Mike Godsey

[sergem]

Mike,

I want to understand forecast geek-speak.
Which books should I read?

Thanks!
Sergey

[jkayes]

I, too, like the geek-speak. The more I know, the better -- especially when trying to predict winter conditions.

I sympathize with forecasters for the Bay area. It's not like Oregon where it's either blowing on the Coast, the West Gorge or the East Gorge (or possibly the entire Gorge). The Bay area has hundreds of micro-climates. To be able to keep up with all of that and be anywhere near close speaks highly of Mike (and the others). If we want better forecasts, then we need help and not just whine. If everyone that sailed were to reply to the forecaster with feedback from the day (e.g., gusty/holey, steady, more onshore than usual), I'm sure that would help.

[npure2001]

Mike, understanding the whys is huge. When I first started sailing here (5 years ago), I had no idea what makes the wind here, expect, oh it's thermal. Understanding the plethora of factors and their general effects on the local wind conditions at my favorite dozen sailing sites through constantly reading the discussion sections made me much more windproof than most. Not only is the go/nogo/where-to-go decision easier, but one makes better choices once on the water (to cope with currents or to find more wind). This is even more true at the beginning and the end of the season.

Cheers,
Gabor

[charlie12]

mike
thanks for the years of forecasts
and thanks for the rides i got from your forecast.
hope all is well

charlie

[carl]

Mike thanks, The geek speek has been great over the years, I've learned alot.

I've also learned by studying the complex bay area weather and sailing it's various locations, that forcasting sailable wind for a perticular site is
difficult at best. Even if you had a forcaster living in a tent on the Berkeley pier, it still would be hard to predict when or if the fog would clear. Those here that are complaining, seem to want a forcaster to tell them to "rig a 5.5 at 2pm". Well that's just not realistic. The best way to maximize your TOW is to learn what conditions make it blow at your sailing site and check all sources of data thru out the day. These IW forcasts are great for picking the general synoptic daily trends and giving some indicators to help you determine when the wind might blow at your site but you're going to have to be more observant of when the fog is clearing and why.

Andy and Windoggie,
Slamming the messenger doesn't help you get a better forcast, knowledgable feedback about the actual conditions does.

BTW It also helps to always have the van loaded and ready at all times!

[windoggi]

Sorry Carl, but I never slammed anyone. I was just observing the discrepency between the forecast and actual conditions I sailed in. Maybe I should have left out the har har har part.

[jse]

How many times when driving and listening to AM radio do I hear the weather forecaster say something like "A bit breezy this afternoon" or "Inland temps in the 80's, by the bay in the 70's and on the coast in the 60's", do I wish they would say "And for you windsurfers and kiters out there, best to head inland...". Having a windsurfing oriented weather prediction is a big help for me, despite the margin of error. That and the sensor readings get me 120+ days on the water.

Steve

[carl]

[windoggi]

No one I sail with ever takes the east bay forecast that seriously. We all know its tricky. So, really, all we pay for here is the sensors...and the snickering posts on this forum.

[boggsman1]

Hey Steve, dont rub it in that you get 120+ days!

Hey Andy and Winddoggie , go share a cup of coffee, you can talk about fog and wind all day!......

Later