind - not even close to the forecast.

For you to even come close to saying the forecast was right is complete bs.
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rationalnational



Joined: 20 Apr 2001
Posts: 163

PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2007 9:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i have to go change my nappies otherwise i might cry all weekend long...
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windnwebsurfer



Joined: 22 Jun 2000
Posts: 5

PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rationalnational wrote:

Well Friday filled in around 4-5pm with 20-25 kts from the NE. Very similar to what the forecast was.


Gee rationalnational, where did you get this information??? Were you on the Cape last friday?
Except for the remote Buzzard's Bay Buoy that shows a surprising surge in the middle of the afternoon, all stations near the shores reported very little wind, if any at all...
And since Wind.Man was actually there and confirms there was no wind, we can be a little sceptical about your statement.

Stay tuned folks, there might be more to come on this autopsy of a dead wind and investigation on a phoney forecast...
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Wind.Man



Joined: 12 May 2001
Posts: 39

PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 7:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

alright, so, please enlighten us all and let us know exactly where the wind "filled in"....the we can check the graphs to see how full of crap you are. Not sure why you're being so insistant that it wasn't a bad forecast - you work for iwindsurf?

Can't stand when people don't just admit the obvious - bad forecast, plain and simple. Not sure why we're all fighting about it. I actually posted this to see if I got a response from an iwindsurf employee.

I didn't - or did I (national)?
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rationalnational



Joined: 20 Apr 2001
Posts: 163

PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 4:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ok little cry babies. We who live out onNantucket get wind too.

Check the Horseshoe shoal bouy (8/10/07) as it is the indicator for wind in "The Cord of the Bay" which is where many of us sail. This is in Nantucket Sound for any who aren't aware. Looking at the Horseshoe indicator it will verify it filling in nicely at around 1pm. we usually see it a little later as the indicator there is 60 odd feet above the water. The Nantucket land indicator is located at the airport and has never been an accurate meter for wind speeds on the sea.

All of us who sail here know that the Cape almost always gets a stronger Sw'er but Nantucket is only 0-5 kts kts less. Northerlies are always stronger as they have more fetch to get down on the surface.

never worked for iwindsurf but greatly appreciate their efforts. And one thing that has always happened every year is getting skunked when the forecast calls for wind.
My apologies for bursting anyones bubble who thinks this is "crap". Why would we bother in making up a story to inflame a cry baby ?

The truth causes offense again.....
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